Prefeito Paulistano - 2004

2004-11-02T10:36:00.000Z

One blonde loses, another blonde wins; long live the blonde!
With Marta Suplicy (PT) no longer the darling of the PT, it looks like the party will need to look elsewhere. And given the amount of time, money and effort they threw into the Sao Paulo election, how sickened must they be that the name the media wants to talk about is that of Luzianne Lins, the newly elected PT mayor of Fortaleza in Ceara state?

Luzianne was elected without much support from the national PT and the only similarity between here and Marta is the colour of her hair. In an interview with Folha, she claims that the Sao Paulo defeat is ‘irreparable’ and that along with petista victories in Recife and Aracaju, the party’s pole is shifting from the south to the northeast.

Whether Luzianne’s words become fact – and indeed and if the PT will now engage in a period of soul-searching – is beyond the scope of this blog. Regrettably we have reached the natural end of this blog, devised as it was to only cover the election campaign. But worry not, there’s still more post-match analysis to take place before Andrew and I take our leave.

For example, for perhaps the last time, we go to Estadao guru, Fatima Pacheco Jordao. President Lula was one of the biggest losers on Sunday. After having publicly backed Marta way before the election campaign proper began, ‘Because of this, Lula can’t leave Marta isolated in the public sphere.’ And coupled with the defeat of Porto Alegre the analyst predicts there will be big internal changes in the government.

But there shouldn’t be any adverse impact on Lula’s personal position though. Marcia Cavallari, of the polling company, Ibope, says that ‘We need to see who will be [Lula’s] adversaries [in 2006] and in what alliances they will be composed, but Lula will still be a strong candidate.’

For an official statement (Luzianne doesn’t count, given her status with members of her own party) we turn to the PT’s national party president, Jose Genoino. In his election post-mortem we discover that the reason the PT lost Sao Paulo was down to it being inefficient in responding to the opposition. And with regard to Porto Alegre, this master of under-statement went on to say that ‘The people opted for a new experience. The PT has to consider this as natural.’

Meanwhile there is less sangfroid from the former Porto Alegre mayor and current education minister, Tarso Genro, said that he saw the end to the ‘PT’s historic period’. According to him ‘Alliances reached their limit, as seen in the relationship with malufismo in Sao Paulo… Apart from this, a section of the PT in Rio Grande do Sul, which is most closely linked to the party’s origins, suffered defeat. This means that from this moment the PT should start building a new project.’

The problem for Genro is that the system of alliances which provide support for the federal government in Congress don’t exist in the state legislatures or cities. In the case of Porto Alegre, the opposition was comprised of parties which both supported and opposed the Lula government.

Another, more local explanation for the PT defeat in Porto Alegre can be found in the party’s failure to provide adequate health facilities. The party recognised this and defeated mayor Raul Pont planned to put a close ally in the post had he won. His opponent, Jose Fogaca (PPS), exploited the PT over the issue, highlighting that only four 24-hour posts were created in the city over the last 16 years.

Petistas based here in London appear to be in a state of shock, unable to believe the two cities have gone. So you can imagine that they would rather hope the foreign media hadn’t picked up on it. But too late! The Estadao notes that Le Monde, the Financial Times both pick up on the story. And despite the minor matter of a presidential election in the United States, PSDB opposition which will enable them to challenge the PT government in Brasilia. Not sure about the use of the term they’ve chosen though… It conjures up images of defiant last stands by certain dictators. And I’m sure that’s not the image the opposition wants to plant in the public’s mind.

And whereas the PSDB victory may well fortify the party ahead of the 2006 elections, the wider results should also have an effect on their main ally, the PFL. There’s an internal fight going on between the old guard led by aging senator and king-maker, Antonio Carlos Magalhaes, and the younger, rising stars. After ACM’s (as he’s known) hand picked favourite, Cesar Borges, humiliatingly failed to take the PFL leader’s home city of Salvador at the weekend, could he be on the way out?

Out with the old, in with the new
Back in Sao Paulo the PSDB councillors are now considering what Serra’s victory means in terms of budgeting for next year. Already they have identified several differences between Serra’s program and Marta’s budget which was sent to the finance committee before the second round. In particular is the issue of educational centres which Marta promised to build more. Expect those to be chucked out, along with other petista pet projects.

Kiss and make up
And finally old foes seem to be acknowledging the existence of each other. After all the vitriol heaped on Serra over recent weeks, failed candidate Paulo Maluf (PP) took time out from briefing his lawyers over alleged foreign currency movements and financial evasions to send his congratulations to the new mayor. While it’s a decent thing to do, I’m surprised he has the time.

Final word
There is no doubt plenty more which we could present on the election and its aftermath, not least the dynamics this will have on the parties and their relations with each other, both locally and nationally. But as we’ve said since the beginning, this blog was only set up for the purpose of covering the Sao Paulo election (and the broader political scene where appropriate). During this time (just under three months but it feels like more) I hope we’ve offered an English-language insight into a field which doesn’t get much illumination.

No doubt Andrew and I may well return, in a different guise and using a different format. Personally, I will be glad to no longer be juggling two blogs and return to my own personal one, where I hope to be able to post infrequent comments on the Brazilian political scene, as well as on the Brazzil website.

If (for whatever reason), someone ever wants to understand the Sao Paulo election of 2004 this blog will be left as is, to serve as an archive for future readers and students of Brazilian politics. Maybe it’s a little presumptuous to think anyone will ever make use of it, but we can dream – and live in hope that someone will find something of interest in the more than 60,000 words that Andrew and I have penned on the subject since August.

So thanks for reading and goodnight.

2004-11-02T10:32:00.000Z

Interested in Brazilian local elections, huh?
Then you could do no worse than peruse this handy analysis of the second round written for the Citymayors.com site, by their Political Editor Andrew Stevens (who he? - ed).

2004-11-01T10:45:00.000Z

Have modem, will mop-up
With 100% of votes counted, the Folha reveals that Serra's winning share of the vote was 54.86% to Marta's 45.14%.

The electorate has had its say, now the analysts and pundits have theirs:

"I don't think that the PT has suffered a general defeat but the winner of the election is the PSDB," said Roberto Romano, a political scientist at the University of Campinas.

"For 2006, the PT must make adjustments in the area where it is considered strong -- social policy," he said."

Over at our friends Bloomberg:

"Suplicy's pledge to govern for the poorest residents in Sao Paulo cost her votes, said Carlos Lopes, a political analyst with Brasilia-based Santafe Ideias. She funded the repaving of almost 160 kilometers (65 miles) of roads, and the construction of 190 schools by making property owners pay a levy for litter collection and raising property taxes for wealthier citizens."

And with that, I hand over for the last time to Guy. Thanks for visiting.

2004-11-01T10:09:00.000Z

The wooden man takes it
With 99% of the vote counted, it is official: Jose Serra (PSDB) takes the mayoralty of Sao Paulo. With 55% of the vote (3.3 million) against Marta Suplicy’s (PT) 45% (2.71 million), he’s the first member of his party to win a mayoral election in the city.

Serra’s first words were to say that ‘Democracy was strengthened by this vote, despite it being on a public holiday. Sao Paulo’s people preferred not to swap four days of holiday for four years of its future, for four years in City Hall.’

Marta’s response was to say that ‘We did our part for democracy. I want to complement my rival and hope that he will make the best possible government for the city of Sao Paulo.’

Elsewhere the PT lost the southern city of Porto Alegre. The party president, Jose Genoino, admitted that there were ‘two heavy defeats’ and took a philosophical approach, by saying that ‘People learn from defeat and learn from victory.’ President Lula’s chief-of-staff, Jose Dirceu, believed this wouldn’t end in any lasting damage for the PT: ‘Many of us have lost elections and after we were elected to key positions in the country.’

And with the champagne still on ice, attention shifts towards the presidential elections in two years’ time. Noting that Sao Paulo state has now been governed by the PSDB for ten years, the result in Sao Paulo city must also be attributed to the support governor Geraldo Alckmin gave to Serra. Senator Romeu Tuma of the PFL (allies of the PSDB in Congress), said that ‘The PFL and the PSDB will form a joint party line which will open the road to Geraldo Alckmin. Who doesn’t want Geraldo Alckmin as president?’

Before we leave the Sao Paulo poll, it's worth reflecting that the candidate with the least charisma won. What implications does this have for the wider world? With other signs apparent, including the Washington Redskins' defeat at the weekend, the Boston Red Sox victory in last week's World Series, Portsmouth's defeat of Manchester United and a possible left-wing president emerging in Uruguay, what chances another wooden man will come through in the United States tomorrow night?

Before you cancel your tickets...
Andrew has mentioned Porto Alegre so it would be worth dwelling on some of the aftershocks of this result. Just as the international left begins to take notice of the city (and believe me as someone who was born in the place, the city is hardly anything to write home about), highlighting its participatory budget process and home of the World Social Forum, what do the people go and do? Vote out the people who brought it all in. I can well imagine Red Pepper readers (and perhaps editors) gnashing their teeth at the absurdity of such an ungrateful electorate. Still, not to worry: soon after his victory, the newly elected mayor, Jose Fogaca (PPS), promised that he would continue much of the work begun by the PT there as well as form new ones: ‘I want to reaffirm my promise that we are going to work for all…’

New administration, same problems...
While discussion about who will stand for the PSDB as president in 2006 continues, Serra has had an unwelcome introduction to his new role. Soon after midnight more than 3,000 homeless people invaded government buildings in the city, protesting about the lack of housing. The movement is an urban variant on the landless peasant movement (MST), which has realised that the only way to get government to act is to occupy.

Welcome to City Hall, Serra!

Elsewhere...
Further afield, I can give a short analysis of the results from the more than 40 contests which took place yesterday. The winners were the PT and the PSDB, with the petistas winning 11 and the tucanos nine. Both also topped the list of losing candidates, with the PT on 12 and the PSDB on 10. In those where the two parties went head-to-head against each other, the PT won out, by six to four.

Of course absolute figures will not compensate for the defeat of Sao Paulo and Porto Alegre (where the PT’s Raul Pont lost by 53% to 47%).

Furthermore, as the Estadao points out, the PSDB won five state capitals against the PT in three (including – remarkably – Vitoria in Espirito Santo where the PSDB had reigned supreme since 1992).

According to political scientist Lucia Hipolito, ‘The result shows a balance of PT and PSDB forces. The electorate distributed their votes [in such a way] not to create a unified hegemonic force.’

So now you know.

What's it all mean?
I’m sure Andrew and I will come back to analyse the Sao Paulo and other results in more detail later on. But one of the joys of writing your own blog is that you can comment as much as you like. One other issue though which I think we should raise – and which I’m sure either we or someone else will come back to later – is the question of where it leaves the PT. Whereas there seems general agreement of a polarisation between two political blocs, led by the PT and the PSDB, what of the internal dynamics of the former?

Before Andrew and I started this blog I was running pieces on the state of the election campaign on my personal blog. I highlighted a paper written by prominent petista Emir Sader, which assessed the party’s prospects, drawing on Sao Paulo and Porto Alegre. He argued that if Sao Paulo was won it would strengthen the party’s moderate wing and Lula. But if Sao Paulo was lost that would mean a corresponding rise in the fortunes of the PT left.

It’s worth noting that Sader saw Sao Paulo as the variable and a Porto Alegre victory as given. But what happens now that both wings of the party have suffered such a shocking defeat?

2004-10-31T23:20:00.000Z

In politics, expect the expected
In a perfect world, we would have done the running commentary thing as events unfolded (which is quite popular in blogland right now) on here. As it is you'll have to make do with the tres minimalist approach.

Bloomberg report a Serra victory (based on exit-polls at this stage unfortunately) of a margin of 55% to 45%. It also predicts likely defeats for the PT in Porto Alegre and Curitiba.

The Brazilian media are showing definite defeats for the PT in Porto Alegre and a runaway lead for Serra with 90% of votes counted in Sao Paulo itself. I'll pencil in an update when the final result is in, then it's down to Guy (Portuguese) and myself (English) for the post-election mop-up.

Update (23.15): Bloomberg call it for Serra after only 80% counted.
Update (23.30): PT win in Fortaleza, take Campinas and Vitória, but lose Porto Alegre (all Portuguese).
Update (23:45): Marta concedes defeat to Serra after 90% of votes counted, at 55-44 (Portuguese).
Update (00.00): Lula claims "Brazil has once again set an example for democracy". Analysts: short-term damage limited to coalition in Congress, re-election in 2006 dependent on the economy, not Sao Paulo.

2004-10-31T20:04:00.000Z

Where's a fat lady when you need one?
Early exit polls just in suggest that Serra has taken Sao Paulo, according to Bloomberg, while in Porto Alegre it really is down to a nail-biting finish. Reuters, on the other hand, make the following assessment:

"If anything is to be read into the election, analysts say, it is that neither the PT nor the PSDB will come out too far ahead of the other."

News just in... Rocco Buttiglione is a Catholic! Stay tuned for further announcements.

2004-10-31T13:18:00.000Z

We will smash the imperialist pigs at dawn! Oh sorry, trick or treat?
The march of socialism in Latin America continues with news that Uruguay is set to elect a president of the Left, also today. Sunday October 31 will live on in the hearts of international socialists everywhere as not only the day of pagan ritual in the form of Halloween, but also as the day the Left consolidated its grip on Latin America:

"If [Vazquez] wins, he will be the country's first left-wing president - following a trend set by Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Venezuela, all of whom have left-of-centre leaders."

Next stop, Peru and Paraguay!

Columbia might take a little longer.

Anyhow, that's almost Central America. And we don't count Guiana and Suriname, do we?

But unfortunately comrades, the news from Sao Paulo, citadel of Lula's forces of IMF-compliant socialism, is not so good, according to (the US-run) Bloomberg, which predicts a narrow victory for the technocrat Serra and his party of so-called social democracy.

The "projected loss" of Porto Alegre from the PT's iron grip is bad news for PhD students and left-wing journal editors from Hampstead to Islington, Bloomsbury to Aldwych. Take heart comrades, take heart. Its loss will not have been in vain.

2004-10-31T11:45:00.000Z

Final verdict?
On the last day of the election campaign Datafolha published their final poll. Jose Serra (PSDB) is on 54% and Marta Suplicy (PT) on 46%. Both have seen their fortunes rise since a previous poll (Serra on 49% and Marta on 42%) which came out on Thursday. Ibope also publishes their final figures, which is exactly the same.

Admittedly, if the figures exclude those likely to spoil their ballots or still as yet completely convinced of their candidate choice, the figures are slightly lower in the Datafolha poll, with Serra on 50% and Marta on 43%. Bringing in this factor means that Ibope has Serra on 49% and Marta on 41%. But in both cases it’s still an improvement on three days ago.

It still means that Marta will have a lot to do if she’s to close the gap by the end of voting today though.

Reaction
As you can imagine, the PSDB was pleased at the findings while the PT promised to turn it all around at the polls.

When they weren’t doing that the PT was also trying to downplay expectations. In conversation with journalists, President Lula’s chief-of-staff, Jose Dirceu, said that what was important wasn’t the second round in Sao Paulo, but the party’s successes in the first round three weeks ago: ‘In the second round the election stops being party-political. The candidates are chosen on a pragmatic basis.’

Getting around
In terms of actual campaigning on foot, Marta hit the Metro to ask for votes. Meanwhile Serra went out to the east and south of the city where his rival did well in the first round. Part of his timetable included eating a feijoada (beans, rice and plenty of pork) at a restaurant in the east of the city. All in all, a much more preferable way to campaign compared to Marta’s journey by public transport, I think. Following a good lunch, Serra then took a helicopter with his party colleague and Sao Paulo state governor, Geraldo Alckmin, to mass in the south of the city. Which probably gives you some kind of idea what Serra thought of Marta's own mode of transport during the day...

Lula's support
After all the talk about whether Lula would be entering into the Sao Paulo race, we finally have evidence of this support. He called Marta yesterday morning to wish her luck. As regular readers will recall, Lula got into hot water earlier this month after the electoral authorities fined him R$50,000 for speaking out of turn and in favour of Marta at a public event in September. Perhaps the phone call was the safest option for all concerned.
But it’s hardly the kind of public endorsement that I suspect most people were expecting.

Still undecided?
After all the reporting, commentary, TV ads and debates you would think that most people would have made their minds up as to they will vote for. But that’s not necessarily the case, if you’re looking at the Folha’s web pages this morning. They have profiles of both Marta and Serra for readers to look at, presumably before they walk down to the polls.

But really, you’d have to be either frozen in ice or dead for the last two months not to have noticed the small matter of an election going on…

Numbers, lovely numbers
As the polls open this morning, spare a thought for the organisers. Up to 27 million voters will be casting their ballots today in 43 different cities, 15 of which are state capitals. The PT is running in 36 of these contests with the PSDB in 30. In the first round the PT managed to elect around 400 mayors; the PSDB scored double, with 861. But the big winner was the PMDB with 1,040 mayors (although many of these are in smaller, less important cities). And in Sao Paulo state, the PSDB was victorious in 190 cities in the first round; the PT, by contrast, only elected 53. In today’s elections the PT and the PSDB will be facing each other in 10 out of the 43 contests.

Not running smoothly...
But one contest the PT won’t be involved in is in the Sao Paulo state city of Maua. At the eleventh hour the authorities barred the PT’s candidate from facing his Green Party rival in the second round after he was judged to have taken part in some irregular election publicity through a public exhibition on the city’s history. Last night a protest had brought 10,000 people onto the streets, among them leaders from the industrial belt around Sao Paulo.

Let’s just hope these contests are all clean and don’t compare to what has apparently happened in the city of Ruropolis in the south of Para state. Campaign worker Edvan Abreu de Souza claims that he is in hiding after admitting buying 667 votes for an election coalition which included the PSDB and Paulo Maluf’s PP.

...and possible worries here?
Finally, while the debate about electronic voting rages on in the United States, the electoral authorities will checks to make sure that the voting machines in Sao Paulo are working properly.

This will involve running a process of ‘parallel voting’ at some stations in which electronic votes will be accompanied with paper ballots to ensure there are no mistakes during polling day itself. Which does beg the question: what happens if the authorities subsequently find out there were irregularities in their test centres? Will it void the election? You can imagine the lawyers licking their lips at the prospect of fat lawsuits to follow.

2004-10-30T19:13:00.000+01:00

Eve of poll
With minds concentrated firmly on the race for the Oval office this weekend (though we might rightly think of ourselves as a Latin-fused version of Wonkette.com), it's slim pickings in the English language coverage of the Sao Paulo race. Perhaps the month-long gap between voting rounds confused people (lest I sound like an imperialist, why not just have a proper proportional system and be done with it?). Anyhow:

"When Michigan State-educated sexologist Marta Suplicy was elected mayor of South America's largest city, the talk was that her next stop would be Brazil's presidency."

Cough, splutter. Though they are bang-on regarding why Marta will probably lose tomorrow:

"Yet Suplicy, 59, a former TV commentator on sexual behavior, also has grown a reputation for arrogance and aloofness. Moreover, she's done exactly what Brazilian wives aren't supposed to do: shed her popular Brazilian lawmaker spouse for a handsome new Franco-Argentine husband."

But elsewhere, it's merely a case of the mid-term blues for the PT. And the worst part?

"But a projected loss in the party's liberal stronghold of Porto Alegre, where it's ruled almost uninterrupted in the 16 years since military rule ended in Brazil, is the most stinging.

Da Silva's Workers' Party grew out of urban opposition in Sao Paulo to Brazil's long military dictatorship. But its first real victories were in Porto Alegre, the capital of the southernmost state of Rio Grande de Sul. In recent years, the city has become synonymous with the annual World Social Forum, hosting a gathering of left-leaning political groups and global nongovernment organizations.

Porto Alegre swam against the tide of conservative federal governments in Brazil that preceded da Silva's election. Then, heartened by his campaign pledge to create 2.5 million jobs a year, improve social services and narrow the gap between rich and poor, Porto Alegre backed him stoutly in 2002.

Now, a dismayed coalition of opposition groups has grabbed the lead in the mayoral race, not to mention the Workers' Party's basic campaign promise of 2002: change."

OK, the PT might cope with the loss of Porto Alegre and Sao Paulo if it holds the reigns to the presidency, even though in a federalised country like Brazil its political fortunes seem fragmented and to be receding. But to the outside world, particularly the anti-globalisation buffs, it merely demonstrates the Left's perennial ability to lose power in a spectacular fashion.

Enough of my analysis, what about the sentiment on the ground?

"Olivio Dutra, former Workers' Party mayor of Porto Alegre and ex-governor of Rio Grande do Sul state, predicted a comeback victory.

"We have never easily won an election, and isn't that great?" he said."

If you say so. And now for a brave face:

"Marcelo Deda, a former Workers' Party leader in Congress and current mayor of the northeastern city of Aracaju, countered that gains in midsize cities nationwide will offset losses in a few big cities."

2004-10-30T10:48:00.000+01:00

Fight! fight!
President Lula is asking the justice minister to refine the charges against Marta Suplicy’s (PT) campaign manager, Duda Mendonca. He suspects his arrest at a cockfight last week may well have been motivated by his political rivals, who maintain contacts at some levels in the Federal Police.

You can get the left into government, it seems. But getting them to trust the machine of state is another matter entirely.

A PFL congressman, Fernando de Fabinho, would like to legalise all animal fights, from cockerels to pit bulls. ‘It’s animal nature. It’s not cruel. It’s a Brazilian custom not to do anything bad to anyone else. We need to decriminalise it.’

Can I propose a supplementary law which would allow right-wing baiting with a cattle prod as well?

Close, but not close enough
We noted in this column the other day that Marta was closing the gap on Jose Serra (PSDB) – but perhaps not enough before the election takes place. Unfortunately, her rejection level still remains above Serra’s too. Even though it fell by two points to 43% over the last week, Serra’s has also dropped as well, by one to 32%.

As readers may recall, we noticed that the PT look like they may lose Porto Alegre for the first time since taking power there in 1988. As a result the state governor, Germano Rigotto (PMDB), believes that the party is more concerned about doing well in that contest than Sao Paulo. And you can see his point: Porto Alegre is the symbol that the PT presents to the world, as the birthplace of participatory budgeting (now recognised and applauded by institutions like the World Bank and the UN) and the World Social Forum. Polls later showed that the current PT mayor was five points behind his challenger.

Meeting the masses
On Thursday during the religious festival, Serra made a visit to a church in the south of the city. His arrival, coinciding with the mass, caused chaos. He had to take refuge in the back until the service was over before he could address the audience. Meanwhile, on the same day Marta was promising to being more of her educational centres to the centre of the city if re-elected.

She also made plans to carry out a campaign on the Metro on Saturday to try and drum up support among its users. I wonder whether we would be allowed to get away with that on London’s underground. Probably not, but then it wouldn’t make much sense anyway. Can you imagine being a candidate wedged up against someone’s armpit and unable to move, let alone speak? I wonder if Marta’s given any thought to how she’s going to tackle that.

Speaking of London, the Estadao notes that the Financial Times has picked up on the potential problems for the PT in Sao Paulo and Porto Alegre. I wonder whether we can claim to be one of their sources.

It's all overblown
After the barbed criticisms made by Eduardo Suplicy’s girlfriend, Monica Dallari, against his former wife, Marta, Eduardo went public on Thursday. He tried to downplay the comments she had made last week, which seemed designed to weaken and discredit Marta’s campaign.

I’m not buying it though. What about you?

Support comes to Marta from another quarter though. Gilberto Dimenstein, a Folha columnist, believes that Marta is being persecuted by the media because of her feminist image, including her role in breaking up with Eduardo. Unfortunately for her, Suplicy is extremely popular in Sao Paulo.

Grumble
TV Globo has complained to the PSDB not to use images of their journalist Chico Pinheiro or the SPTV logo on their electoral publicity anymore. They claim that their use has never been authorised.

Disappearing voters
Headmaster Serra also had campaign workers out on Thursday handing out leaflets to encourage Sao Paulo residents not to go away this weekend. The leaflets carry the phrase: ‘For Sao Paulo don’t travel this weekend. Swap four days for four years.’

He will be worried, not least by estimates of 1.3 million cars leaving the city for a long weekend, brought about by the public holidays at the end of this week and on Monday. The more who leave, the less will be around to vote for Headmaster Serra – or so the logic goes.

And Paulo Maluf (PP) will be voting as soon as polls open, at 8am before leaving the city to take advantage of the holiday weekend. I suspect that’s one voter the Serra camp would be quite happy to see take the whole weekend off.

On the box
Friday night was debate night between the candidates. It was also the end of free TV publicity for the two as well. During the TV spots Marta used the opportunity to remind the voters about her efforts in creating bus lanes, education centres and the single public transport ticket. Serra told the electorate about his work as health minister, including generic medicines, increased AIDS drug availability and action against cataracts. In the later TV ads in the evening, Marta focused on the narrowing of the polls over the last few weeks, while Serra banged on about health.

The same themes followed in the debate after. Marta talked about her education policies and the likelihood of Serra not continuing them if he was elected. The tucano explored the issue of health in the city and criticised the federal government’s cut in social projects. Refreshingly, there were few personal attacks on display. Then again they were probably told by advisers not to do so, since it would have been churlish and gone down badly with voters this close to polling day.

The debate drew 32 points – in TV parlance – equating to around 1.5 million households. That’s a huge improvement on the first debate after the second round, which then drew only 11 points.

Both candidates will hope they did well. Estadao guru, Fatima Pacheco Jordao, said before the event that the debate would be a huge risk for both and that the candidates’ performances could well have an impact on the eventual result. But Ibope pollster, Marcia Cavallari, doesn’t see the contest as evenly balanced as that. She reckons that a win for Marta would be ‘very difficult’, given the current figures.

Rallies
Friday also saw the two parties put on rallies to raise their candidates’ profiles. The PT brought together 500 people along Avenida Paulista while the PSDB drew a similar sized crowd in other central streets, culminating in the Sa Square.

Dodgy...
The electoral authorities ordered the seizure of leaflets circulating in the city that were decked out in blue and yellow, the tucano colours. The leaflets carried the phrase: ‘Politics is a man’s thing. A woman’s place is in the kitchen.’ The PSDB has contacted its lawyers while the PT’s campaign team deny that this is dirty tricks on their part.

Unlikely...
Finally, the PSDB is trying to ‘paulistise’ the election in Vitoria, Espirito Santo. With the PT leading the PSDB in the second round, the tucanos are trying to discredit the petistas by linking them with Maluf. Which is laughable, as anyone who knows the PT in that state knows: they managed to drum out many of the moderate centrists in their party quite effectively seven years ago.

2004-10-29T22:27:00.000+01:00

The wooden guy's in front... no, not John Kerry
As we enter the polling weekend, I'll do one final entry before the post-election mop-up operation.

Mayor of a World City, pretty significant, huh? 10m people (18m, if you include the hinterland) all dependent on services from education and health to public works and rubbish disposal. But wait...

"A Serra election in Sao Paulo would pave the way for [Geraldo] Alckmin to contend for the presidential nomination for the Social Democracy Party in 2006, said lower house deputy Julio Redecker."

So that's what it's all about, eh? Presidential elections in two years time. The city doesn't even get a look in. For shame PSDB, for shame. But the petistas can still count on the unions, right?

"A Serra victory may raise concerns that the Workers' Party is losing strength less than two years after Lula, a former union leader, swept to office with about 60 percent of the vote, said Roberto Soares, a director for the Sao Paulo Metallurgic Workers' Union. Suplicy, 59, who placed second to Serra in the first round vote, created 12 new taxes and began road improvement projects that exacerbated traffic snarls in the city of 12 million people.

"Lula will end up suffering the damage from Suplicy's lousy administration -- it's a rather strong symbolic defeat for the Workers' Party,'' Soares said in an interview."

The way the Associated Press' syndicated article on the Guardian site talks about it, you'd think the Sao Paulo mayoralty was some kind of runner-up prize for Serra for having lost against Lula in the presidential elections two years ago. It comes full-circle with the conclusion that even if Lula loses Sao Paulo this weekend, he'll still romp home in 2006 as the problem is Marta herself, not the PT itself.

Before Marta throws in the towel and packs her bags for the rumoured diplomatic posting in Paris though, there's one tiny glimmer of hope in this Washington Times article, but not much. I know if I was Lula, I wouldn't want an ex-mayor with that level of profile in my party floating around with nothing to do.

Bonne chance, Marta.

2004-10-28T09:58:00.000+01:00

Closing the gap
New polls came out yesterday. Marta Suplicy (PT) is closing the gap on Jose Serra (PSDB), but it may well be too little too late. Datafolha’s latest shows that Marta’s risen one point to 41% with Serra dropping back two points to 49% over the last week. Over at Ibope, the runes suggest Serra has fallen two points to 49% and Marta has risen by three, to 40%. Since the first round nearly three weeks ago, the tucano’s lead has dropped from 14% to 9%.

Just as in the months before the first round, Marta is closing the gap. But it may well be that the three weeks between the first and second round is just not long enough to close it completely. It also raises the question of legitimacy for the new mayor if he or she doesn’t get more than 50% of the vote. One of the criticisms made against the first Sao Paulo PT administration under Erundina (1989-92) was that she never got a majority of the vote. This meant she was continually challenged by other political forces in the city who believed her mandate was insufficient to justify the policies she tried to drive through.

In response to the poll findings, Marta sounded triumphant. A note from the campaign team suggested that the candidate’s rise could be attributed to the ‘strength of activists… asking for votes.’ Serra meanwhile refused to comment.

I wonder to what extent the slight reversal in his fortunes is due to his head masterly tone in telling the public not to go on holiday over the long weekend but stay in the metropolis to vote.

Maluf as inmate?
Having been accused in Brazil for financial evasion, Paulo Maluf’s (PP) troubles don’t stop there. Yesterday it was reported that he’s also going to be required to make formal statements to the Swiss authorities as well. Assuming the process went through to completion, Maluf could be facing up to five years in prison in Switzerland if he was found guilty of financial crimes committed in the European country.

And given the image of prisons in Brazil – most recently in the film Carandiru – perhaps spending a few years in Geneva penitentiary wouldn’t be such a hardship…

Suspicious?
Two weeks after giving up her mayoral duties, Marta has taken them up once again. Call me a cynic, but it couldn’t have anything to do with being able to use the last few days to attend events and other gatherings where she can be formally addressed as mayor? And surely she wouldn’t try and make any last minute pronouncements or changes at City Hall? Like the one she did last week, when she tinkered with the city’s finances to accommodate payments to certain city-employed workers?

Would she?

Journey north
Readers of this column may well be wondering what the other failed candidate for mayor, Erundina (PSB), has been up to. After all, it’s been almost wall-to-wall coverage of Maluf and his shady financial dealings, but from the other former mayor of Sao Paulo, we’ve heard not a squeak. Well, I am happy to report that she’s not in the city at present, but rather in the more pleasant climate of Salvador. Having decided she wasn’t going to support Marta in the second round, she’s headed north to help the PDT candidate, Joao Henrique Carneiro, in his bid to become mayor this Sunday.

Although I’m not sure having someone who hoovered up less than 10% of the vote is necessarily someone you want to be associated with – especially, when Ibope has you running at just over 70% of the vote against your rival’s 24%.

Then again, it may well be one of those elderly-grandmother-indulgent-young-grandson-things…

Something to cheer...
Finally, again this has nothing to do with Sao Paulo, but it’s worth noting nonetheless. While the PT may well not win Sao Paulo (or Porto Alegre for that matter), a party colleague of Marta’s, Joao Coser, looks like he may well take the Espirito Santo state capital of Vitoria. The latest Ibope poll there shows him on 52% of the vote against the PSDB’s 35%. Tucanos had run the city since 1993 and appeared the dominant force in the state. If the PT wins this will be a remarkable turnaround for a party which all but destroyed itself in 1997 when one of the party’s first state governors, Vitor Buaiz, publicly broke with the party.

When I was out in Vitoria back in 2000, doing fieldwork on the PT’s propensity to self-combust, I recall speaking to trade union official who was convinced that the split would set the left back in Espirito Santo by 20 years. Instead, it looks like it may well only be seven. I’ll be keeping my eye on this contest.

2004-10-27T10:10:00.000+01:00

Crisis in the right
The right doesn’t know which way to go. While Paulo Maluf (PP) is supporting Marta Suplicy’s (PT) candidacy, the Sao Paulo branch of the party has thrown its weight behind Jose Serra (PSDB). Former Maluf voters must be wondering which alliance their party is in exactly.

At least one person knows what to do. Antonio Salim Curiati Junior, Maluf’s running mate as candidate for vice-mayor, has offered this resignation to the PP, to ‘correct the error I committed in accepting the recommendation of the party’s national executive to support the PT… which wasn’t accepted by my voters, team, friends and intimates.’

Crisis in the left
Monica Dallari’s comments about Marta are causing problems within the PT campaign team. Dallari, the girlfriend of Marta’s ex-husband, Eduardo Suplicy, criticised the tone of Marta’s campaign as well as the explicit drive to get Maluf onside. One member of the team complained that Eduardo should never have allowed Dallari to do the interview and that her words may well have prejudiced Marta’s campaign.

After the crisis at the end of last week when the PT campaign manager, Duda Mendonca, was arrested for his involvement in a cockfight, petistas are getting jittery: it’s just more bad news after bad.

In the circumstances, there’s little the candidate can do other than avoid making any response to the accusations.

But one thing she was prepared to talk about was the Supreme Court’s decision to revoke the right to abortion in cases where the foetus is brain damaged. Marta said the Court was ‘wrong’ during an interview with Bandeirantes radio yesterday. Well, that’s interesting and shows her feminist credentials – but I’d be interested to know about her thoughts on Dallari’s comments regarding her campaign.

Perhaps as a concession, Marta also revealed during the interview that she doesn’t feel comfortable having her image next to Maluf’s on the minibuses which are driving around the city in support of her campaign.

If that’s supposed to make traditional PT supporters feel more secure, that the left finds it uncomfortable getting into bed with the right – metaphorically of course – she’s rather hoping for a lot, don’t you think? After all that effort trying to get Maluf to come in for coffee (we’re still speaking in metaphors, OK?) and now she’s saying it was all a mistake. I would say typical, if it wasn’t for the fact that I’ve been suitably ashamed by some of my choices in the part as well.

Marta, you’re not alone. But sympathy will only come if you don’t do it again. Which judging by some of the PT’s bedfellows over the last few years makes me wonder whether it’s a party which rather enjoys the ‘rough stuff’.

Motoring along nicely
Serra meanwhile was yesterday on Eldorado radio to talk about his governing program for the city.

He claimed that his party had the ability to manage the city effectively.

During the time he was on air he said that the reason City Hall hadn’t introduced the single transport ticket was because they wanted all the credit for doing so. According to him, ‘The version I have is that City Hall avoided involving the state government in the single transport ticket because they wanted to do it alone and gain the electoral credit.’

In other words, the PT explanation – that the city and state systems needed to be integrated before the ticket could be introduced – was wrong.

Serra then cancelled his interview on the ‘Roda Viva’ (Live Circle) program on TV Cultura yesterday – after having criticised Marta for deciding not to take part.

Later, during a walkabout in the city, Serra returned to his theme of the week: that the electorate shouldn’t take advantage of the holiday this weekend, but stay at home and vote.

He’s becoming more like a headmaster every day – and not a popular one at that either.

True or not?
Early this morning the PT campaign team had to publish a note to the media, acknowledging that they had published a newspaper, Sao Paulo Verdade (Sao Paulo Truth), which was doing the rounds of the city centre and being sold out of at least one newsstand there. The newspaper didn’t carry any details regarding its publishers, which is required under electoral law.

This could be a story which might run – and cause the PT yet more bad news. Soon after the news broke, electoral authorities obtained copies of the newspaper to determine whether any further investigation was necessary. Not only does Sao Paulo Verdade not include details of its backers, it is designed to look like another newspaper, Agora, and carries a number of anti-Serra articles.

The electoral authorities acted upon the request of Luis Francisco da Silva Carvalho Filho, a lawyer for the firm which edits Agora, complained that Sao Paulo Verdade was designed to ‘confuse the reader’.

Numbers
Finally, three weeks after the first round, more than 27 million Brazilians will be returning to the polls this weekend in 44 cities to decide once and for all, who will be their mayors for the next four years. Sao Paulo state has the most voters this Sunday: 11.7 million in 12 cities, including 7.8 million in Sao Paulo alone.

Always assuming that they heed Headmaster Serra's comments and they aren't sneaking off to the beach to enjoy the holiday weekend.

2004-10-26T09:44:00.000+01:00

Hack work, popularity and debates
Hackers have been at work, changing sections of the City Hall website in Sao Paulo. You just hope they have managed to improve it…

Not content with just asking the public not to go away on holiday so they can vote Jose Serra (PSDB) is busy making himself even less popular. He devoted his TV spot on Monday to the same theme.

Now all Marta Suplicy (PT) has to do is run an ad with footage of beaches and people having fun presumably…

Perhaps now that Duda Mendonca has returned to her campaign team yesterday after his brush with a cockfight last week, maybe he’ll run something similar?

Marta made one observation yesterday: that Serra wouldn’t be in the position he’s in (i.e. ahead of her in the election race) if he wasn’t supported by his party colleague and Sao Paulo state governor, Geraldo Alckmin.

The public thinks Alckmin is doing a good job – which means he’s probably got a better chance of being a presidential candidate in two years’ time than Serra himself.

Yesterday Marta was at an event which drew 1000 artists and intellectuals together with the culture minister and musician, Gilberto Gil. Now that I think about it, chances are that Duda will make use of that footage, won’t he?

The detail of President Lula’s fine continues. The electoral authorities have allowed an appeal made by his contacts against the R$50,000 fine for supporting Marta at a public event to proceed. What chances this all goes away quietly after this weekend?

At the moment it looks like there won’t be a debate on TV Record this week. Representatives from the Serra and Marta campaigns haven’t been able to reach an agreement as to what date to hold the event. And with time fast running out, I would be tempted to ask: is there any point?

But even if the candidates can’t agree, at least two other politicians managed it. PSDB councillor Jose Anibal and PT congressman Eduardo Cardozo appeared on Rede TV’s Show Business program. Both agreed there was polarization between their two parties, but there was also vested interest at work by touting their parties as leading two main blocs in Brazilian politics.

2004-10-25T13:33:00.000+01:00

Miaow!
Cat fight! Cat fight! To liven up Sunday, Monica Dallari, the girlfriend of Sao Paulo senator Eduardo Suplicy (the former husband of Marta Suplicy – PT), has criticised the PT’s campaign and claims that she uses Botox. If that wasn’t enough, she then has a go at Marta’s new husband, the Argentine Luiz Favre, who she says, wants to ‘turn [Marta] into Evita [Peron].

Money matters
Meanwhile, Marta spent the day promising to build new universities in the east of the city during a visit there. As for Jose Serra (PSDB), it was perhaps apt that he suggested reforming the way Sao Paulo manages its budgets. If he’s elected, he’s going to re-jig the whole thing, including the amount spent on the mayor’s cabinet (R$21m apparently). Also, for the cost of one educational centre (Marta’s main claim to success), he says 200 sports centres could be built.

So if Serra gets elected, in four years’ time don’t judge if Sao Paulo has improved by the number of educated people getting jobs, but rather the number of people signing on with football clubs. Or something like that…

A popular move?
Yesterday we mentioned that the public holiday that is scheduled to take place later this week is exercising minds at tucano headquarters. So Serra has decided to come out and say what they must have thought they probably thought about but didn’t want to say: ‘I want everyone to stay in Sao Paulo [this weekend] and vote.’

Hey, Sao Paulo needs a leader and clearly Serra isn’t afraid to speak his mind. But I wonder how many voters being told not to have any fun this weekend may have turned off? I know what I would think – or rather do – if someone told me I couldn’t go to the beach…

TV spots
Sunday’s TV ads saw the PT attack Serra’s plans for governing Sao Paulo, including his analysis of the budget and his plans for the rubbish tax and streetlights. Serra’s meanwhile was a piece highlighting his work as health minister in the federal government (1995-2002), in particular his work against AIDS.

2004-10-24T16:49:00.000+01:00

Cock up
Marta Suplicy’s (PT) campaign manager, Duda Mendonca was arrested at the end of last week for taking part in a cockfight. Along with him was a recently re-elected PT councillor from Rio. Two hundred people were found at the farm where the event took place and Duda was remanded in custody overnight. Later on Friday he was indicted for three crimes against animals.

Jose Serra (PSDB) was magnanimous after the event, promising not to use it against his rival in the election campaign. This gave Marta some breathing space, who was obliged to make a statement later that same day. She said she was against cockfights, but that Duda would continue to work for her. However, he was to be temporarily relieved of direct duties.

But even if Serra isn’t making political capital out of the whole incident, his party colleagues are. The PSDB congressman, Alberto Goldman, claimed that Duda’s arrest in Rio state showed that he wasn’t involved in the PT campaign. By contrast, the Estadao’s political guru, Fatima Pacheco Jordao, doesn’t think that the incident will make much difference to the final result.

Interestingly, when he first heard of the situation, President Lula thought Duda was playing a joke on him – which might give you an insight into the relationship between the two men, ever since Duda worked on Lula’s own campaign two years ago.

Finally for those readers who perhaps feel the main area of concern has been overlooked, the Federal Police informed the press that the birds would receive medical attention.

Lula spotted - in Sao Paulo!
On Saturday morning Lula was finally to be seen in Sao Paulo. He helped inaugurate a new museum of Afro-Brazilian culture. He didn’t make any ‘helpful’ comments about Marta this time around though (last time he did so, he got into hot water and was fined R$50,000 for abusing a public event). Instead he left it to Celso Frateschi, the city’s culture secretary, to make the eulogies to the absent (Marta not being present at the occasion). I wonder how long it takes before Frateschi is landed with a complaint…

Rubbish tax
Serra was busy making new pledges on Friday. He said that if elected he would get rid of the rubbish tax which Marta introduced two years ago. Within two years the tax would be gone, which would mean two million people would no longer have to pay it (currently varying between R$6 and R$133. He's also worried about the public holiday coming up this Thursday – the Day of the Public Sector Worker. He and elements within the state administration are concerned that with many people taking the weekend off – which would most likely include many of his middle class support – that could have an impact on his share of the vote on Sunday.

TV on Friday
Friday’s TV spots involved Geraldo Alckmin making a plug for Serra in the tucano effort while Marta’s concentrated on her involvement in improving the city’s educational infrastructure. Meanwhile, it looks like there will be a debate between Marta and Serra on TV Record on Wednesday evening, after an agreement appeared to be hammered out the same day.

Maluf in the dock
The Paulo Maluf (PP) saga continues. On Friday a judge blocked his accounts and those of 36 others, including his wife and children. It is part of the investigation into an alleged R$5bn of public funds which disappeared during his time as mayor of Sao Paulo, between 1993 and 1996. He is also being asked to explain the removal of US$440m abroad, to foreign accounts which he claims not to have. Naturally, Maluf thought the process ‘absurd’ and pledged to challenge the decision.

Campaign tears
Friday also saw Marta continuing her visits to shopping centres, this time with the recently elected PT mayor of Recife, Joao Paulo, in tow. The following day she was visiting old people and residents of north-east origin, as well as yet more traders and businessmen.

But it wasn’t long into the day before the tears started coming. Marta found herself crying at the meeting with the elderly, complaining that she was being ‘persecuted’ by the media. Well, you know what they say: if you can’t stand the heat…

Serra was having very little of it as well. ‘What’s being judged is her administration,’ he said when asked to comment on her tears, captured across the press later on.

But for a change there appeared to be a truce of sorts in the Saturday spots on TV. Marta’s focused on the changes and development in the city, including the creation of new jobs. Meanwhile, Serra’s focused on his program for governing Sao Paulo.

No impact
Following the polls carried out last week, it seems clear that the attacks being made by the PT against Serra’s running mate, Gilberto Kassab, are having little effect. The purpose of the PT strategy was to try and draw a connection between Serra and the late, unlamented administration of Celso Pitta (1997-2000), in whose cabinet Kassab served as secretary for planning.

Brazilians abroad
Finally, although Andrew and I are ploughing a lonely furrow with this election in Sao Paulo, the Folha brings forth an article which flags up another poll which will be taking place at around the same time – the US presidential election. And chances are that of the roughly 31,000 naturalised Brazilians in the US, many won’t be thinking about Brazil when they make their choice between Bush and Kerry on Tuesday week.

OK, it’s got nothing to do with the Serra-Marta race, but cut me some slack, will you?

2004-10-22T10:33:00.000+01:00

Stalled figures
Yesterday Ibope and Datafolha both published their latest polls. According to Ibope, compared to last week Jose Serra’s (PSDB) figures have fallen from 52% to 51%, but he still maintains a strong lead over the current mayor, Marta Suplicy (PT). Marta saw her share fall from 39% to 37%. In contrast Datafolha shows that while Serra fell one point to 51%, Marta has risen, from 40% to 41%. The Ibope poll is subject to a 3% margin of error while Datafolha has a variable 2% at the edges.

And both candidates are starting to suffer from a war of attrition. Rejection levels have risen, to 45% for Marta and 32% for Serra. Furthermore, 60% of Paulo Maluf (PP) voters won’t vote for Marta, while only 28% will do so. And despite it all, Maluf still went and spent R$21,000 at an event with 500 malufistas yesterday, to lobby on behalf of Marta.

Whether Marta is improving her position or not (and the rejection levels will certainly not help), what seems clear is that Marta isn’t shifting sufficient votes towards her despite the fact that there’s only just over a week to go.

2004-10-22T10:14:00.000+01:00

Music and minds to the rescue
Heeding the call, the culture minister and musician, Gilberto Gil, will be heading to Sao Paulo with several intellectuals to show solidarity with Marta. After his Green Party’s decision to throw its lot in with Serra last week he’s got some contrition to make.

But notably absent on the list of grandees visiting is the name of President Lula – who we keep hearing, will be supporting Marta at some point but never shows. You almost imagine Marta and her main congressional supporter, Aloizio Mercadante (the government leader in the Senate), to be sitting on a bench, waiting for the president, who never comes.

Then again, after yesterday there may be good reasons why President Godot – sorry, I meant Lula – is being coy. The electoral authorities upheld the R$50,000 fine meted against Lula for his over-enthusiastic endorsement of Marta at a public event in Sao Paulo before the first round. It was quite clear to: five judges voted in favour, with only one against.

Asking the wrong people
It looks like Marta is chasing the housewives’ vote. For the third time in a week she’s been campaigning in shopping centres in the city. As well as having photographs taken, she gave out autographs. Unfortunately for her, at least three people walked out of the shops she was just about to enter on hearing of her approach. And after spending several minutes trying to persuade some men drinking beer at a bar to vote for her, she found out they weren’t from Sao Paulo at all.

It’s all a bit hit-and-miss sometimes, isn’t it? But I’m amazed the centres’ owners let her campaign within the building. During my own election bid we had to stand outside on the pavement, sometimes in the pouring rain.

Medical attention
The Sao Paulo state government, led by Serra’s party colleague, Geraldo Alckmin, is going to hold a big health-focused event on Saturday, eight days before the second round. The governor hopes to raise the profile of health, which has been the main label on the Serra campaign.

Call me cynical, but doesn’t the PSDB grumble and complain when the federal government carries out shows of support for its candidate in what is supposed to be a local election?

The words pot, kettle and black are bouncing about in my mind, screaming for attention.

Politics on TV
Alckmin also got a right to reply during the PT’s TV spot last night. Earlier in the week the party had time taken away after making accusations against the governor which displeased the electoral authorities. Of the rest of the TV coverage, the PSDB used it to attack Aloizio Mercadante while the PT focused on showing Marta’s contribution to education in the city.

Serra - working class hero
Serra announced his support for some of Paulinho’s election proposals. Paulinho, you may recall, was the PDT candidate and threw his support behind Serra soon after the first round. He’s managed to extract commitment from Serra to bring in unemployment passes and solidarity centres for the workers if he gets elected.

As if to reinforce his image as a champion of workers' rights, he also visited a factory where he made the interesting announcement that they shouldn’t be allowed to just up and leave Sao Paulo. Given that he used to be a minister in a neoliberal government, I’m really keen to hear how he proposes to put that aim into effect.

Still, I can’t be too critical of the man. At the very least, he was in a factory, meeting workers at 5.30 in the morning – when most of us are still in bed and shocking radio listeners when he gave a 9 o’clock interview: ‘Campaigning at 5.30 in the morning?’ was about all the incredulous interviewer could manage. But it’s OK. Apparently Serra can manage on four and a half hours of sleep – which makes him similar to that another former neoliberal enthusiast, Margaret Thatcher.

Meanwhile Marta announced an administrative change down at City Hall, despite the fact that she has officially renounced her position as mayor until the election. When asked, she refused to say whether the measure had been taken on her vice-mayor’s initiative.

2004-10-21T09:31:00.000+01:00

The president makes a move - nearly
Well, it looks like President Lula is finally going to Sao Paulo. But it seems that he’s going to be busy opening new medical and car centres. Based on his last speech in favour of Marta Suplicy (PT) at a public event in the city, what chances he makes few references – if any – to the election?

When the campaign team suggested that Lula would be getting involved to help out his party colleague, I’m sure many assumed it would be a lot more hands-on.

Still Marta’s rival, Jose Serra (PSDB), managed to get heated up by the visit. ‘He should be working for the country. He shouldn’t be working for the PT candidate,’ he said. Although after Lula’s R$50,000 fine the other week, does he really think that Lula will be gunning for Marta?

And sure enough, ‘can’t speak about politics’ when he’s doing these occasions. But it still begs the question: when’s he going to enter the campaign and how? There’s only a week and a half left.

Meanwhile, PT activists were organising themselves to support and protect him. After the shenanigans that have gone on in recent weeks with petistas heckling and provoking Serra’s campaign team, this looks like fore-planning. After all, there couldn’t be anything worse than news footage of Lula being booed in Sao Paulo?

Could there?

TV politics
Yesterday afternoon’s TV spots included Serra (PSDB) taking the health theme forward, while Marta used hers to let paulistanos know about how loved she is by foreigners – Kofi Annan and the mayor of Paris were shown talking about her.

In the evening Serra showed his own biography and linked Marta to Paulo Maluf (PP). No doubt there are some in the PT who are wishing they hadn’t sought his support so publicly, especially given the current investigations into his financial dealings. Marta, meanwhile, gave her space over to the government leader in the Senate, Aloizio Mercadante, who spoke in her favour.

The PT’s campaign team had their knuckles wrapped by the election authorities once again. They have been told they cannot use TV publicity in which they claim that Serra ‘has never stayed in any [official] position to the end.’

Meanwhile Marta’s ex-husband, Senator Eduardo Suplicy, has waded in with ideas of his own. He’s asking the campaign team to make use of their son’s talents. Supla is a musician whose tunes would be an ideal accompaniment to his ex-wife’s TV spots.

Marta then decided against going on a special program of interviews on TV Cultura’s ‘Roda Viva’ (Live Round). Serra criticised her attitude and said that he will go on, although he was coy about his own intentions to attend a debate on the TV Record channel a day earlier.

Making sense of it all
The Estadao guru was back in the press again. Fatima Pacheco Jordao claims that the public will be confused by the argy-bargy going on between Marta and Serra over the figures of former mayors, Maluf and Celso Pitta. And you can see her point. More Maluf voters are likely to vote for Serra, yet Maluf has given his support to Marta. Marta is attacking Serra’s running mate for vice mayor, Gilberto Kassab, for having been planning secretary in the unlamented mayoralty of Pitta. But as the PSDB points out, Pitta was the protégé of Maluf. Who supports Marta.

Confused? You should be.

Jordao thinks the PT strategy is quite weak, that it has little substance. At its worst, it might actually lose the PT votes and it’s unlikely that the public’s collective mind has been changed.

But even though Serra may be the beneficiary in this election, Jordao doesn’t think that it will be his name which can challenge that of Lula. If anything, she reckons the key individual will be that of Sao Paulo state governor and Serra’s party colleague, Geraldo Alckmin.

2004-10-20T09:47:00.000+01:00

A case to answer?
A case was put against failed candidate Paulo Maluf (PP) by prosecutors in front of the relevant authorities yesterday. He’s alleged to have been involved in administrative impropriety during his time as mayor of Sao Paulo (1993-96), which involves more than R$5bn.

Adilson Laranjeira, Maluf’s press secretary, welcomed the case, which it would enable the former mayor to defend himself against ‘crimes he never committed.’ But he then went and spoiled his copybook by alleging that the move was also decided to discredit his boss and benefit Jose Serra’s (PSDB) chances at the same time.

And presumably they also behind the death of Princess Diana and JFK as well…

I presume Maluf’s going to have a lot to answer for though: a truck had to deliver 10,000 cheques and 20 kilos of documents from Swiss banks to the authorities to wade through.

And just when you think it couldn’t get worse for Maluf, later on the same day Federal Justice (what a name!) stated that he had become a defendant in another case which involved foreign currency evasion. According to the investigator, Maluf illegally sent the sum of R$440m abroad – which just happens to be one of the cases of administrative impropriety against him: R$440m appeared to go missing from public funds.

It just gets murkier and murkier…

Holding back...
The government’s leader in the Senate, Aloizio Mercadante, announced yesterday that votes on public private partnerships – which is causing such angst amongst the left – won’t be voted on in the Senate for another three weeks. It won’t escape people’s notice that that’s conveniently after the second round elections.

Cheer up
Meanwhile recently re-elected Rio mayor, Cesar Maia (PFL), was making the paulistanos feel good about themselves. He was supporting Serra’s candidacy and was reported to say that ‘Rio depends a lot on Sao Paulo. Sao Paulo is the great economic tractor of the southeast. When Sao Paulo does well, Rio does well, when Sao Paulo grows, Rio grows too.’

Tucano thinking
Following Marta Suplicy’s (PT) commitment to freeze bus fare prices at R$1.70, Serra had to go along with the same statement yesterday. However, the catch is that he will do so, assuming the figures are correct. Not only does this enable him to stick like a limpet to one of Marta’s more valued contributions to the city (i.e. better public transport), it also implies a degree of doubt about PT estimates and figures and offers a get-out-clause as well.

After all this scheming, it’s a wonder that these Machiavellian politicians have time to press the flesh!

Petista angles
Marta’s campaign has been given authorisation by the election authorities to increase her budget for election expenditure from R$15m to R$19m. But it may well be a case of good money after bad if she doesn’t start to change around the voting intentions in the city.

Instead her campaign seems to be getting more aggressive and increasingly shrill. And despite the government having to make a statement contradicting her on Monday – that a Serra victory would mean less funds for Sao Paulo – she’s gone back and said exactly the same thing yesterday. You do have to wonder whether taking this line is particularly productive; not least because by using the government as a threat, Marta might very well affect voters’ impressions of President Lula (who has been receiving favourable poll ratings over the last few months).

Putting his foot in it
Finally, while the public seem to approve of him, it seems Lula can do little without courting controversy, whether it be as a consequence of Marta’s comments or not. After being fined R$50,000 for improper use of a public event where he praised Marta’s achievements as mayor in Sao Paulo, he’s being asked to explain his conduct once again. This time it’s alleged that he used public space to support the petista candidate in the city of Londrina in Sao Paulo state.

2004-10-19T10:12:00.000+01:00

General tone
Marta Suplicy (PT) has been defending the tone of her campaign, including the attacks she’s made against Jose Serra’s (PSDB) running mate, Gilberto Kassab. She’s been suggesting that if Serra gets in it will be akin to a return to the mayoralty of the previous mayor, the unlamented Celso Pitta (1997-2000). But she’s also saying that it’s not all aggression, but a presentation of the positive effects of her work for the city as well.

Marta later said that if Serra was elected, he would have problems getting funds from the federal government. That must have been embarrassing to party managers. Soon after, the minister for political co-ordination, Aldo Rebeldo, had to make a statement, saying that the government wouldn’t discriminate against mayors of any persuasion or party.

No comment
The PT is also pulling rank and trying to discount any possibility of them actually losing Sao Paulo. Jose Dirceu, President Lula’s chief of staff, said yesterday that ‘it still isn’t decided’ and that only an ‘idiot’ would talk of defeat. That is, of course, if he or she decides to speak about it publicly.

Of course that wouldn’t stop the former PT senator, Heloisa Helena. The politician, who was chucked out of the party earlier this year for repeatedly voting against the government, said she wasn’t surprised by the alliance made with the PP. If she had the vote in Sao Paulo she would vote for neither Serra nor Marta and instead leave the ballot paper blank.

Guilty
The electoral authorities banned a piece of PT publicity which should have gone out on Saturday. In it the party draws a comparison between the Sao Paulo state governor, Geraldo Alckmin, and the former president, Fernando Henrique Cardoso, claiming that both ran down Sao Paulo through privatisations.

They also fined an elected tucano councillor, for posting irregular campaign material on a street light. Juscelino Jose Ataliba Antonio Gadelha was fined R$5,320.

On the box
Monday night’s TV spots involved Serra promising to increase the number of Metro lines while Marta had the leader of the government in the Senate, Aloizio Mercadante, singing her praises.

Both campaigns are also discussing how best to manage two debates next week. They want to try and avoid having them one night after the other, on two different channels. Rede Record and TV Globo will each be broadcasting a debate, but you do have to feel sorry for the poor people of Sao Paulo. All this wall-to-wall coverage is doing my head in – and I’m several thousand miles away.

Isolated?
The PSDB’s allies in Congress, the PFL, are sending a delegation of senior politicians down to help Serra in his campaign. It will be spearheaded by the recently re-elected mayor of Rio, Cesar Maia, who won overwhelmingly in the first round.

You have to wonder when the government’s ministers are going to finally get around to giving Marta a hand as well. Readers of this column will know that last week it seemed they were going everywhere but to Sao Paulo.

Still, at least she’s giving it a go by herself. Yesterday she announced that she would freeze the cost of a bus fare, keeping it at R$1.70 next year. That is, if she’s re-elected of course.

Citizens, do your duty!

Line of the day
But the best line surely came when she went to some churches in the east of the city yesterday. Marta said that she ‘can’t do miracles.’ Well, yes, obviously. But I’m interested to know whoever suggested that she could?

2004-10-18T16:45:00.000+01:00

Impress your friends with knowledge of Brazilian local elections
Lula's slap on the wrist concerning impromptu outbursts in favour of beleaguered mayoral candidates is so last week. This week it's Serra's lead over Marta.

Worryingly for the Red Pepper brigade, as ex-polytechnic lecturers in North London don't have votes in Brazil, it looks as if the PT could lose Porto Alegre, according to online news service Bloomberg:

"In Porto Alegre, the capital of Rio Grande do Sul state, in southern Brazil, opposition candidate Jose Fogaca of the Popular Socialist Party will win the runoff vote against Workers' Party candidate Raul Pont, Folha de S. Paulo newspaper reported, citing a poll by Ibope. Fogaca has 51 percent of votes compared with 39 percent for Pont, the paper said. In the first round of vote, Pont got 37.62 percent of the valid votes compared with 28.34 percent by Fogaca, the paper said. The Workers' Party has governed Porto Alegre for the past 16 years, the paper said."

More worrying is the quality of reporting on Bloomberg, the blog said.

Though perhaps the red-green types at Red Pepper (though a rival publication, Green Pepper, was spotted at the European Social Forum this weekend) might take some solace from this article on the emergence of the Brazilian Patrido Verde (Green Party) over at InfoBrazil.

2004-10-17T13:28:00.000+01:00

Where's Lula?
After the speculation about whether or not President Lula will be supporting his party colleague and current mayor, Marta Suplicy (PT), in her re-election bid, the party’s campaign strategist has weighed in to quell discussion. Duda Mendonca says that Lula will enter at the ‘head of Marta’s campaign’ and the relationship between president and mayor has ‘never been so good.’

Well, that’s just wonderful, but there are only two weeks to go until the second round. And where exactly is the star of the show?

On Saturday he was spotted not in Sao Paulo, but near Brasilia, dressed in a hat, white shirt and shorts with dark glasses.

Was he trying to hide?

And if Marta was hoping that she might get support from other members of the party, no such luck. While Lula is hanging out in Brasilia (why?), his ministers are all out hunting for the vote in places other than Sao Paulo.

On the box again
Friday was the first day of free election publicity for the second round. Marta’s TV ad included an attack on Jose Serra’s (PSDB) health policies and a list of the boroughs where she had done well in the first round: ‘You are my army in the second round,’ she said. Meanwhile Serra was busy taking about planning and the need to ‘put people first’ in his spot. But don’t worry. All this anodyne stuff will soon be at an end and everyone can then return to their telenovelas in peace – or at least until 2006.

Meanwhile yesterday’s spots both led on health, Serra using footage of hospitals and Marta getting the endorsement of Antonio Palocci – a doctor himself and Lula’s finance minister (which presumably offers the underlying message of financial security and balance as well).

Meanwhile the Folha comes up with some astounding news: the two candidates manipulated statistics to fit their own arguments during Thursday night’s debate.

Can you imagine that? The thought that a politician might stoop so low!

The problems of globalisation?
For the last two days I’ve been attending the European Social Forum here in London (I’ve still got my wristband on in the vain hope I might get a concession at a gig later this evening). At one of the events we heard of one activist who had been campaigning for several years against the use of electronic voting machines in Brazil. Well, he might be pleased to hear they are being moved – to Equador for their elections today.

Perhaps that wasn’t quite what he was hoping for when he started the protest…

Comical Paulo moment
There’s dissension in the ranks. Despite the national PP and Paulo Maluf’s support for Marta, not everyone is happy. The PP council candidates who didn’t get elected to City Hall published a letter on Saturday stating their support for Serra instead.

Which does beg the question: where does the PP sit? Although you wouldn’t have known that Maluf had given Marta his support, if you check Marta’s website.

Pleasingly, Maluf hasn’t lost his Comical Paulo touch despite being investigated for tax evasion and money laundering news this week and the statement he made to police. He claimed at a press conference that his support for Marta embarrasses many in the PP.

Funny that. I thought it was more the other way round.

New poll
Saturday also brought more bad news for Marta. A new Datafolha poll shows that Serra is still leading Marta, by 52% to 40%. Both have risen one point since last week. Those who don’t know or are planning to vote ‘white’ (a way of registering abstention) total 8%. More galling for petistas though, is the fact that having courted and got right-wing support in the guise of Maluf, of those who voted for him in the first round 69% will go for Serra compared to 16% for Marta.

As if that wasn’t bad enough, two-thirds of voters believe that Serra will win, while the PT is asking the electoral authorities to allow it to increase its budget in the contest from R$15m to R$19m.

The Datafolha poll also shows that 96% of paulistanos will also be staying in the city to vote in the second round, despite there being a public holiday on the day after the election (as well as one in the week before – the Day of the Public Worker on the 28th).

And worried eyes in the PT will be looking at the article in the New York Times which controversial journalist Larry Rother has published in the Sao Paulo titled ‘Brazil’s Leader Shows Gains Everywhere Except Where It Counts Most’. Rother, some readers may recall, was responsible for an article earlier this year which suggested Lula liked a drink or two.

Nothing to see here!
Still, there’s precious little for the left of the PT to celebrate either. While it’s not related to Sao Paulo, an Ibope poll shows that the leftist petista candidate, Raul Pont, is trailing in Porto Alegre by a similar margin, by 51% to 39%. If the PT loses Porto Alegre it will be the first time it has been out of power down there since 1988. And its role as the symbol of the new democratic left, including the participatory budget and the World Social Forum, will take a huge knock.

Debating points

2004-10-15T09:51:00.000+01:00

The main reason for people not voting for Jose Serra (PSDB) was his performance as health minister between 1998 and 2002 and his current proposals. Meanwhile, people’s main grievance against Marta Suplicy (PT) is the creation and raising of taxes during her time as mayor. But on the positive side two-thirds of the public associate health with Serra and Marta with education.

The PT seems to be putting more distance between itself and Marta’s campaign. Yesterday President Lula heard recommendations that he should not record any TV sports supporting her. Some advisers also recommended that she should not be given a ministerial appointment in the event of her losing the second round.

Even if that is what the PT is doing, they won’t change their presentation. The leader of the government in the Senate, Aloizio Mercadante, insisted that Lula would enter the campaign to give Marta his full support – which leaves us still in the dark.

Readers will know that the Greens put their support behind Serra this week. But it’s not as clear as that. Gilberto Gil, the musician and culture minister, made a statement in Beijing yesterday saying that he was ‘enthusiastically supporting Marta’. He was forced into saying it, after having praised Brazil’s AIDS policy, which was developed under Serra.

Last night was TV debate time between Marta and Serra. Marta attacked Serra for his choice of vice-mayoral candidate (a former planning secretary in the little missed Celso Pitta administration from 1997 to 2000), the former PSDB government and Serra’s involvement in the city blackout three years ago following a botched privatisation. For Serra’s part, criticisms were made of the ‘paralysis’ in the metropolitan train service and the lack of street lighting. He also grumbled that Marta hadn’t answered the questions he put to her afterwards, claiming that her marketing manager, Duda Mendonca, had told her not to.

For his part, Mendonca said after the debate that he though the atmosphere tense. But that was understandable, given the nature of the contest and the profile of the candidates before assuring everyone that Marta would win. As for the figures, the Folha reports that over half a million households watched the debate.

And finally the news that everyone’s been waiting for – and which after this week the PT must have been dreading. Failed candidate Paulo Maluf (PP) has offered his personal support to Marta.

It just doesn’t make sense does it? Your top man, brimming with charisma and favourable poll ratings cuts and runs, and you find your support comes from a man with more bank accounts, money laundering and tax evasion investigations than you can shake a stick at. No wonder Marta’s slogan is ‘a woman of courage’. She needs it, what with Lula’s reticence and Maluf’s ‘helpful’ intervention.

Greens, police and 'dodgy' polls

2004-10-14T09:30:00.000+01:00

They aren’t very big, but the tucanos will be celebrating it as a coup over the PT. The Greens have given their support in the second round to Jose Serra (PSDB), despite the fact they are in the Lula government, with their most prominent member, the musician Gilberto Gil, currently occupying the culture portfolio.

The perks of being a candidate are about to roll around again this week. From Saturday candidates in the second round can only be arrested if they are caught in the act of committing a crime. After yesterday’s news, Paulo Maluf (PP) must be wishing that he was in the second round and relatively immune from the rough and tumble of investigations.

Maluf may be gone but he’s certainly not forgotten. Having provided us with plenty of comedy Comical Paulo moments, the PT’s national president, Jose Genoino, seems keen to take on the mantle. Like all people behind in the polls, he’s urging ‘caution, because polls can have many divergences and contradictions.’

Even if he is making a pitch for Maluf’s mantle, he’s still a little off. A little more certainty and conviction would be helpful. But as a first go, it’s pretty good.

Meanwhile the Estadao analysis guru Fatima Pacheco Jordao reckons that the polls are pointing to a Serra win. ‘Time is short for Marta [Suplicy – PT], but she still has a chance,’ she says, ‘because the candidates have ten minutes of TV time every day, when the candidates can make their arguments.’

Sounds to me like she’s trying to hype up this contest when most of the action is taking place around Maluf’s difficulties and who the other unsuccessful candidates will support.

Jordao's comments came before the news that free TV and radio time is to start from Friday. But at least it won’t be wall-to-wall as it was before the first round. And it’s only three weeks till voting as well.

Speaking of Maluf, both he and his party colleague and councillor, Brasil Vita made statements to the police yesterday. Vita claims that he knew he was being recorded during his meeting with former council president Armando Mellao over ways to blacken Serra’s name during the election campaign and won’t contest the tapes.

Meanwhile Maluf claims he had no knowledge of the meeting which took place between the two. Although it’s not clear whether Vita is retracting a statement made on the tape that he had spoken to Maluf and negotiated a sum of money to Mellao to blackmail Serra. Needless to say, further investigation is expected to take place.

Later on, Maluf suggested that the whole thing was a tucano conspiracy against him.

2004-10-13T10:25:00.000+01:00

Shady dealings
The main news yesterday was failed mayoral candidate Paulo Maluf (PP) and his son being indicted by the federal police. They are charged with five crimes including money laundering and tax evasion.

The Folha outlines the reasons for the investigation, charting money transfers by Maluf and his family through Swiss bank accounts during the 1980s and his time as mayor of Sao Paulo (1993-96).

On Monday Maluf met the national executive of the PP to discuss his announcement of support for the second round. However, it was all over-shadowed by the police investigation, resulting in him refusing to answer questions to journalists. Nevertheless, he insisted there was no justification behind the story. Meanwhile the PP’s national executive took the further step of not making any statement on the proceedings.

And what of the expected beneficiary of PP support in the second round? You have to wonder whether the PT is laughing or crying at the news. Maluf being investigated on the eve of his giving his support to Marta Suplicy (PT) would present all the wrong headlines for a party that prides itself on its clean hands. How else then to explain Marta’s statement that ‘The PP announced its support. The candidate hasn’t said it yet – that I know. I have no idea about it [receiving his support].’

Call me cynical but surely Marta and the PT aren’t trying to put clear water between themselves and the man they courted before the first round? I’m sure the left in the party will have something to say about this. But needless to say there will be some in the party nervously watching the PP. Later on Pedro Correa, the national president of the party, said that Maluf’s indictment shouldn’t prejudice his eventual support for Marta.

Another poll - still no change

2004-10-12T11:22:00.000+01:00

After Datafolha’s poll on Sunday, now to Ibope’s yesterday, carried in both the Folha and the Estadao. It looks like the two polls are in broad agreement with who the current leader is: Ibope gives Jose Serra (PSDB) 52% of the share of the vote against 39% for Marta Suplicy (PT).

But will Marta’s announcement to cut the tax on motoboys be too little, too late to change the figures around?

2004-10-11T22:03:00.000+01:00

Motoring down the wrong path
Marta Suplicy (PT) has laid out part of her second round strategy: she’s going to attack Jose Serra (PSDB) in the poorest areas of the city and present herself as their champion – areas which should be hers anyway.

She’s also trying to make common cause with motorcyclists by attending a meeting of 1500 of them in the east of the city. Marta was accompanied by her son, Supla, and had to listen to the complaints levelled against her, including her tax on motoboys, or couriers.

Later she showed that the ghost of Paulo Maluf (PP) had not yet departed the stage. After his party signed on to Marta’s re-election bid, the current mayor took onboard one of his main policy ideas in the first round and has done a havaianas (flip-flop) when she promised to stop the tax on motoboys. But where you give with one hand you take with the other. As taxes on motorcyclists go down, taxes on services will go up. I wonder who will complain now.

Serra, as you might imagine, is a little annoyed. After saying he’s been in favour of its repeal, she’s gone and pulled the carpet from under him. What can he offer?

Perhaps he hopes the internal grumbles within the left might make voters pause before casting for Marta. Today Heloisa Helena, a senator who was expelled from the PT earlier this year, has been protesting about the direction the party is taking.

Then again, without people like Heloisa, people might think the PT more electable. Looks like its back to the drawing board for Serra.

2004-10-11T09:23:00.000+01:00

Circling the wagons
The PT’s think tank has put the position of the party on the line. According to the Periscopio bulletin put out by the Fundacao Perseu Abramo, the second round in Sao Paulo will determine ‘the brightness of the PT star’ (a reference to the party symbol) and will decide the political fight and transformation from neoliberalism to a republican paradigm over the next years.’

The think tank believes the rise of the PSDB in the first round can be attributed to an aggressive campaign and an unfavourable media. Indeed, the article suggests that the media has been taking on an almost oppositional role to the government.

Good to see that you can get lefties into government, but the suspicion of the press never goes away.

2004-10-10T16:12:00.000+01:00

The one that got away
Paulinho (PDT) has signed up to Jose Serra’s (PSDB) side for the second round. He made his statement on Friday, claiming that ‘The PT has done Brazil badly… We fear them getting even more power.’

Is it finally over?
Hopefully, things are all wrapped up now. On Friday President Lula was fined R$50,000 for eulogising his colleague and current Sao Paulo mayor, Marta Suplicy (PT) at a public event last month.

Lula, speaking in response, said that he knew it was ‘disagreeable’ and that it would ‘always generate polemic’, before grumbling out the following metaphor: ‘in Brazil everyone has a holiday, but not the president.’

As someone who has spent my holidays campaigning, I can assure you, it really isn’t time off. He also made it clear that he will appeal the decision.

Gone elsewhere
It looks like Duda Mendonca won’t be helping out Marta during the second round. The national PT leadership has contracted him and his marketing team to shore up their campaign in Porto Alegre, where the current petista mayor, Raul Pont, is also facing a second round challenge.

Not happy
Staying in Rio Grande do Sul state (where the PT establishment has always been slightly further to the left than elsewhere), divisions are opening up within the party. On Friday the state leadership published a statement condemning the inclusion of the PP in the petista alliance for the second round in Sao Paulo.

Would this be an inappropriate time to remind readers that Duda Mendonca helped get Paulo Maluf (PP) elected as mayor of the same city back in 1992?

Shady dealing
But you can sort of see the gaucho (inhabitants of Rio Grande do Sul) petistas' point, if the allegations made on Saturday are true. Yesterday saw an intriguing story in the weekly magazine Isto E, which the Folha covered. The state prosecutors in Sao Paulo apparently have recordings in their possession which suggest that a PP councillor, Brasil Vita, supposedly tried to help dress up a testimony which would have prejudiced Serra’s chances. Three weeks before the first round of voting a meeting between the former city council president, Armando Mellao and Vita took place.

In March of this year Mellao was arrested by the Federal Police on the charge of extortion. Freed after 49 days he said he was the victim of a malufista plot and made a statement to the prosecutors accusing Maluf of having diverted millions of dollars in public funds – a charge that Maluf denies.

However, according to the supposed recordings, Mellao and Vita discuss making a press statement that the charges against Maluf were false and that he had received money from Serra to attack him. The tapes apparently suggest that Vita discussed the deal with Maluf before approaching Mellao.

Criminal prosecutors have asked Maluf and Vita to make statements next Wednesday. Both of them are being investigated for possible administrative abuses.

Latest figures
Datafolha’s first poll of the second round shows that Serra is leading Marta by a 12 gap margin, by 51% to 39%. Ten percent of the electorate haven’t yet made up their minds. For once the polls seem broadly in line: before the first round the last analysis suggested that Serra had 51% and Marta 40%. But Marta has had a bit of bad luck since the first round: she failed to get Luiza Erundina’s (PSB) direct support and then heard the PMDB was going to be ‘independent’ while the PDT has plumped for Serra.

Even more unfortunately for Marta, her rejection level is far higher than that for Serra: the poll shows that 42% wouldn’t vote for her compared to 29% for Serra. Ninety-one percent of the electorate has made up his or her mind how they will vote.

2004-10-09T15:29:00.000+01:00

Now there's a funny thing...
The Brazilian local elections campaign so far, wrapped-up, in English, over at the City Mayors site. It's written by their Political Editor, Andrew Stevens.

Meanwhile, Lula's brush with the electoral authorities over his recent pro-Marta outburst at an official function, which cost the President R$50,000, is mopped-up by the BBC, The Washington Times and The Guardian.

2004-10-08T14:40:00.000+01:00

Heavy going
Oh dear. The PT is finding it hard to pay its bills, both in Sao Paulo and for other campaigns around the country. The local party in Sao Paulo are also looking to increase the amount they are spending on getting Marta Suplicy re-elected, which will now cost more than the initial R$15m.

Worryingly, there may be a problem developing between the PT and the marketing manager they contracted, Duda Mendonca. He’s not been paid and is in Salvador at the moment. You have to wonder whether he’ll come back if there’s no money on the table.

More dirt?
As if that wasn’t enough, the PT now has to contend with the fact that the American journalist Larry Rohter will be compiling a report on the election in Sao Paulo for the New York Times. Rohter shot to fame – or notoriety – earlier this year when he was initially expelled and then allowed to remain for reporting President Lula’s drinking habits.

You do wonder what line he’s going to take. Would it be too much to suggest that he might not get too much co-operation from the PT then?

With one bound he was free...
Still, good news for Lula was on hand yesterday. The electoral authorities decided not to proceed with the case made against him, for endorsing Marta at a public event. The investigator, Claudio Fonteles, said that Lula hadn’t committed a crime and therefore had no case to answer.

Those pesky upper-middles
The president of the city council, Arselino Tatto (PT) has conceded that it was the upper middle class vote that reduced the number of petistas in City Hall from 18 to 13 on Sunday. Now they have to try and win them over if they are to have a shot at overturning Jose Serra’s (PSDB) first round victory.

Promises, promises
Oh dear. Serra looks like he’s going for the Paulo Maluf (PP) vote in a very malufista kind of way. He made a visit to the neighbourhood of Sao Joao Climaco, which has strong ties to Maluf, and promised to build them a bridge.

When there’s nothing else you can provide, promising a grand projet always helps!

Cock up or conspiracy?
It looks like a pigs’ breakfast. That’s about the only kind thing I can say about the electoral alliances which have been made or not made over the last 24 hours. Early yesterday the national executive of the PSB threw itself behind Marta’s candidacy. That seemed almost a foregone conclusion, not least because the PSB is in the governing coalition in Congress.

But then it was made clear that the party would have to make do without its mayoral candidate, Luiza Erundina. She said that she wouldn’t support either one of Marta or Serra in the second round.

Then the PMDB announced it would be keeping her company, along with the Sao Paulo branch of the PSB. Although both parties are in coalition with the PT nationally, they made a song and dance about the approach being ‘coherent’.

OK, so let me get this straight then: the national PSB and PMDB support Lula’s government. But whereas the national PSB backs Marta, the PMDB doesn’t. And neither does the PSB’s candidate.

I think I just about get it.

More straightforward?
At first glance the deal-making looks simpler on the right hand side of the political spectrum. The PP’s national executive has recommended that its mayoral candidate Paulo Maluf support Marta in the second round. But this is where it might all get complicated. The question must be whether Maluf will be able to say the words. Given the criticisms that he has heaped on Marta in the past and her comments about him, I suspect any public show of support to be distinctly chilly.

One more to decide...
And with the PSB, PMDB and PP all having nailed their banners to the mast, today it’s the turn of the PDT? Which way will they eventually jump? Going on the current words of its mayoral candidate, Paulinho, it’ll either be ‘neutrality or Serra’.

2004-10-07T09:43:00.000+01:00

Squeezing the vote
Some bad news for Marta Suplicy (PT) yesterday as yet more analysis by CEBRAP carried in the Folha. Jose Serra’s (PSDB) margin of victory by eight points was helped not only by the solid showing he put in the PSDB strongholds, but also in taking votes in seven areas of the city which the PT should have been expected to do well.

Emmanuel Publio Dias, a political consultant and professor at ESPM (Higher College of Publicity and Marketing) suggested that ‘This growth by Serra can be credited to the work of councillors or the role of local politicians connected to the PSDB or the state.’

Toninho Paiva, a PL candidate who received the highest vote for his party in the so-called petista areas, believed that the PT failed to engage with local opinion, including the churches and local organisations and groups, which held them back.

But now the good news: of the 14 areas won by Marta, 2.6m voters chose either her or Serra. Only 479,000 voted for a defeated candidate – and 283,000 of those (59%) voted for Paulo Maluf (PP). In other words the vote has already been squeezed there. By contrast 772,500 votes in the 27 Serra-won areas went to defeated candidates.

Nothing to see here...
As we pointed out yesterday, the PT is trying to distance itself from possible defeat in Sao Paulo lest it devalue the overall success of the party on Sunday. The Spanish newspaper, El Pais, has run a story suggesting much the same thing, although I’m sure that the petista leadership won’t be too worried: I don’t imagine El Pais has a particularly large circulation in Sao Paulo.

But before anyone makes the obvious comment, neither do we!

One down...
The PSB leadership met in Brasilia yesterday afternoon to consider whether it should give its support to Marta in the second round. You would have thought it was a mere formality, given the close association between the PSB and PT. Renato Casagrande, the PSB leader in Congress (and a former vice-governor of the PT administration in Espirito Santo), said on a phone to the Folha that ‘We are having talks today. The PSB has to reach a decision. The party is favourable to the PT in principle.’

Meanwhile Marta’s former husband, the PT senator Eduardo Suplicy, will be meeting the PSB’s defeated mayoral candidate, Luiza Erundina. It’s believed she’s against the idea of throwing the party’s weight behind the PT. Casagrande explained why: ‘Erundina isn’t the problem. She’s not refusing to give her support. She feels uncomfortable supporting either Serra or Marta because during the campaign she made criticisms of them both.’

Politics: it really can be ugly…

Further reporting throughout the day suggested that the PSB was keen to come to a decision and would meet with its executive at 10am this morning. After this Erundina and her financial backers and allies, the PMDB, will make a statement together.

...one to go
It’s almost like the love that dare not speak its name. But it finally seems to have come out into the open. The PT president, Jose Genoino, said yesterday that the party won’t veto or exclude anyone from consideration when it comes to forming alliances for the second round. As if to make it known in no uncertain terms, Genoino said that ‘We want the vote of everyone who voted for Maluf. And we want him to declare his vote for Marta.’

After the apparent silence which has been bubbling around the two camps for days, is this finally a chance for Maluf to come in from the cold? Still, he and Marta will have to work hard with each other. Expect to see them on a platform soon, smiling through gritted teeth, not least because of sharp criticisms they have made of each other in the past.

And the reaction?
I can’t work out whether Serra’s comment on Maluf’s possible support for Marta is resignation or complacency. This Folha piece indicates that Serra reckons Maluf’s support for the PT would be natural. Is he suggesting it makes sense after the attacks which Maluf threw at him throughout the campaign? Or has it got to do with his view that both he and Marta are unprincipled? Probably a combination of the two, I suspect.

Public grievance
Lula is in hot water again. After his ill-judged comments supporting Marta at a public event, members of the opposition have been grumbling about his use of the presidential palace to meet with the PT’s recently elected mayors and discuss election strategy. His response was not may have to change after the PSDB executive announced that it was considering whether he had abused his public position for electoral-political ends. They may refer Lula’s use of a public building for political meetings to the authorities.

Sao Paulo: gateway to the north
Contrary to what you might have thought, Sao Paulo is no longer in the southeast of the country. ‘Sao Paulo is the biggest northeast city in Brazil and its important that two of its most loved mayors [Marcelo Deda from Aracaju and Joao Paulo from Recife] come here and talk about the importance of this city continuing the work we’ve started,’ said Marta. This follows on from yesterday’s report that President Lula wants to get ministers and mayors helping out in the second round; and in particular the PT strategy to promote itself to northeast immigrants in the city, as Lula successfully did two years ago.

Does this mean we can expect Marta’s election jingles to be comprised of forro and country music? Heaven forbid…

2004-10-06T10:27:00.000+01:00

Strengths and weaknesses
The Folha publishes an analysis of the voting breakdown across the city last Sunday. While Jose Serra (PSDB) may have beaten Marta Suplicy (PT) by eight points, the report states that there is a geographic divide hidden within the figures.

There are parts of the city – mainly the marginal areas – which gave Marta more than 60% of the vote while a similar finding was found in favour of Serra in the more urbanised sections. Marta won 14 of the 41 electoral zones and saw her share of the vote go up in these areas compared to her previous election bid, in 2000.

Carlos Ranulfo, a political scientist at the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG), said that he thought the situation ‘typical of the PT approach… Erundina had an administration focused on the periphery [between 1993 and 1996] and now, Marta’s investment is also making its way there.’

Serra’s victory in the remaining 27 zones was good news for the tucanos. Compared to the 2000 poll their share of the vote also went up. Argelina Figueiredo, a researcher at Cebrap, said that ‘Serra won [Paulo] Maluf’s [PP] voters. He’s not a malufista, but he has his characteristics associated with income and schooling, without being ideological.’

The analysis of Maluf’s result is still ongoing, but at first sign he did worst in the areas of the city which Marta won. This might suggest that rather than choosing Serra, many would-be Maluf voters decided to go for Marta in the first round. Maluf’s vote was concentrated in the centre-east sections of the city, which will no doubt be targeted by both Marta and Serra over the coming weeks. ‘Marta has a strong and large base in the periphery, but Serra built up his in the centre and captured Maluf’s vote too. This explains his victory,’ says Argelina.

But will it be enough in several weeks’ time? Will former Maluf voters plump for Serra or go for Marta?

Distancing himself?
President Lula has conceded that it will be ‘very difficult’ for Marta to win the second round. This follows assumptions by the PT leadership that Serra has a probable 15-point head start on them.

This will have an impact on the way he assists the campaign in the city. According to an aide who spoke to the Folha, he will be in Sao Paulo to support Marta this Friday and on the 23rd. But on both occasions he will avoid becoming too much like a cheerleader; he doesn’t want to be associated with failure if Marta loses.

And why not? After all, he’s got other successes to celebrate, not least more mayors, candidates in the second round of several key cities. If Marta loses expect the PT to highlight the achievements they have made outside of Sao Paulo.

Of course, I may be sounding just a little cynical…

As if to give more substance to the line, the re-elected PT mayor of Belo Horizonte, Fernando Pimental, made exactly that point after a meeting in Brasilia: ‘I think we’re going to win, but even if Marta doesn’t, [you mustn’t forget that] the country is bigger than Sao Paulo.’

Looking for a new idea
So what will the PT do to make the second round a possible electoral prospect? Pull out the public security card. Initially having begun the campaign talking about health before shelving it when findings showed it as working to her opponent’s advantage, this week Marta will focus on public safety. They think that it’s one of the themes which can unite rich and poor alike. And since they need to expand their base out of the marginalised areas of the city, they need all the help they can get.

The PT hopes they will be able to make inroads with the theme, not least because public security and policing is a state responsibility. Would it be rude to suggest that they might bring up issue of vigilantism which contributed to the murder of several homeless people in the city centre a couple of months ago?

More foreign attention
The proverbial backslapping continues in the Folha, with yet more coverage of what the foreign media are saying about the Brazilian elections. It really is a case of, ‘Wow, look how much they care!’

Not really. I sometimes sadly suspect that for the foreign media the novelty of free and fair elections in Brazil is still perceived as a novelty. Where are the generals in dark glasses, with neatly clipped moustaches? Oh wait, sorry, that’s Chile. But I hope you get my point.

According to the Financial Times – that mouthpiece of capitalism – the PT ‘won more votes than any other party in the local elections last weekend… the president and his orthodox political economy, has certainty helped the economy recover this year which helped the result.’

I hope no petista socialists were reading that…

The French Le Monde notes that the PT was ‘the big winner of the municipal elections in Brazil’ before commenting that Sao Paulo was a ‘trampoline for all the candidates’ who had presidential aspirations. Marta’s future alliances could be difficult, not least because Luiza Erundina (PSB) was considering an anti-Marta stance and Maluf as a left-wing ally would be disconcerting to members of the party.

Hold your enemies close, but your friends even closer...
Perhaps it the case that the closer you are ideologically, the more likely you are to detest another party. That’s the only way I can understand the contribution to greenhouse gases which the tucanos and petistas have made with their comments about each other.

But yesterday was revealing. After weeks of spitting bile, the PT president, Jose Genoino, said that ‘There are lots of cities where the PSDB wants the PT’s support. And others where we want theirs.’ In other words, get away from Sao Paulo and the apparent polarisation between PT and PSDB may not be as great as the media would have you believe.

Then again, was it ever thus? Back in the late 1980s a prominent PSDB senator, Fernando Henrique Cardoso and the PT leader, Lula, met to discuss a possible alliance between their respective parties. It never happened and the two ended up competing against each other in the 1994 and 1998 elections.

Party politics may be relatively fluid in Brazil, but don’t assume the new divisions will stay the way they are.

Serra's coalition-building
Although Marta was first out of the starting blocks when it came to building support for the second round, Serra has now done his bit. He’s reaching out to the PDT’s Paulinho, who must be flattered to be wooed by both camps. Serra’s pitch is to make reference to the national scene, where the PSDB, PFL and the PDT now all sit on the opposition benches in Congress.

But it wasn’t always that way. You can thank the late Lionel Brizola for taking the PDT out of the governing coalition earlier this year – whether it was for ideological reasons or political advancement, who knows.

Serra has also been trying to get one up on the PT by meeting with the electoral authorities to discuss making the second round a ‘clean campaign’. He’s asking the PT to sign up to his suggestions, which would include no disallowed publicity material in the city.

What's Plan B?
Lula met with the party’s already elected mayors at the presidential palace yesterday. He asked them to help form election teams to help Marta. One, the mayor of Recife, Joao Paulo, said that he came out of the meeting like ‘a soldier’.

Which I think gives you an idea how the PT are seeing the Sao Paulo contest.

As if that wasn’t enough, tomorrow the PT’s national executive will meet to discuss the campaign strategy for the next month. As well as asking the already elected mayors to help those in the second round, the leadership may also ask government ministers to organise campaign teams for particular second round contests. In Sao Paulo special attention will be made to campaign in the streets.

Could that last recommendation suggest that Duda Mendonca’s influence over the Marta campaign is waning?

Same as before
Yesterday the newly elected city council met for an hour and failed to pass a single measure. The last time anything happened was nearly two months ago, on 10 August. But then the councillors were too busy distributing various honours and freedoms of the city.

Of the 55 councillors, 33 turned up. Presumably the other 22 were still celebrating the manner of their victories?

2004-10-05T10:20:00.000+01:00

Not sure how many...
Twenty-one states had completed their vote counts by 1.30 yesterday afternoon, but that didn’t include Sao Paulo. But it could have been worse. In Rio no-one seemed to know whether there were 42 councillors or 50. Before ruling one way or the other the state’s electoral court decided it would announce the full 50 and reduce their number if necessary.

Council seat breakdown
Even if the mayoral contest is as yet undecided, it looks like the PT can be sure of a majority whoever gets elected. Of the 55 councillors who will take their seats, 20 were petistas and their allies, the PTB (PT with 14 and the PTB with six). The PSDB won 13 seats while the Luiza Erundina (PSB) PSB/PMDB alliance gained five (four of which were peemedebistas) and Paulo Maluf’s PP won four. Assuming the PMDB join the PT as they did during the previous administration, this will mean a coalition of 25; support from the PDT (two seats) of the Greens (three) would give them a majority.

We're watching you...
Foreign coverage of the election isn’t limited to English language sources it seems. A roundup appeared in yesterday’s Folha and Estadao, which included analysis of Argentine, Spanish, American and British press. The Clarin in Buenos Aires reported that ‘Lula’s party has consolidated its national base’, but reckons that the second round in Sao Paulo could be ‘rather difficult’ especially after Marta Suplicy’s (PT) failure get level with Jose Serra (PSDB).

Another Argentine paper, La Nacion, was reported as saying that the results showed ‘clear support for Lula in the polls.’ It also reckons that despite Serra’s first round win, ‘the situation could be changed in the second round’.

El Pais in Spain noted that Serra’s win was a surprise and that the second round could have ‘dramatic undertones’. It also stated that the results showed general success for Lula’s government, which could be achieved to the country’s economic performance while the Los Angeles Times said that the PT victories around the country ensured that the party maintained its support in urban areas and would help Lula in his re-election bid in 2006.

Bizarrely British domestic politics managed to sneak into the Folha’s coverage, in particular an opinion poll which showed that the Conservatives were struggling to convince the public on the eve of their conference. According to The Times Labour would poll 35% of the votes against 28% for the Tories and 25% for the Liberal Democrats. Despite the heading ‘Blair’s Reaction’, none was offered.

What odds a sub-editor was caught napping?

More talking heads
Besides the media, the media are also reporting other forms of foreign analysis. In the Estadao, Neil Dougall, the head of research at the Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein bank, said that he thought it would be difficult for the PT to win the second round. However, he noted that the party had increased its share of the vote across Brazil from 14% in 2000 to 17.2% this time. He also believed that ‘If the PT loses Sao Paulo, there will be a fight within the party’.

Meanwhile, over at the Folha, an interview takes place with Wendy Hunter of the Kellogg Institute at Notre Dame University. Hunter, who has written on the PT, said that the result was ‘more than symbolic’ because it gives Lula ‘a little space to make reforms and govern… He’ll have more freedom to govern.’

However, Hunter still thinks the PT needs to win Sao Paulo. ‘The government has invested a lot in its image when it comes to financial matters. Losing Sao Paulo would not put it in a good position for the gubernatorial or presidential races in 2006.’

Asked to comment on the ‘polarisation’ between the PT and PSDB, Hunter said she found the situation ironic: ‘They should be friends in terms of political ideology. They are already close.' On the matter of electoral alliances, this will ‘compromise the agenda, because the PT is going to have to move to the centre even more to win more than 50% of the vote in the cities where there is a second round.’ But it would be an exaggeration to think that this means the PT is no longer a left-wing party.

Of the PFL, which once played king-maker and was hugely influential during the 1990s, Hunter said that ‘the PT isn’t in power nationally and this influences greatly the prospect of winning smaller cities. Basically the PFL doesn’t have the machinery it had in the past.’

At the risk of bringing in British politics (again), rather like the Conservatives…

Horse trading
Already the wheeling and dealing has begun. The PMDB president, Michel Temer, met with PT senator, Aloizio Mercadante, and all but gave his party’s support to Marta for the second round. But at a price: the PT will have to support their man in Ribeiro Preto, a city in the interior which was once run by the PT’s finance minister in the national government, Antonio Palocci.

Next on the agenda will be meetings between the PMDB and the PSB, to get the latter on board as well.

But while the PMDB and the PSB would be early scalps for the PT, petistas are now being coy about their relationship with Maluf and the PP. The party president, Jose Genoino, refused to respond to a direct question over whether the PT was interested in Maluf’s support.

You can understand why. How would left-wing supporters feel if the opposition was to mount a campaign saying ‘Vote Marta, get Maluf’? Yup, you guessed it: sick to the stomach.

Instead Genoino is trying not to spell it out too clearly: ‘We want the votes of all those who voted for Maluf… We want the votes of all those who voted for Maluf, Erundina, Paulinho, Francisco Rossi and Dr Havanir.’

Maluf then did his bit to keep the crowd guessing. Really, all this reticence won’t do. It’s got more in common with blushing brides than hard-nosed, battle-scarred politicians. Maluf cancelled a press conference yesterday afternoon, saying he was going to meet with his party leadership to discuss the matter of second round support.

Does he really have to do that? It’s already an open secret that some kind of agreement was reached between Maluf and the PT earlier in the campaign.

But at least there’s none of this silliness when it comes to the micro-party, the PHS (‘nanico’ to use the Portuguese parlance). Their candidate in the first round, Francisco Rossi, has thrown his support behind Marta. OK, so he only garnered 78,000 votes, or 1.26% of the vote. But it’s the thought that counts, I suppose.

Making excuses
There’s a bit of an inquest going into the opinion polls and why they didn’t get the first round result right. Ibope’s director, Marcia Cavallari, was explaining to the Estadao why they had got the result wrong. Having predicted a tie of 40% between Marta and Serra, the excuse given for the right-point difference was that they ‘overestimated Marta and underestimated Serra’.

The Estadao’s guru-in-chief, Fatima Pacheco Jordao, was wheeled out for an explanation. According to her, ‘Anticipating the second round, many voters transferred their votes from minor candidates to the big ones.’ This was done, she suspects, to avoid wasting votes and thereby giving Serra the larger margin of victory than anticipated.

That logic would mean many of Maluf’s would-be voters decided to vote for Serra when they got to the polls. But like Ibope, Fatima doesn’t think that votes will naturally ‘migrate’ from one defeated candidate to another. In other words Serra can’t expect to just pick up Maluf voters. The second round, then, will be a completely different election, which will make it essential that ‘Serra now presents a consistent programme…’

Youth and (in)experience?
It definitely makes me feel old when I read this. Following the elections, Brazil’s youngest councillor is just 17 years old (the voting age in Brazil is 16 and councillors need to be at least 18). A tucano, Orlando Dantas de Souza, was elected in the north-eastern state of Pernambuco, with 167 votes. However, he will be turning 18 in December.

The country’s youngest mayor isn’t much older. In another northeast state, Ceara, Arline Veras dos Santos, was elected in Barroquinha. She’s just 20.

Puts my own election campaign in London as the party’s youngest candidate (I’m 28) earlier this year into some perspective.

What is it about both being in the Northeast? Maybe it's something in the water...

2004-10-04T13:10:00.000+01:00

Second round it is then
So there we have it. The first round is now over and followed expectations, with Marta Suplicy (PT) and Jose Serra (PSDB) heading for the second round. But contrary to the polls last web, Marta and Serra didn’t draw; Serra pulled ahead and won with 44% against Marta’s 36%.

There’s also a big loss for those of us enjoyed his Comical Paulo moments; Paulo Maluf (PP) polled only 12%, failing to deliver the approximately 25% he had been promising us for weeks past. Luiza Erundina (PSB) came fourth with 4%, which goes to show that even if the pollsters got the front runners wrong, at least they were accurate with the no-hopers.

The eight-point gap surprised the PSDB: ‘I was being optimistic when I thought we would be two or three points head. Even a draw would have been good, but I’m surprised,’ said Serra’s party colleague and state governor, Geraldo Alckmin.

The PT put a brave face on the Sao Paulo poll, saying they would take the second round. But first things first. Starting this morning you can expect lots of activity as the two second round candidates start negotiating openly with the losing candidates and their parties to get their support for the election at the end of the month. In particular look out for who Erundina throws herself behind, with her party and her financial backers, the PMDB. Helpfully for Marta, the PMDB is already part of her governing coalition in City Hall may, so petistas will be hoping that getting them on board will be a formality.

There may well be recriminations in the PT campaign later. The Estadao notes that Serra’s victory was achieved despite a highly active campaign by Marta which made intensive use of TV ads and walkabouts. Her campaign manager, Duda Mendonca will probably be active this morning, thinking of ways to rectify this.

Want to be a councillor? Make sure you're already one
Besides the two mayoral candidates’ results, there was also the councillors to consider as well: of the 10 council candidates who received the most votes, eight were going for re-election. If nothing else, it shows incumbency helps in Brazil’s open-list proportional election system. Of the two ‘first-timers’, one was a tucano and the other a petista.

Jose Anibal, the former PSDB president who was a Senate candidate in 2002 was the most voted, with nearly 163,000 votes. Arselino Tatto, a pestista, received the second highest – and less than half that of Anibal – with 70,000. Of the top ten candidates, four were tucanos, two were petistas and another two from the PMDB, with one each from the PTB and the PL.

Beyond Sao Paulo
But even if the PSDB surged ahead in Sao Paulo, the PT can take heart from results around the rest of the country. Initial analysis shows that Brazil has become politically ‘polarised’ between the PT and the PSDB, with the only exception to this theme being the PMDB received, albeit in the smaller cities and regionally.

President Lula’s party won Belo Horizonte, Recife, Aracaju, Macapa, Palmas and Rio Branco – all state capitals. And besides Sao Paulo, they are in the second round for another eight capital cities: Vitoria, Curitiba, Porto Alegre, Fortaleza, Cuiba, Goiania, Belem and Porto Velho.

The PSDB didn’t take any state capitals in the first round but will compete in the second round of seven of the most important cities in Brazil: Sao Paulo, Curitiba, Vitoria, Florianópolis, Natal, Teresnia and Cuiba. However, in total they elected 798 mayors, compared to their right-of-centre allies, the PFL, who elected 742 and the right-wing PP with 525.

By early Monday morning with 93% of the 5562 results declared, the PMDB had won 982 cities, putting them in the lead and showing they are still a force, despite their apparent decline since the 1980s.

The PT meanwhile, were in sixth place in terms of number of mayors elected, with 362 on the first round; but it was better than their previous best showing, of 187 at the last set of local elections in 2000.

And put another way, the PT won more votes than the PSDB or the PMDB. Sunday’s poll delivered 14.3m votes to Lula’s party, almost a million more than the 13.4m won by the PDB. The PMDB may have won the most mayors, but in total votes cast they received 12.2m with the PFL in fourth place with 9.6m.

Looks like there’s still all to play for over the next few weeks. Which means yet more work for Andrew and I to bring this to your computer screens...

2004-10-04T13:03:00.000+01:00

In English, please
I'm going on a short break (nowhere far, unfortunately), leaving Guy to capture every nuance of the remaining two horse race (and the horse-trading) for you.

In terms of English language reaction to the result, the Guardian oblige with an AP syndicated piece while Reuters report limited gains for the PT. However, headline of the campaign so far (not in Sao Paulo, alas) has to be 'Lesbian Thwarted In Election Bid To Follow Partner', concerning the fate of the aspiring mayoral candidate in Viseu.

2004-10-03T17:34:00.000+01:00

Is there an election on or something?
The obligatory English-language press round up for today. According to the BBC:

"Voters will choose councillors and mayors and in more than 5,000 towns and cities.

But correspondents say the focus will be on the vote for mayor of the country's industrial and financial centre, Sao Paulo."

See, we told you. There's little mention of Sao Paulo and no mention or Marta or Jose on Bloomberg though, just Lula. The same with Reuters, who mention that "Lula himself was among the early voters on Sunday, turning up to cast his ballot in the industrial city of Sao Bernardo do Campo, where he launched his political career as a union leader in a car factory in the 1980s." Voice of America helpfully mention that:

"One of the most closely watched races in the election is taking place in Brazil's largest city and financial center, Sao Paulo. Opinion polls show former presidential challenger Jose Serra is slightly ahead of incumbent Mayor Marta Suplicy."

Important for Lula, Sao Paulo key battleground -- that's all you need to know, apparently.

2004-10-02T17:41:00.000+01:00

Protesting against the clock
The dispute between Jose Serra (PSDB) and Paulo Maluf (PP) continues to rumble on. After the electoral authorities struck off some of his ad time on the TV and radio for a defamatory program, Maluf has made three appeals on Thursday, claming he can back it up. They were made urgently, since electoral programs finished on the Thursday to allow a few days before the election tomorrow.

Don't blame me
Marta Suplicy’s (PT) defence for President’s Lula’s eulogy of her record as mayor while opening a new development was presented on Thursday. She claimed that she couldn’t be responsible for what Lula said and had no idea what he was going to say – not least because she wasn’t present at the event.

The president of the Supreme Electoral Court and minister, Sepulveda Pertence, then weighed into the discussion on Friday. He said that as far as he was concerned, Lula was entitled to share his feelings at election time since democracy entitled him to do so. However, he acknowledged the conditions in which this was done needed to be considered and said he would wait and see what was decided.

Did you miss the debate?
Most people will probably have been focused on the presidential debate in Miami this week. But on Thursday evening there was the small matter of a debate between the five leading candidates for mayor in Sao Paulo as well.

There was some controversy when the TV company carrying the debate, TV Globo, tried to exclude the sixth-placed PTC candidate, Ciro Moura. TV Globo only wanted the leading five candidates in the race (and that’s being generous when you consider third-placed Maluf has around 15% and the PSB’s Luiza Erundina is bobbing around on 5%).

Moura protested against TV Globo’s decision, which was subsequently upheld by the authorities. The PT was worried, since it was expected that Moura would attack Marta during the debate.

There weren’t any scuffles between rival candidates’ supporters during the debate. As the candidates debated inside, 50 people connected to a petista council candidate arrived, along with 40 associated with the PDT mayoral candidate, Paulinho. Serra’s team also managed to make an appearance.

A helping hand
How helpful it must be to have your chum in the governor’s palace send next year’s budget to the state legislature hours before your debate, as Serra did? Maybe there’s a lesson for the Republicans here.

Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB) set out his budget proposals on Thursday, which is estimated at around R$69.7bn in total. Investments can expect to receive R$6.8bn, including for state firms. Social programs will receive R$30.9bn, of which R$6.9bn will be targeted at health, R$8bn for public security and R$13.9bn for education.

Kicking lumps out of each other
Maluf kicked the debate off by attacking Serra and his party colleagues for the rise in unemployment across the country. He claimed that ‘There were three million unemployed in 1995 when the PSDB and the tucanos took over the national government. Today there are 10 million unemployed.’ He then criticised Serra’s colleague, Alckmin, for not having done enough for the city’s roads (good to see Maluf return to type, promising roads, roads, roads) and for missing the point with a pre- and post-natal health policy just when traditional forms of maternity are coming to an end.

Ciro Moura then got a few sideswipes in against Marta, saying that ‘Civil construction is a huge generator of jobs and she’s completely abandoned it in the city. City Hall isn’t doing its part, working with the state government.’

Marta and Serra took lumps out of each other directly, Marta calling Serra ignorant and him calling her arrogant. But since insults are beyond the scope of this blog, let me just leave it by saying that each had a go at the record of their party colleagues in government, including whether former president, Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PSDB), or Lula had made the situation for Sao Paulo worse or not. This included whether unemployment had grown and lack of planning.

After the debate Serra said that he thought Marta was surprised that there were going to be budget cuts next year and a transfer of money to the hotly disputed rubbish collection: ‘She gave the impression that she didn’t know that there would be cuts of R$200m… It’s strange this increase in funds for rubbish.’

Serra also acknowledged what I thought everyone knew: that there was an agreement of some kind between Marta and Maluf which showed itself during the debate: ‘I don’t want to judge. But you all saw what happened.’

A judgement
Marta must be hoping that the former Sao Paulo state governor Orestes Quercia (PMDB) doesn’t read too much into her performance during the debate. Quercia said after the event that ‘Serra was better than Marta in terms of dominating the occasion. Marta appeared nervous and Serra much firmer.’

Since the PMDB – the financial backers to Erundina’s candidacy – are being courted by both petistas and tucanos – you have to wonder whether Quercia’s comments are an early sign of which side they’ll land up in the second round.

If they have discussed it though, they are not saying. Erundina is keeping her cards close to her chest when she was reported as saying that ‘I have not information on the national [party’s] decision on this matter [of supporting the PT]. The first round hasn’t happened yet.’

It is interesting - honest
Talk about stating the obvious. The polls have shown it for weeks, but finally we get the hallowed words from Ibope’s president, Carlos Augusto Montenegro: there’s going to be a second round. You don’t say!

But at least he’s got more to add: 'On 1 October I don’t know [who is going to win], because the second round changes really quickly… Principally because we’re seeing a huge proportion of Marta’s and Serra’s supporters who aren’t loyal [and could change their vote].’

Well, maybe. But at least Montenegro is trying to keep the election alive.

For once, no complaints
While I said that Thursday was the last day of TV electoral programs that was only the case for the council candidates. The mayoral ads closed on Wednesday night. Unsurprising then that some of the mayoral candidates decided to gatecrash the councillors’ occasion to seek out a few more votes. Serra, Marta, Maluf and Erundina all muscled their way onto these programmes to make their points – with all being complicit, I doubt any one of them will be making complaints about the other.

Scrambling for votes
On Friday Marta and Serra went off in search of votes, both heading to the east of the city where much of the focus of the campaign has been – and where Maluf has most of his support. Whoever can win over Maluf’s supporters will surely have a good chance of winning the second round.

But without TV or radio ads allowed in the last few days of campaigning, walkabouts and cars with loudspeakers were the order of the day.

Marta’s team were keen to take her around the parts of the city where she has broadest support; along with the east, she’ll also be in the south of the city, shoring up the petista vote.

Of course the campaigning couldn’t take place without some confrontation. Once again tucanos faced the brunt of PT supporters, who threw flags and leaflets at Serra’s team. One of them hit Alckmin’s car, who was accompanying Serra on his walkabout, or drive about in this case.

And if that’s not safe, the PSDB have a deal to use a helicopter in exceptional circumstances. But at a cost of R$2400 per hour flown, it’s not particularly cheap.

Conflating issues
As 120 million Brazilians make their way to the polls on Sunday, many of them will be hoping for solutions to problems which aren’t necessarily the responsibility of mayors and councillors. According to a BBC Brasil report being carried in the Folha on Friday, two of the main campaign themes throughout the country have been public security and unemployment.

According to the lawyer, Jose Macruz, who works in the Study and Research Centre for Municipal Administration in the Sao Paulo state government, ‘The main responsibility for tackling unemployment lies with the federal government. The city can do projects and reduce taxes, which can temporarily reduce unemployment but it’s not the main solution. The voter has to be careful. The candidate says that he’s going to solve unemployment, but how? It’s the question I ask. If he proposes a project, how much will it cost. Where’s the money coming from?’

The role of national and state level government responsibilities in the local election campaign worries the economist and geographer at the Brazilian Institute of Municipal Administration (IBAM), Francois Bremaeker: ‘These are electoral proposals. They are trying to reflect in their speeches exactly what the voter wants to hear. The voter doesn’t have the slightest notion of municipal competencies.’

Fact or fiction?
The government’s communications minister has begun spinning early. Eunicio Oliveira claims that the government and its supporters won’t suffer adversely on Sunday and will continue to maintain their position. Both the PT and the PMDB will do well, he says, while the main opposition parties, the PFL and the PSDB, won’t increase the number of cities they control.

Oh really? The columnist Fernando Rodrigues has conducted an analysis of 34 cities in Sao Paulo state (where polls have been conducted and which make up 60% of the state’s population) and reports that whereas the PT currently runs 13 of them, they are only challenging in nine. In contrast the PSDB governs 10 and is competitive in 14. Worse still for the PT is the fall in competitive mayoral candidates from 22 to 21 compared to the opposition’s rise from 12 mayors today to a potential 25.

[A big thanks to Leo for the tip]

Thank you, thank you...
Brazilians love it when the rest of the world pays attention to them. How else to explain an incredibly self-referential piece in the Estadao on Friday in which the newspaper quotes extensively from articles carried in both The Economist and the Financial Times about the elections?

How is it that as soon as a British or American newspaper writes on Brazilian affairs the country’s press becomes all starry-eyed? On such occasions I find myself comparing Brazil’s journalist corps to a famous fading actress who appreciates being ‘discovered’ once again.

Statistics, statistics…
It’s always good to see Brazilian efficiency at work. But then I’m not entirely sure that the electoral authorities are at fault. On Friday it was reported that with two days to go before the polls opened, there were still 859 investigations which were still outstanding. The deadline for decisions is today, when the authorities will extend their work schedule to 6pm to try and catch up.

In recent months the total number of investigations which have worked their way to the senior level number 3,413; 2,019 of which relate to candidates’ registration and 594 dealing with campaign material.

An estimated 1.5m households saw Thursday’s debate – a huge rise compared to the last debate when just under 350,000 households tuned in.

The police announced they would have more than 87,500 policemen and 6,200 police cars working on Sunday throughout the state. They will be concentrated in the voting districts to make sure there’s no disturbance.

More figures, this time from the rubbish collection people. Sunday will see 2,960 workers with 224 rubbish carts sweeping the streets of Sao Paulo clean. And it’s nice to hear that much of the collected campaign material will be recycled.

2004-10-01T13:29:00.000+01:00

Elections: not just for Hartlepudlians
While I'm sure Guy's daily round-up of the Brazilian media is imminent, here's a quick peek at the steadily increasing English language coverage.

The Washington Times take time out from the Bush-Kerry debate to mention the Suplicy-Serra debate taking place on Brazilian TV. The Kansas City Star concentrate on the Lula factor however. As does the Seattle Post.

2004-09-30T16:26:00.000+01:00

Neck-and-neck?
Bloomberg (in English) report on a Datafolha poll which shows the two main candidates level-pegging ahead of next week's first round elections.

2004-09-30T11:54:00.000+01:00

When the computer breaks down...
Sorry for the lack of coverage yesterday and today. This morning I had completed a full rundown of election news from Tuesday and Wednesday, only for the computer to crash and wipe six pages’ worth of election news including links. Believe me, no one can be more annoyed than I presently am.

So from memory, here’s a quick run down of what has happened over the last two days (minus the links - but you know the usual sources...)

The PSDB and PT are gearing up their polling day teams to keep a watchful eye over the stations and make sure no funny business happens. The PSDB has 6000 prepared, although the PT won’t say how many they will be deploying on the day.

Jose Serra (PSDB) has called the tactics used by Marta Suplicy (PT) and Paulo Maluf (PP) almost akin to the Nazis, claiming that if you tell a lie long enough it starts to be seen as the truth.

Another run-in between the PT and the PSDB took place when Serra went to visit shop keepers. His aides had to bloc 40 petista activists from disrupting the event, but the PT brought in four cars with loudspeakers to play Marta’s election jingles and discredit the tucano candidate. Serra’s campaign then produced a gaffe, by sending a car with loudspeakers to play their man’s jingles outside a maternity ward in the south of the city. Needless to say, the invitation to vote Serra wasn’t appreciated and the management asked them to turn it down.

A new poll on Wednesday by Datafolha showed that since the weekend Marta and Serra had dropped a point but were still tied on 34%. Maluf was stuck on 12% and Luiza Erundina (PSB) crept up from 4% to 5%. Maluf put on his Comical Paulo hat and was claiming (albeit before the poll) that he would be facing Marta in the second round.

Meanwhile the PT and PSDB are hovering like vultures over the carcases of the Maluf and Erundina campaigns. The PMDB freely admitted that they had received phone calls from both the front runners on Monday, despite there still being a few days before their candidate, Erundina, being certified as officially out of it. Maluf was also indirecrly admitting that approaches were taking place; the PSDB was looking for a rapprochement with Maluf, despite the attacks he’s instigated against their man.

Little surprise then that some new research by the political scientists Scott Mainwaring of Notre Dame University shows that Brazilian voters are among the least ideological. Out of a survey of 39 countries on four continents, Brazilians were 37th in the list when it came to identifying with politicians for ideological reasons. The problem is a vicious cycle according to Mainwaring: voters don’t trust party labels because they don’t mean much and politicians don’t help themselves by having clear ideological programmes or even sticking to their party’s proposals. The result is a hole which is filled by clientelistic relations between politicians and voters, with the electorate voting for a politician’s image rather than policies.

Another poll, by the National Transport Confederation (CNT) and Sensus showed that approval of Lula’s government had risen and his personal image remained at the same level – around 58% thinking positively. In the same poll the public indicated they were thinking about who to vote for based on their ability to administrate, with their policies in second place and personal image in third.

Maluf’s campaign started to implode. The PP’s city president decided to take the party’s council candidates’ ad spot out of the hands of Maluf’s publicity team and give it to another producer. Apparently she wasn’t giving enough attention to the council candidates, which forced the move. Maluf’s campaign coordinator wasn’t impressed and Maluf pointed out that people were looking for support after the second round – although if you believe him, it’s they who are looking to join him rather than the other way round.

2004-09-30T11:34:00.000+01:00

Viva el presidente?
As we might expect, English language coverage of the municipal polls is increasing as the first round draws nearer. Once again, MercoPress rise to the occasion with a piece on the significance of PT victories for President Lula.

2004-09-29T15:34:00.000+01:00

Murder, she wrote
The BBC World Service supplies some political context to the recent attacks on the homeless in Sao Paulo, thanks to this piece by Adhemar Altieri, the founder and editor-in-chief of InfoBrazil.

2004-09-29T10:16:00.000+01:00

This just in...
The MercoPress (who have an interesting domain name) file a story on the imminent Brazilian local elections (in English), claiming that Marta might come through in the second round.

2004-09-28T19:04:00.000+01:00

I've got a wig and gavel, can I have the job?
As the election draws nearer, the English language coverage increases. The conservative Washington Times carries a story on candidates who are falling foul of electoral authorities in some states:

Electoral courts in Rio de Janeiro and here in Parana state have disqualified candidates facing criminal charges.

"Nothing like this has ever been done before," said Marcos Faver, Rio's chief electoral judge. "I think other states will follow our lead in the future. My hope is that we create an electoral process where the candidates have some moral responsibility and aren't currently under investigation for drug trafficking or homicide."

Electoral courts? An interesting concept for export to Britain methinks. "M'lud, they made me do it!" etc.

The Times also report some good news for incumbent Marta Suplicy in terms of a possible feelgood factor.

2004-09-28T09:54:00.000+01:00

E-campaigning
Internet campaigning isn’t really hitting the virtual streets of Sao Paulo it seems. After nearly three months of campaigning Sao Paulo’s voters still don’t have a written list of promises from the main challenger, Jose Serra (PSDB).

According to the Folha Serra has only one idea listed on his website under his ‘Program for Government’: the Mae Paulistana scheme, which would provide pre- and post-natal care to women. And although Serra’s site invites voters to send their suggestions and comments and lists 23 themes, there are no details anywhere.

Even more embarrassing for Serra, his female health scheme is quite close to the one already being run by the city.

Serra’s response was to say that there was no difference in his plan for government between what was said and written: ‘Our plan is presented every day. It’s a concrete plan, on paper and it does already exist. You only have to look at it. Take my interviews in the media. What’s different between what was written and said by me, or recorded?’

Getting clearer
The electorate is becoming ever firmer in its voting decisions. Between mid-September and last Friday the proportion of voters who say they have made their mind up rose from 70% to 74%. But that still means there’s 25% out there which haven’t yet decided. Marta Suplicy (PT) seems to be benefiting from this late surge more than Serra: previously 76% of her supporters said they wouldn’t vote for anyone other than her; by the weekend this had risen to 80% compared to a rise of only two points for Serra, to 73%. Paulo Maluf (PP) voters are more loyal than Serra’s: 76% will stick with him, his shady background notwithstanding.

Of the undecided though, Serra has some reason to cheer. Thirty percent prefer him while 23% are inclined towards Marta. Also more voters are becoming aware of his party’s number on the ballot paper (as voting is electronic, voters need to know these numbers if they are to cast their vote correctly). Several weeks ago just over half of the electorate was aware of his number (45). This week that figure rose to 69%, which compares favourably against Marta’s 76% and Maluf’s 72% (which is actually a fall of three points). Even Luiza Erundina (PSB), who is languishing in fourth place, has picked up recognition; 55% of voters know her number compared to the last poll’s 43%.

Can't stop till you get enough
Sometimes they just won’t give up, will they? After the PT was slapped down the other day for making offensive statements about the former president Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PSDB), in particular his failure to provide resources to Sao Paulo during his administration, Marta’s lot have bounced right back. The electoral authorities had taken time away from Marta’s electoral advertising to allow Fernando Henrique a right of reply.

But the PT’s Sao Paulo senator, Aloizio Mercadante, is still making the same allegations: ‘I say it, reaffirm it and prove it: projects in Sao Paulo were delayed because President Fernando Henrique Cardoso failed to comply with a contract and… later the PSDB and PFL groups in the Senate obstructed loans.’

Given the PSDB’s enthusiasm for referring individuals to the authorities (President Lula is currently being investigated after campaigning for Marta at a public event) I wonder whether Mercadante might not be sailing to close to the wind.

But then Marta might not be helping herself either. Back on the TV yesterday she was again pointing out that only after Lula had been elected did Sao Paulo start to receive financial support from the federal government. In particular she cited an R$494m loan from the national development bank (BNDES) to make changes in transport.

Given that election campaigning on the TV and radio ends this week, Marta’s team probably thinks they can say what they like. Any decision by the authorities against them wouldn’t have much impact if there’s no time to be taken away from them.

Nevertheless, the PT did try and appeal against the decision to award time to Fernando Henrique (they lost 42 minutes for their comments). But the electoral authorities turned their request down.

A change of image
The PT was playing happy families yesterday. Marta hit the campaign trail in Guaianazes in the east of the city where she was joined by her son, the musician Supla, and former husband, the senator Eduardo Suplicy.

As unlikely as that might seem, at least it makes a change from the scenes presented by the party in the last week – most notably stand-offs against their rival, Serra.

Not another poll...
After Datafolha at the weekend, it’s Ibope’s turn this week. On Monday the latest poll by the company shows that Serra has a lead of two points over Marta, 37% to 35%. But this is technically a draw, since the margin of error is 2.8%. Serra would still win a second round run off, by 51% to 39%. Maluf fell a point to 11% and Erundina remains on 3%.

And still no sign of a Comical Paulo moment, whereby he’ll reassure us that the polls are all wrong and he’s on his way to the second round. But we can live in hope…

It's in the post
The electoral authorities – acting on behalf of the public prosecutor – still hasn’t officially informed Lula of the action being taken against him for violating the electoral code after his outburst in favour of Marta at a public inauguration event at the weekend before last.

Apparently it will be sent today, after which Lula and Marta will be able to make a defence within two days. But what’s the likelihood this won’t be resolved until after the weekend? And will it make much difference? After all, in the second round the campaign will be thrown into sharper focus and with most voters thinking Lula’s making a decent fist of the job, it could all backfire on Serra and the PSDB for being vindictive.

There are no off-limit areas for us...
Perhaps to allow for that, Serra appears to have made the launch into the second round campaign by broadening his base and going in search of the marginalised. Most of these voters are more likely to be Maluf or PT supporters. But Edson Aparecido, the PSDB’s municipal president, believes that this is no longer the case, with traditional politics and areas dominated by one person or party no longer in evidence. He pointed to the north of the city, where malufismo once dominated and where Serra visited yesterday, as an example of the change in Sao Paulo’s political make-up.

When asked to comment, Serra said that ‘There’s no Maluf vote; voters will decide on the basis of proposals being put forward.’

Perhaps not the best thing to say when it’s pointed out that your website doesn’t carry any proposals for anyone to read or comment on.

2004-09-27T17:50:00.000+01:00

Text-book attack
The PP is going to keep attacking Serra right until the last. According to a PP member and lawyer, Sergio Redo, ‘As Sun Tzu said… when you’re at war with various enemies, you have to choose one. The one chosen was Jose Serra (PSDB) because it’s much easier to beat Marta in the second round when you can compare previous administrations.’

So we’ve had Franz Fanon and The Art of War evoked in last few days. What odds Clausewitz being next?

Paulo Maluf’s (PP) latest line of attack involves six people criticising Serra – but none of them are Sao Paulo voters. All come from the Northeast city of Recife and claim that Serra lied over the construction of hospitals and a Metro station and failing to pay an outstanding debt to one of the people, a physically disabled man in a wheelchair.

Maluf already began to distance himself, by pointing out that ‘Who’s doing my campaign are the marketing people.’

There’s nothing quite like washing your hands and blaming others when the campaigning gets dirty…

After the TV ad was broadcast the Folha interviewed Maluf’s marketing manager, Marcelo Teixeira. When the Folha pointed out that a bus in the TV ad had clearly been filmed in Recife, the phone call ended – only for the newspaper to receive a call back two hours later in which he said that ‘It’s only a detail. If I filmed in Rio, Recife, New York or in Sao Paulo it wouldn’t be important… Who should be investigated is [Serra].’

Two weeks ago the Folha reported a non-aggression pact between Marta Suplicy (PT) and Maluf. Teixeira worked with Marta until the end of last year, but denied having any further contact with the current mayor’s campaign team.

I don’t know about you, but the smell of seafood is overwhelming...

But despite Maluf’s ‘It wasn’t me guv’ defence, the authorities were having none of it. At the weekend they decided the ad was offensive and awarded Serra 35 minutes of Maluf’s airtime on TV and radio to make his case.

No repeat performance
After the spat between President Lula and the PSDB last week, perhaps it’s just as well the PT is sending out his chief of staff on the campaign trail. Jose Dirceu will be making a trip from the south to Bahia, during which he stopped in Sao Paulo on Saturday.

Out of control?
After the scenes which saw the PT and the PSDB clash on the streets last week, Marta claimed on Friday that she had no way of controlling the militants in her party who got involved. ‘Sometimes there’s provocation on both sides. You can’t control this militancy but the party and I are campaigning in peace,’ she said.

When journalists asked her is Serra was a victim in all this, Marta said that the population would have to decide for themselves. And she was annoyed when asked if there was anywhere the tucanos couldn’t go in the city.

But it’s probably not a good idea that Marta absolves herself from taking responsibility for the militants. It only takes a few to give the party image a bad name – and by association, herself.

Serra won’t let the matter drop though. He claims that Italo Cardoso, a PT state deputy, was the main instigator of the fight. When asked to comment the PT refused to do so.

Cheeky
Sometimes you have to admire the PT's chutzpah though. A day after Lula apologised for his over-enthusiastic endorsement of Marta at the opening of a road extension last week, what should pop up in Friday’s TV ad for the PT?

That’s right: footage of the event.

Still, the PT doesn't always get its own way. Lula was then informed that he had 48 hours to defend his behaviour from last week. On Thursday night the electoral authorities recommended that both he and Marta be each fined up to R$106,400. The PSDB who kicked the whole process off then reported that they would be sending a request to the Planalto Palace (the president’s office) for Lula to pay the costs of his ill-fated trip to Sao Paulo into the public purse.

The tucanos cited the example of a former PT minister, Benedita da Silva, who paid back the cost of her journey to Buenos Aires after she went off on a freebie.

Not all publicity is good publicity...
Workers from the electoral authorities had to take down illegal publicity material which has been posted on traffic lights along the city’s main drag, Avenida Paulista. Meanwhile the PT councillor, Jose Americo Dias, was fined R$5,320 by the authorities for having his name painted on the walls of the metropolitan train company in the east of the city.

Kosher kandidates
Must get those Jewish votes. Must get those Jewish votes. That must be the thoughts going through the three main candidates’ minds. Serra and Marta were both out touting for support on Yom Kippur, going to the same places, but at different times.

Maluf meanwhile was back to his old Comical Paulo antics at a synagogue, holding forth on why his current and distant third place wasn’t really third place at all: ‘Datafolha is a decent organisation but it’s made by men. And men make mistakes. At the last election Datafolha was out by 13 points on Election Day. We’re going to get to the second round and we’re going to win this election.’

Still, if it keeps him happy…

Re-opening old wounds
Things then got a little awkward for Maluf with a report that the Sao Paulo state authorities were re-opening an investigation in whether during his time as mayor (1993-96). It is claimed that he and his finance secretary, Celso Pitta, broke city law by diverting designated money away from education to other areas, including culture, health, sanitation, administration and security outside schools.

After a report like that, voters might be reminded of all the other alleged shady dealings Maluf has been involved in. And that certainly won’t help deliver him a second place finish.

A ticking off
The authorities followed this up by telling the Marta that she would have to give space in their electoral publicity to the former president, Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PSDB). They argued that the PT’s claim that Fernando Henrique had ‘secured money for projects’ ‘to help Serra’s campaign’ exceeded the acceptable limits of political criticism and entered into personal abuse. For each offensive comment the authorities stated that a one-minute right of reply be allowed. With 32 such cases that will be 16 minutes on the TV and 16 on the radio.

New poll
Maluf’s not going to like this. With a week to go to the election, on Saturday Datafolha reported that Marta and Serra were tied with 35% of the vote. Marta rose two points while Serra fell by the same amount; Maluf rose a point to 12% and Luiza Erundina (PSB) remained on 4%.

There was also further good news for Marta. In the second round it was estimated that she would gain 41% of the vote against Serra’s 51%. While that would still mean her losing, last week she had 38% and Sera 54%. At the end of June – the official start of the campaign – Serra was on 62% against Marta’s 29%.

And no sign of a Maluf response. Sadly.

I'm gonna make him an offer he can't refuse...
The PT is accused of trying to buy the support of a smaller party, the PSDC. Although the national party president, Jose Genoino, denies it, the weekly magazine, Veja, carries the story according to the Folha. In particular it’s claimed that the PT tried to buy influence in Osasco, an area in greater Sao Paulo. It’s alleged that the PSDC president, Jose Maria Eymael and the party’s Sao Paulo mayoral candidate, Joao Manuel Baptista, would have been at a meeting where the PT would have made three payments last June. This follows Veja’s reporting of the PT trying to buy the PTB to the tune of R$10m.

As dodgy as it sounds, it doesn’t sound particularly competent to me. Especially if it’s all recorded on a tape…

The PT’s response, led by Joao Paulo Cunha (president of the lower house in Congress), said that the allegations were ‘ridiculous and absurd’.

Free for another day
At-large criminals will be breathing a sigh of relief as they get a few more days’ freedom from today. No voter can be arrested except if they are caught in the act of committing a crime until two days after the election. This now puts voters on the same level as candidates, who have enjoyed the same freedom since last week.

Another freedom that’s worth keeping an eye out for will be this Thursday; after 30 September there will be no more free election publicity on the TV or radio. So it will be back the novelas and the late evening programmes for those uninterested in the race…

Unfortunately street campaigning won’t end. So anyone venturing out better be prepared or they might find themselves mobbed by the candidates – when the PT and the PSDB aren’t beating each other up, that is.

A queer response
Gay Pride isn’t impressed. None of the main candidates have offered any specific proposals for gays in this election. Despite making up around 1.2m voters, the group claims that the candidates have been more interested in the concerns of evangelicals, taxi drivers and couriers.

While Serra talks of ‘initiatives’ and ‘support’ and Marta doesn’t say much at present, the current administration has probably done the most for gays. In November 2002 pensions were extended to gay partners who work for the city and funding was provided for the Gay Pride March. But despite Marta’s work, activists are dissatisfied: the pension concession wasn’t done by a change in the law which means it could reversed at any moment. They also say that a LGB Help Centre hasn’t been created yet; City Hall says it plans to do so but hasn’t yet set a date.

Nevertheless, gay groups will recommend that Carlos Giannasi (PT) be returned, along with Fernando Quaresma (PPS) and Nadia Campeao (PC do B). Giannasi was the only councillor to present proposals for homosexuals, including the change in the law regarding pensions and an anti-discrimination number.

2004-09-26T23:45:00.000+01:00

Can't Stand Me Now, says Marta
InfoBrazil reports (in English) on the wider implications of the now personalised São Paulo race, not least the removal of Jose Serra from the running for the 2006 presidential elections if he wins in the second ballot of the mayoral election next month:

"Chances are that the race for the mayor’s chair in São Paulo will go to a second round involving only the top two finishers, which Serra will win. Should this happen, we will start having an idea of how the 2006 presidential race is going to look.

Serra could not possibly stand as the PSDB candidate, and the party will have to choose elsewhere. At the moment it has three strong candidates – São Paulo state Governor Geraldo Alckmin, Minas Gerais state Governor Aecio Neves, and Senator Tasso Jereissati, a former governor of Cereá state.

Former president Fernando Henrique Cardoso is still in the wings and, although it is unlikely that he will be considered, that option cannot be ruled out entirely. This is a very strong team indeed. The three front-runners are youngish, and have all stepped forward as responsible, modern, pragmatic and hard headed realists."

Not sure what the author is driving at here though, with this rather simplistic view of 20th century literature:

"At one point, [Lula] quoted Frantz Fannon [sic.], the darling of the anti-colonial movement in the 1960s. What a country like Brazil can learn from this kind of outdated anti-imperialism is not known, and one can only hope that it was the speechwriter, and not Lula himself, who raised this forgotten voice from the past."

2004-09-24T10:02:00.000+01:00

Better late than never
President Lula has apologised for his exuberance when talking about his party colleague and current Sao Paulo mayor, Marta Suplicy (PT), at last weekend’s opening of a road project in the east of the city. ‘I improvised,’ he said. ‘I made a mistake which I shouldn’t have done. The president has to set an example. I apologise to those who feel upset by it.’

Readers will recall Lula’s comments so incensed the main rivals in the Sao Paulo contest that they referred him to the public prosecutor.

Lula also confirmed that he was making available the text of the speech after his press office initially tried to remove the sections relating to his comments regarding Marta.

Lula said he wouldn’t speak anymore about the upcoming elections at future public openings. But he couldn't resist a dig at the opposition: ‘But I must say that I don’t know why they [the PSDB] are so angry. The economy is much better than we predicted which has shut their mouths and they have no other case to make.’

The PSDB meanwhile tried to be statesman-like. The Sao Paulo state governor, Geraldo Alckmin, who seems to have become the campaign manager of his party colleague, Jose Serra, said ‘It’s a wise act from him because there are limits which shouldn’t be passed… This isn’t a question of apology… It’s about democracy. The only thing that the law bans is campaigning at a public event.’

New scandal in the pipeline?
Ribeiro Preto is an important city in Sao Paulo state, not least because its former PT mayor, Antonio Palocci, is now the finance minister. However, things are not looking good down there: an investigation has begun which alleges there has been manipulation in the bidding process for rubbish collection in at least 10 cities in the state, including Sao Paulo itself. The prosecutors claim that not only are company executives being investigated but former PT advisers as well. Of the cities, five are run by the PT, three by the PSDB and one by the PMDB.

The suspicions are based on taped telephone calls over the last five months. The allegations would include deals between the companies involved in the process and corruption by civil servants.

The PT won’t need this, not least with just over a week until the elections. Following a scandal in February where a former aide was videotaped soliciting illegal campaign funds during the presidential campaign two years ago, Lula’s popularity fell – only to recover six months on.

Two-horse race
The Folha has done an analysis of the state of the two main parties in the Sao Paulo contest. Polls in 67 of the 72 most importance across the country (i.e. biggest in economic and population terms) show that the PSDB has the best chances (in 22 places) with the PT in second place (with chances to win in 20). This polarisation between the two parties suggests the emergence of the PSDB and the PT as the leading political forces in urban areas after the election.

When considering the web of alliances which both parties have, the PT looks like taking control in 51 places, compared to the PSDB and its allies in 39. Of the former influential parties, the neoliberal PFL (which looks like taking power in three) and the catch-all PMDB, appear almost irrelevant.

Of the 5562 mayoral candidates across the country, more than half are seeking re-election next week. And of all the total candidates, 90% are male. Despite proportional representation through the open-list voting system, it still seems that politics is a man’s world in Brazil.

No-hope campaign?
A lawyers’ lobby group promised to present a case to the state’s public prosecutor against Marta. They allege that she has manipulated the city budget to avoid paying food payment credits to eligible civil servants. The lawyers claim she played with the budget in 2001 and 2004 to do so. If found guilty she could have her political rights suspended or be banned from holding public office.

Does make you wonder way the case has been brought now. But isn’t this the same group that sought to impeach her in City Hall the other week (always a no-hoper in election period since there would never be enough councillors to form a quorum)?

We're may be bland... but we're angry
Most people think of bank clerks as quiet, almost timid people; a little boring, even. But not those in the banking trade union who went on strike on Wednesday last week and then confronted police in the city centre yesterday.

In the middle of the protest the union’s leader, Dirceu Travesso, was arrested but freed soon after. ‘I was identified as a political candidate and I warned that my arrest could have a negative repercussion for the police,’ he said afterwards. Travesso is a candidate for the left-wing PSTU in the elections next week.

There’s a lesson here, but I’m not quite sure what it is…

The bank workers are on strike in 24 cities, demanding a 25% adjustment to their salary. On Monday their employers, the National Federation of Banks, made an offer of 8.5% and an extra $R30 for those earning over R$1,500.

Seems you can’t please some people…

Not safe on the streets
Not to be outdone campaign workers from the PT and PSDB teams fought each other during a Serra walkabout in the south of the city. Around 200 petista supporters heckled him and jostling took place, causing the police to be called and statements made. I won’t trouble you with the details, other than to say Serra was called a ‘vampire’ and threats made to run him out of town – apparently all part of a so-called ‘Vampire Head Operation’ which has seen confrontations between the PT and Serra’s team on four separate occasions since the end of June. Serra reacted by saying the behaviour was ‘fascistic’.

As if that wasn’t bad enough, Serra also had to put up with satirists chasing him around town from two TV programmes. On one instance he was asked if he thought he looked similar to Homer Simpson or Uncle Chico from the Adams Family. To be fair to Serra, he showed initial good humour, replying that he should ‘Ask the children.’

The second humorist asked Serra who was balder: him or Paulo Maluf (PP). When the candidate replied Maluf, his interlocutor came back at him, suggesting that ‘Serra was bald from learning about the city’s problems.’ The two comedians attempted to interview Marta the day before, but she escaped twice while they caught Maluf at an event with the lawyers’ association.

Still Serra is taking no risks and confirmed after yesterday’s incident with the PT that he would be asking for protection from the authorities so he could continue his street campaigning. Having had only 50 of his supporters compared to the 250 petistas which his team alleges were present, he certainly needs all the help he can get.

But what he can do to prevent himself being waylaid by more so-called ‘comedians’, God knows.

Another red flag spotted?
Is the PT starting to believe they may not win this election? The alleged intimidation on the streets of Sao Paulo between themselves and Serra may be one sign. But Marta also seems to be having some thoughts about it too. Yesterday she said to reporters that she believed President Lula would be re-elected in 2006 even if she didn’t win the local contest in Sao Paulo this year: ‘The president is a very charismatic person and is doing a good job in government. He’s going to be re-elected independently of whatever happens elsewhere in Brazil.’

It could well be a new level of realism from the PT campaign; but I wonder how much this it also has to do with her angling for a job in the administration in Brasilia should it all go wrong?

Banned
Maluf’s attack dog antics against Serra have brought about a reaction. The electoral authorities have stopped Maluf from airing a TV ad criticising the PSDB candidate over a house purchase he made 20 years ado and his failure to pay off campaign debts from his failed presidential bid two years ago.

2004-09-23T10:24:00.000+01:00

A safer way of lending support?
Having given his support to Marta Suplicy (PT) last weekend, President Lula is now trying to help Vicentinho, his old friend and former president of the PT-affiliated trade union CUT, get elected as mayor of Sao Bernardo do Campo, in the Sao Paulo metropolitan region.

Rather than attend a public function, he’s sent a letter of support, which should at least reduce the risk of him being chastised by the opposition.

Female power
The PT has woken up to the power of female charm. Recognising the importance of womanly persuasion, Marta’s running mate, Rui Falcao, said in a speech to shopkeepers and business people in the centre of the city that women ‘have the capacity to influence others’.

All too true. When the missus nags me to do something useful, invariably I give up protesting. It’s probably the same approach that the PT is counting on.

Christmas once again
Jose Serra (PSDB) is still grumbling about the PT even after having reported Lula for misconduct to the electoral authorities this week. Following the recent public projects, including roads in the east of the city and the car pool scheme, Serra said that ‘The city is acting like Father Christmas at the lat minute and from the financial perspective this could wreck Sao Paulo.’

‘Wrecking’ was a popular term on display by the candidates yesterday. Paulo Maluf (PP) also used the word to describe what the Sao Paulo state governor, Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB), was doing to support his colleague get elected. He accused him of ‘using and abusing’ the state’s resources: ‘I saw an announcement by the Insurance Company of Sao Paulo. Why did they make an announcement? I saw a notice from the State Transport Agency, which I never knew existed.’

Serra defended his chum in the governor’s palace when he went on Radio Bandeirantes to be interviewed: ‘The governor isn’t a candidate in this election and we also don’t want City Hall to stop. Services need to continue.’

Lula’s arrival – was it good for you?
The Grupo Estado guru, Fatima Pacheco Jordao is back in the media yesterday, talking and analysing Lula’s involvement in the campaign at the weekend. She thought the timing good, but it could be more effective in the run-up to the second round since both Marta and Serra are likely to end up ‘practically tied’ after the first round. Also she ‘thinks that Marta has reached the most votes she’s going to get [on her own]. Lula’s presence could be more effective in the second round.’

If Lula’s involvement is to be effective, it must be associated with the improvements that Marta has done for the city or projects that the national government can provide Sao Paulo with, if she is elected again.

However, it is Alckmin who appears to have shown the greater ability to deliver the vote: ‘Not because of greater popularity in Sao Paulo, but because he also links Serra to concrete projects, like the construction and expansion of the Metro…’

2004-09-22T11:18:00.000+01:00

But it's art!
Away from the squabble taking place between the PT and PSDB over President Lula’s involvement in the election campaign, electoral judges have fined two council candidates; Marcio Youssef (PMDB) and Claudio do Prado Nogueira (PDT) for making use of illegal election material. They were found guilty of having walls along a street in east Sao Paulo painted for their campaigns. The PMDB candidate will have to pay R$15,961.50 (£3,105) and the pedetista R$5320.50 (£1,035). Youssef’s fine was higher because he’s been found guilty of improper campaigning before.

Lula fallout
Lula has recorded a TV and radio ad for the Marta Suplicy (PT) campaign in which he lists her achievements from a minimum salary to school uniforms, the flat-rate public transport ticket and education centres.

According to a campaign organizer, Lula’s involvement is designed to neutralise the explicit support that Sao Paulo state governor Geraldo Alckmin is giving his party colleague, Jose Serra (PSDB).

Meanwhile on goes the election argy-bargy. Yesterday the PSDB’s complaint against Lula for opening a road project and endorsing Marta on Saturday was lodged with the public prosecutor.

Perhaps sensing the rancor generated from the event, the PT look like retiring Lula from the fray. The PT party president, Jose Genoino, said yesterday that Lula wouldn’t be doing any more campaigning after his messages of support to Marta in Sao Paulo and the PT team in Recife, Pernambuco. However, the campaigns around the country are going to step up the national dimension of the elections, with its candidates linking themselves to the government in Brasilia.

Numbers... and more numbers
The electoral authorities were churning out statistics yesterday: nearly 120m voters will be choosing between 15,781 mayoral candidates and 346,373 council candidates for 51,802 council seats in 5562 municipalities on Sunday week. To get all the votes in 406,000 voting machines will be deployed.

In the last set of local elections, in 2000, the PMDB gained the most, with 12.6m votes, followed by the PFL with 10.7m, the PSDB with 9.5m, the PPB (now the PP) with 7.7m, the PTB with 5.4m and the PT with 2.7m.

The average cost of a vote in 2004 will be R$6.77 (£1.32), with the most expensive being in Roraima state, where it costs R$34.76 (£6.76) while being lowest in Sao Paulo, at R$3.76 (73p).

And they say democracy is expensive…

Up to the job?
Still the figures come out from last Friday’s Datafolha poll. Yesterday’s news coverage showed that the findings indicate that Serra is the best prepared candidate for the job of mayor. His ratings have risen from 30% (in the previous poll) to 37% on this count compared to Marta, who rose from 13% to 18%.

Serra has improved his standing in two areas which were dominated by the current mayor: transport and education. And the song-and-dance routine by the PT over health has helped Marta improve her rating in this field.

However, Marta will be worried, since the voters’ verdict on Serra’s readiness to deal with education rose eight points to 34% this month against Marta’s 38% (a rise of only one point). In transport Serra rose seven points to 23%, while Marta remains on 48% (the same as last month). In health Marta rose five points to 18% thinking she was the best prepared to deal with the problems, against 62% who thought Serra could do the job (a rise of one point).

Looks like the PT may be running out of time to convince voters that Marta deserves a second mandate.

Still, there’s a crumb of comfort for Marta. She’s seen as the one who is most likely to deliver among the main candidates; 33% of voters think this of her, compared to 30% who think the same of Paulo Maluf (PP) and 25% for Serra (a rise of five points).

Of the most liked candidates, despite his charisma by-pass, Serra is most liked by the public; by 34% (a three point rise) while Marta remains stuck on 20%. Serra is considered authoritarian by 12% of the electorate (a five point rise) and Marta, by 18% (a three point increase). And Marta is more disliked than Serra, with 17% against Serra’s 10%.

Buying the vote
It’s clearly the week for goodies and presents. After the samba schools’ largesse and the taxi drivers now being allowed to use the car pool lane on the city’s highways, yesterday it was the turn of the Catholic Church. During a meeting with religious representatives, Marta said that an extra R$9m (£1.75m) would be made available for the Church’s social activities, in a grant paid in three installments per year.

The city’s social assistance secretary, Aldaiza Sposati, said that the announcement wasn’t connected to the elections.

But of course. And remind me: is the Pope Catholic?

Of course the other side is at it too. Alckmin spent Tuesday announcing a package of tax reductions and fiscal incentives before announcing that Sao Paulo was leading the way to the rest of the country in not raising any taxes.

Afterwards during a press conference, he denied the reference to a lack of taxes during his – and the previous administration under Mario Covas – as being a slight against Marta’s taxes for rubbish collection and street lighting. And just in case anyone got the wrong idea, he said that ‘This [the package] isn’t for Sao Paulo city. it’s for Sao Paulo state… It has nothing, nothing to do with the election.’

Funny though it should come out on the same day as Marta’s bounty to the Church and a week before the first round.

My cynical radar is up once again…

Street fighting
Twice on Tuesday Serra was confronted by petistas during a campaign walkabout in the east of the city. While visiting a bakery Serra had to put up with vehicles blaring out Marta’s campaign jingles as they drove round and round the nearby streets. Forty PSDB campaigners tried to put up a fight, shouting out the name of their candidate.

Two hours later at a train station the same occurrence was repeated, with the PT minibuses ‘blockading’ the station and forcing Serra to stop his car 20m away from the arranged meeting point.

One of the PT organisers with a loudspeaker declined to be interviewed but local shopkeepers said that the petistas hadn’t been campaigning there daily. The city’s PT president, Italo Cardoso, claimed that ‘We have 31 election committees and it’s difficult to avoid contact’ with other candidates.

The PSDB didn’t buy it, with Serra then stating what should have been obvious to most, claiming it was ‘plausible’ that the ‘meeting’ had been planned by the PT beforehand.

With insight like that, I’m really looking forward to the profound statements he’ll offer as mayor…

You're barred - or maybe not
The president of Sao Paulo electoral court has asked the state’s public security secretary to confirm whether it’s necessary to impose the ‘Dry Law’ ahead of the election.

The so-called ‘Dry Law’ bans the sale, distribution and consumption of alcohol on Election Day. The court’s president thinks it’s unnecessary this year as long as the police (who are under the public security secretary’s control) are ready to deal with any public disorder. The electoral code means it’s a crime if disorder threatens the electoral process. This can include impeding or blocking someone from voting.

With that recommendation, expect bar regulars to be raising a glass to the president next Sunday before they go and make their vote.

The mummy returns
Maluf has made a reappearance. Having gone silent for the last few days, he’s been careful in his words over the Lula-road ‘scandal’. He avoided criticising Lula and believes ‘he didn’t break the law’, but then went on to attack Alckmin by saying that he was ‘going to break the state to win this election [for Serra].’

The populist was also on form again, blaming the media for scuppering his chances: ‘The press decided upon a false polarization [between Serra and Marta] three weeks ago, when the campaign wasn’t yet polarized. What they wanted was to take Maluf’s vote and give it to Serra.’

Occupy! Resist! Don't vote?
Finally a bit of militancy of another kind. Last week around 1000 students from both public and private universities occupied buildings in Sao Paulo. They were protesting against the cost of higher education and university reforms currently being proposed by the Government.

I wonder how many of these students will not be voting for Marta and sitting on her hands in the second round. No doubt an area which the local PT might want to consider while their marketing team continues to press for the local contest to be treated as a referendum on Lula’s administration.

2004-09-21T10:34:00.000+01:00

Limpet-like support
More figures for our statistically-minded readers. The latest Datafolha poll shows that more than 70% of Jose Serra (PSDB) and Marta Suplicy (PT) supporters are clear that they will vote for these two candidates (71% of Serra’s voters and 76% of Marta’s). And even though Paulo Maluf’s (PP) chances of making the second round are little more than remote, he can count on 75% of his supporters sticking with him at the ballot box during the first round.

Unfortunately for Marta, despite the targeting of Serra by both Maluf and Luiza Erundina (PSB), there’s still little to show for it all; the majority of supporters of these two candidates will still vote for Serra in the second round (74% of Maluf’s voters and 59% of Erundina’s).

The two candidates whose numbers on the ballot paper are most imprinted in people’s minds are Maluf and Marta (11 and 13 respectively), with over 70% of voters knowing them. But only 53% of voters know Serra’s number, 45. This is important since voting in Brazil is done electronically. If a voter doesn’t know the candidate’s number then they can’t vote for him or her.

The grumblings in the PSDB camp about President Lula’s endorsement of Marta at a road opening on Saturday blew open before taking a farcical turn amid some petty comments.

Cock-up?
Yesterday had started with Serra complaining that the current administration appears focused on making a show only in its last year of office; and that included Lula’s entry into the Sao Paulo contest for the first time on Saturday – just over two weeks before polling.

Then Walter Feldman, one of Serra’s campaign managers, announced that they were taking the case to the electoral court to demand the exclusion of Marta from the mayoral contest and Lula to be fined for ‘impropriety’: ‘The President can support who he likes, but that isn’t common, from the point of view of the law, during a public event.’ Even the Brazilian Lawyers Association (OAB) weighed in with its own concerns. Its federal adviser and specialist in electoral law, Delosmar Domingos de Mendonca Junior, believed it was an ‘abuse of power’ and cited which law Lula transgressed (Laws 64/1990 and 9504/1997 if you’re really interested).

But not long after though the PSDB changed their minds. Instead of referring Marta and Lula to the electoral authorities, they drew back and referred the matter to the public prosecutors.

Not to be outdone, the PT then hit back by publishing a memo which suggested that the PSDB wasn’t as innocent as it was making itself out to be. They noted that the state governor, Geraldo Alckmin, had solicited support for his party colleague Serra while in the Metro, which is ‘public equipment’.

All very unedifying you would think, not least because of the cack-handed nature of it all. Please, children, let’s raise the standard of your game.

Christmas comes but once a year - except in election year
As if to reinforce Serra’s criticism of the administration’s last-gasp-just-in-time approach to governing, yesterday Marta announced that she would be making available funds for the samba schools for next year’s Carnival. The money will be dispersed in three grants, each around R$6m (£1.17m) and the first being paid on 1 November. It follows a statement by Marta on Saturday that taxi drivers will be able to use the pool lane on the city’s highways in future.

A messy problem
Whoever’s in charge of Sao Paulo after October (most likely Serra on current polls), will have to find R$1.4bn (£273m) to sweep away the rubbish piling up. Since April the bidding process for the city’s rubbish services was challenged, it has been stuck in the municipal finance committee and it may not be worked out by the end of the year. Even if the committee gets the process moving, it will be difficult to get the councilors to deal with it before the second round of voting, on 31 October.

The current contract and arrangements come into effect in October and can’t be altered for at least six months. After this, if no company has yet won the bid, the city will have to enter into an emergency arrangement or start the bidding process again from scratch. Whatever happens, the new mayor will have a challenge on their hands; there’s nothing which makes voters more irate than rubbish on their doorstep.

It’s cheesy I know, but politics can be a dirty business…

The view from Brasilia
Kennedy Alencar has been writing in the Folha once more about how important the PT performance in these municipal elections is to its position vis-à-vis its allies and opponents in Congress – and the result in Sao Paulo above all.

And it’s not just a political commentator’s observation; members of the government and the leaderships of the PT, PMDB, PFL and PSDB are all saying so. If the PSDB won it would control two of the biggest budgets in the country after the federal government, with Sao Paulo state and city.

Last Monday Lula lunched with opposition senators as part of an ongoing series of talks between the government and opposition over a possible future realignment of political parties. This would be especially useful in the Senate, where the government has an unstable majority.

A small group of 10 in the right-wing PFL and led by its king-maker, Antonio Carlos Magalhaes (ACM, could possibly be persuaded from its usual PSDB allies to form a support group to the government – if Marta wins what is being seen in Brasilia as a referendum on Lula’s government. With Maluf – an old enemy of the PT – making favourable noises about Lula, ACM is saying that he could take 30 congressmen with him into the PP.

Not only would the right expect posts in government as a deal for a more secure governing majority, according to Alencar, the move would also enable the opposition dissidents (an odd idea to attach to someone like ACM) more free TV and radio airtime at the next presidential election in 2006.

It’s enough to make your head spin. And for those who saw the PT through rose-tinted spectacles as socialism’s next big thing, it’s enough to send them back to the demon drink.

Em Inglês

2004-09-20T14:14:00.000+01:00

One again, thanks to internet press agencies, you can catch up with matters Sao Paulo in English elsewhere.

"Serra, the candidate of the Social Democracy Party, had the support of 54 percent of likely voters in a Sept. 17 survey in a head-to-head contest with incumbent Marta Suplicy, who had 38 percent, Datafolha said. Serra had 56 percent support in a Sept. 10 poll against 37 percent for Suplicy, the candidate for Lula's Workers' Party."

2004-09-20T11:23:00.000+01:00

Happy families?
Politicians love to talk about the importance of the family and the need for unity. Well how are they going to explain the arguments within families which their campaigning is causing? In the Silva family in Sao Paulo (a surname in Brazil almost as common as Smith is in Britain or America), Valdemarina Rodrigues da Silva, 61, will be voting for Jose Serra (PSDB). Her grandson, Eduardo, will vote for Marta Suplicy (PT), as will her granddaughter, Monica, although without the same enthusiasm as her brother.

The family can’t watch the TV debates together; Wagner, the father, speaks ill of Marta. ‘[Paulo] Maluf [PP] is the foreign bank account candidate. It’s like “rape but not killing”,’ (estrupa mas nao mata) says Eduardo provocatively, referring to Maluf’s comments during the 1989 presidential campaign.

‘“He rapes, but not Marta,”’ (estrupa mas nao Marta) responds his father rather indelicately, one feels. Wager is a Maluf supporter because of all the public works he’s done. Besides, innocent until proven guilty is his response to the allegations surrounding the candidate.

Valdemarina seems exasperated with Eduardo. ‘Listen to this boy speak,’ she says, with her arms crossed. She’s been a firm Serra supporter ever since he introduced more available medicines.

Eduardo is a journalism student and has joined the PT. Although he praises Marta’s policies, he admits feeling deceived, especially by the party’s alliances which he thinks has turned it towards the centre-right rather than the left.

In the western neighbourhood of Lapa the pensioner Ademir Gomes de Almeida is a Serra supporter. His wife, Rosa Sirlei Forte de Almeida, is a ‘purple malufista’; their niece, Adriana Pedro de Almeida has voted for the PT over the last six years since she was 18.

While her uncle and aunt go on about the importance of partnership between city and state and the work done by the PSDB and Maluf over the years, Adriana becomes exultant when her aunt says she will vote for Serra in the second round: ‘As long as it’s not a vote for the PT, right?’ to which her uncle responds good naturedly that ‘This proves that the PT isn’t a party. It’s a cheer leading team.’

'Marta’s done a good job. She inherited a bad situation and her projects will be achieved for the long term,’ Adriana says, adding that she identifies with the PT’s philosophy. Her uncle replies again: ‘It’s about fighting.’ Adriana reacts, saying that ‘All parties have their fanatics. In the PT this is even more evident.’

‘The PT has done nothing for society,' retorts her uncle. ‘So what about the education centres?’ asks Adriana. At which point Rosa makes the revelation of the evening. She said that she voted for Serra in the first round of the 2002 presidential election, but that she voted for Lula in the second – much to the surprise of her husband. 'I thought that Lula would fight for the poor,’ she said, justifying herself.

‘But he did. He’s the president. He’s fighting for everyone,’ says Adriana, defending him before her aunt responds, saying that ‘As soon as he was elected he bought an airplane.’

‘You wanted his plane to crash?’ asks Adriana. And on the debate continues…

Looks like it won’t just be me who’s looking forward to this all being over.

Right minister, wrong visit
Two days after Lula’s visit to Sao Paulo to lend support to Marta’s campaign, who should be next up but the Education Minister, Tarso Genro, to give a hand. On Monday he’s visiting the building works of the Public Health Department at one of the city’s hospitals with Marta in the east of the city.

The project is costing R$6m (£1.2m) and is being jointly funded by the city and national government. Surely then Marta would have preferred to have the Health Minister with her for that? At this rate we can expect the campaign team to take the Transport Minister to the Stock Exchange, the Finance Minister to an art gallery and the Agriculture Minister to a factory.

Please let’s get it together. Education Minister should mean visits to Marta’s shiny educational centres which her team keeps plugging in her ads. She’s well-thought of for those. Not at hospitals, which people associate with Serra.

In a sulk
Could it be a case of sour grapes? After Lula’s opening of the new road works in the east of the city on Saturday, Serra was grumbling that the state government had also contributed to the project.

Since Marta could not be there under election law, having the president say a few words on your behalf may well have done wonders for Marta’s campaign.

A bit of Lady Luck?
Marta must be hoping that Lula’s recent good fortune rubs off on her in the election a week on Sunday. An Ibope poll which is covered in English by the Centre for Public Opinion and Democracy notes that Lula is winning over the public once again. Between June and Ibope’s latest poll in September Lula’s performance as president has risen nine points to 38% of those who say his work is ‘good’ or ‘very good’; those who said his performance was ‘bad’ or ‘very bad’ dropped from 26% to 19% over the same period.

2004-09-19T14:58:00.000+01:00

Opening those cheque books
Last week Marta Suplicy (PT) managed to rake in R$3m (£580,000) from a lunch with Sao Paulo businessmen. With 600 attending the buffet at R$5000 (£972) a head, that’s not bad work for a supposedly socialist party.

Given that the campaign budget is estimated at around R$15m (£2.9m), the businessmen managed to stump up nearly a fifth of what Marta’s team eventually plan to spend.

Four years ago when the same event was held, 120 came to the lunch at R$1000 a head.

For the so-called Workers Party, such a mark-up shows impressive capitalist acumen.

Not for sale
Someone who seems threatened by the PT’s new buying power is the PDT’s candidate for mayor, Paulinho. In an interview with the Folha he assures readers that he ‘isn’t for sale.’

Well maybe the PT just hasn’t offered enough yet.

The president of Union Force, a group which represents 612 trades unions, Paulinho is yet another to claim that he’s not using the election to raise his profile for the presidential contest in two years’ time.

He seems to think that he’s run a good campaign despite only standing at 3% in the polls because at the start his rejection level was at 33% compared to an awareness rating of 45%.: ‘Today my level of recognition is at 80% and my rejection has fallen to 9%. I’m almost unique in this, because normally when people learn more about you, your rejection level rises.’

It’s this difference which means he can stay independent. But in response to a Folha question as to whether he’ll support Marta in a second round run-off against Jose Serra (PSDB), he says that ‘We have as many difficulties with the PT as we do with the PSDB. People are angry with both. I was co-ordinator for the re-election of former president Fernando Henrique Cardoso [PSDB, in 1998] but I became disillusioned. We supported Lula in the second round and he also failed to do what he promised. Given this, it’s easy to remain neutral.’

Call me cynical, but I’m looking forward to the manoeuvrings which will take place after the first round and the ‘clarifications’ which will be offered for changes of heart.

Off with not even a caution
You see, I have form with my cynicism. It’s hard not to when you see in the news that since yesterday none of the candidates who are standing for election can be arrested unless they are caught in the act of committing a crime.

Its rules like this – including the difficulty in prosecuting an elected representative and different prison treatment for those with a university education – which do occasionally make me wonder what the motivations are among some of the candidates.

Solve one problem - and win votes!
On Thursday night during dinner with the legal profession Marta suffered a fit of the Havaianas and made a promise: that she would stop the light tax, but only after she has put up 40,000 new street lights throughout the city. By doing so she’ll hopefully get rid of the unfortunate epithet, Martaxa, which she’s been labelled with by rivals (taxa being the Portuguese word for tax).

Looks like two birds with one stone and all that jazz, don’t you think?

Need a hand?
President Lula has stepped up his activity in the PT’s campaign across the country by coming to town. In front of a crowd of 5000 he said that ‘if people want to continue seeing social progress there’s no other way than to vote on 3 October for Marta to continue running the city.’

Do you think that counts as clear support? Perhaps he could have been a little firmer, maybe?

Oh, wait there is. Not only will he record a TV ad for Marta to be used in the second round, under election law candidates can’t attend the opening of public works. How helpful then to send in the mayor’s place the president to help inaugurate a road work extension in the east of the city.

Also in his speech of support to the absent Marta included Lula’s invitation for the public ‘see the difference’ between his administration and the last one: ‘Between 1995 and 2002… the Sao Paulo state capital received R$580m (£113m) in urban development. Our government, in only one and a half years, has already invested R$390m (£76m).'

Surely no crude electoral calculations went into that funding, surely?

Yup, I’ve got my cynical hat on once again.

Australian parakeets were also on display during the occasion, Lula pointing out that both his wife and the urban minister, Erminia Maricato, were dressed similarly.

Finally - and slightly unfortunately - for the president, the new road was flooded soon after by a strong downpour, causing chaos in the area and houses being flooded. Residents took to the street to protest, blocking the road. A local mechanic, Sandro Ferreira de Souza, said that ‘When this road didn’t exist, the water ran freely. I’ve lived here for more than 30 years and this has never happened before.’

Whoops. Just as well then that Marta wasn’t around, leaving her chum Lula to deal with the mess.

Analysis
The Folha columnist, Kennedy Alencar, sees Lula’s entry into the Sao Paulo election as evidence (if proof was still needed) of the national importance of the election. The reason for Lula’s involvement according to Alancar is down to that fact that ‘even if the PT does well in other state capitals, a defeat in Sao Paulo will impact negatively on people’s judgement of his [Lula’s] government. It was in 2000, when the PT won the key city in the country, that it consolidated its shift to the centre, splitting Fernando Henrique Cardoso’s government and electing Lula two years later… Leaving the tucanos ‘alive’ in the Sao Paulo state capital would send the message that the PT isn’t as strong as it was in 2000 and 2002. This would affect, for example, the ability of the government to deal with its allies and the internal tensions within the party.’

Polls, polls, polls
Two weeks before the first round of voting, a new Datafolha poll on Saturday shows that there’s been no change: Serra still leads, with 37% over Marta’s 33%, indicating that voters’ minds are beginning to harden.

With Luiza Erundina (PSB) still on 4% only Paulo Maluf (PP) has seen a change: from 12% to 11%. I wonder how much longer he can continue to protest that Datafolha’s methodology is all wrong.

Serra would beat Marta in the second round by 54% to 38%. At this rate Marta might want to start enquiring about jobs going in any of the departments up in Brasilia.

More analysis of the poll then follows in the Folha, with two main points arising: one, malufismo (usually associated as right-wing populism) won’t be represented by Maluf or an associate of his in the second round; and two, the PSDB will be in the second round for the first time ever.

Which begs the rather unattractive question (to those of a left-of-centre persuasion): which of Marta and Serra fancy being the political heir of Maluf?

Marta’s rejection level remains at 30%, meaning that a third of paulistanos will not vote for her in this election. Serra’s rejection level is also stable, at 11%. Maluf’s remains the highest, at 52%. It must all make for depressing reading for Marta and her team: how can they persuade the electorate to give her the benefit of the doubt with two weeks to go?

More questions
Serra was in the Grupo Estado chair to be grilled by its reporters on Saturday. In his opening remarks he said that he planned to run his administration according to four Ps: priority, partnership, planning and parsimony. But given his criticism of some of Marta’s spending, parsimony may well be difficult to achieve. He said he would continue much of the projects already begun under Marta and said that stopping them would amount to ‘electoral terrorism’.

Electoral terrorism... Huh? Which sets me thinking. What does an electoral terrorist look like? Are they all masked, carrying pens instead of guns and hijacking poll boxes on their way to the count and threatening to burn the contents if their demand - the right to voter apathy - isn't met?

The things these candidates come up with...

So things like the single flat-rate public transport ticket would remain. But what’s needed is integration between the different transport systems to make it work properly. ‘Technologically and operationally, it’s viable,’ he said, suggesting the creation of a ‘metropolitan transport authority’, bringing together the cities in the Greater Sao Paulo area and the state government.

He also dismissed the idea that he would nominate officials to various positions in the city’s offices at the neighbourhood level. With 300,000 to 400,000 posts to fill, he said he wouldn’t change people because of their politics saying that the only criteria would be their competence and ability to manage effectively.

Not only was his comment a swipe at the PT, it’s also designed to highlight his technocratic sensibilities – as a politician who gets the job done.

But isn’t that true of all politicians?

As yet another example of this, Serra said he would alter the rubbish collection tax, with a view to eventually ending it. He also said that Marta hadn’t done enough on housing, questioning whether she had really had 30,000 houses built since 2000: ‘There are not even 10,000. Here in Sao Paulo, with 10 million, that’s an insignificant number.’ He thinks that partnership between the state government and the city could deal with the lack of housing – something which isn’t happening at the moment. However, given that one of the problems is a lack of money available for construction, how he’s going to overcome that will be interesting.

On education Serra said that his priority was dealing with the lack of crèche and pre-school places, but that he wouldn’t build more CEUs (the centres which Marta has built). He said that besides Marta not having the money in the budget for them, she and her administration never mention that there are 200,000 children not in classes because of a lack of places. He also reiterated comments made elsewhere that he would renegotiate the city’s debt with the national government.

Off my stage!
Last week Marta said that she wouldn’t have Maluf by her side in the second round. She’s now expanded that to include the PFL and the PSDB, but ‘I want all the vote of these parties’ supporters.’

Given Marta will probably face the PSDB-PFL candidate in the second round, it would be rather hard for them to take to the same stage as her, wouldn’t it?

But maybe there’s something I’m missing in all of this? Perhaps it’s a coded message? Even if it is, Maluf must be feeling very lonely out there in the cold. All that praise of Marta and still she shuts him out. What’s he got to do?

Well, I don't want you either
But while Marta is busy excluding people from hanging around her, she’s been struck off the invitation list of someone else. Joao Pedro Stedile, the national co-ordinator of the MST (landless peasant movement), has said that while he would support Lula, he can’t guarantee his movement’s support of other petistas: ‘In Sao Paulo we don’t have any camps and in any case the regional offices are free to decide who they most identify with.’

Dependency culture no more?

2004-09-18T01:04:00.000+01:00

"Programs that don't even exist are celebrated and even win international prizes," Sao Paulo municipal election candidate Jose Serra told reporters. "Zero Hunger (a program to fight malnutrition) does not exist."

Shocking stuff. But wait, there's more:

"Zero Hunger quickly won national awareness with the backing of football star Ronaldo and supermodel Giselle."

2004-09-17T13:26:00.000+01:00

Number crunching
A Folha analysis of the Datafolha opinion poll from last week shows that Jose Serra (PSDB) and Marta Suplicy (PT) are neck and neck in the east, where there is the largest concentration of votes: 35% to 34% respectively. This will worry the PT: the east has tended to be their stronghold in the past. In the south, the second largest concentration, Marta is ahead by 39% to 33%; Serra leads in the centre, west and north.

When the east area is broken down by wealth, Serra leads in the richest areas by a clear margin, 43% to 26%. In the last month his share rose by 18%. Even in the poorest areas the figures are inverted, Marta’s lead is smaller: by 41% to Serra’s 37%. And in the richest parts of the south Serra’s lead is 41% to 26%, compared to Marta’s lead of 44% to 30% in the poorest sections.

It looks as if while Serra does better in the richer areas, he’s not as far behind in the poorest parts of the city as the PT would like. Expect jitters from the petistas over the next few days.

Another analysis, this time in the Estadao shows that with just over two weeks until the first round of voting, the polls show that in the other two points of the powerful ‘Bermuda Triangle’, Rio and Belo Horizonte should be done and dusted then, Sao Paulo will certainly go into a second round.

According to the report, Sao Paulo, Belo Horizonte and Rio are the three biggest contests, being the three key cities in the country. The results will have implications for the national political stage. Sao Paulo, they say, is particularly important, as it has turned into a symbol for both the PT and Lula on the one hand and the opposition PSDB, on the other. ‘Of the two parties, whoever loses the election in Sao Paulo this year will face internal disputes ahead of the presidential election in 2006 while whoever wins will be much strengthened.’

The director of Ibope has analysed his company’s recent polls and notes a slide in Serra’s support since June, from 41% to 36% to 31% to 29%. By contrast Marta’s stock has risen, from 16% to 23% to 30% to 34%. But recently Serra has stabilized, but he doesn’t look likely to increase his share. However, Serra can take heart, since he would draw away most of the vote from Paulo Maluf PP), in third place. And with Maluf and Luiza Erundina (PSB) being squeezed out, it’s hard to see where any more support can come for either of the two front runners.

AWOL
Candidates are so busy campaigning that they can’t be bothered to attend City Hall – that’s the finding which the Folha is portraying. With 52 of the 55 candidates all seeking re-election, since the holidays in July City Hall could have met 20 times since. However, it’s only had a quorum (currently 19) on seven occasions; and on only one of those did they vote. During that occasion they dealt with the prevention of municipal workers from holding union positions and the awarding of municipal honours to musicians, a film decorator and… Duda Mendonca!

Duda is the Svengali behind Marta’s campaign. I wonder what he got it for… Services to the city (if only one section of the city).

Each councilor earns R$7155 (£1382) per month, not counting what they get for their office. The president of City Hall, the petista Arselino Tatto said that ‘Every year that we have an election this happens across Brazil. Even in Congress the same happens… The councilors prefer to campaign.’

Tatto says that he disapproves of their behaviour, but that he ‘can’t do anything’: ‘Unfortunately the president doesn’t have the power to make the councillors come here.’ The only solution he thinks would be to stop their salaries.

Crime and punishment
The electoral courts have fined Marta’s campaign R$53,000 (£10,240) for putting out campaign publicity before the official period began. The PT put out publicity on state TV even though campaigning wasn’t officially allowed until 6 July and on TV and radio on 17 August.

As if that wasn’t bad enough the electoral courts also ruled on Thursday that the PT couldn’t blame former president Fernando Henrique Cardoso for helping Serra’s campaign by being slow in providing the necessary resources for Sao Paulo in their campaign – a strategy which they were intending to use to highlight the PSDB’s attempt to prejudice Marta’s administration.

Nothing like fighting dirty, is there? Although given the relative silence of Fernando Henrique from Serra’s campaign in recent weeks, it seems a little hard to realistically imagine him doing so.

The big tent
A day after saying she didn’t want Maluf in her campaign, Marta has suffered an attack of the Havaianas (flip flops to you and me). Yesterday she said to reporters: ‘Look, I want everyone in my campaign. I think it’s important to have party support. Maluf has a party that he represents. [Michel] Temer is president of an important party [PMDB] and Erundina has the PSB, which is also important. These parties and people are activists. I want them all in my campaign because they are close to the heart of their parties.’

As well as donning her new footwear, Marta pressed on with her siren call to Erundina’s supporters and those from the PMDB.

Somehow, I don’t think we’ll see any change in that last approach.

Analysing the week
Grupo Estado’s electoral analyst, Fatima Pacheco Jordao, is back on the Estadao again. She thinks the campaign is getting more direct and antagonistic: ‘In the last two days Marta’s campaign has strongly attacked Serra’s time as a minister… the new and more direct antagonism is almost expected in the second round.’

Can I just make an interjection here? From my perspective, dear God, no. I can’t stand the thought of almost another month reporting on he-said-she-said bitterness.

Anyway, back to Jordao. According to the analyst the PT’s approach shows that Serra is the favourite for the second round. If the situation between the two doesn’t change ‘probably we will have a more active and aggressive campaign from Marta and more defensive one from Serra.’

The narrow margin between the two candidates is a result of the voters giving up on the others and there could well be movements between the two camps’ sets of supporters: ‘Almost 30% of Serra’s vote say they could vote for Marta and vice versa.’ Jordao thinks it will be this group which will determine who wins. As for the possible party alliances in the second round, she doesn’t think they will be especially important since the voters are more interested in the candidates’ ideas and policies than the individuals standing.

On the national dimension of the Sao Paulo poll, Jordao says that ‘The PT intends to double the number of cities it has and have four or five of the key ones. The PT is emphasising its style of government – for example, Fortaleza and Porto Alegre it may well be re-elected – and lose in others. It’s possible that Marta doesn’t win in Sao Paulo, that the party loses Belem, and that nationally the PT doesn’t get what it wants.’

Finally she’s says that this is an election that is about ideology rather than parties and personalities.

Oh really? What does she think I have to write about all day?

Marta shares her thoughts
It was Marta’s turn to sit in the Grupo Estado chair yesterday. She started off by questioning Serra’s position on her education centres as a form of social policy, claiming that she was spending around 31-32% of her resources on education. Given the campaign team’s decision to downgrade the focus on her health proposals (because they remind voters of Serra’s achievements as Health Minister), this was her opening shot and reminder of her own local successes.

She said that Sao Paulo needed 3,000 more civil servants, claiming that the city had less than the estimated 28,000 already working for the city. When asked about her rejection levels – 25% last week in the Vox Populi poll, 17% of which said they found her unsympathetic – she said that while she wouldn’t challenge the public she hoped they would consider her administration’s achievements rather than on her personality.

She insisted that if elected she would fulfill her job as mayor: ‘I will work for this city above all and because it’s a privilege. I want to have the chance of being in charge of this city for four more years and leaving it better than when I started. What I want is to be mayor of this city for eight years.’

No matter how skeptical I might be, she may well ride it out. After all, who’s going to dislodge Lula in 2006?

And while Erundina may be one of those who finds Marta unsympathetic and not really representative of the PT, the petista used the interview to shower the former mayor with praise. As if that wasn’t enough, she sad that she also liked her as a person.

Aw, how sweet. I feel my eyes brimming up…

Money matters
On transport, which is her big card, following the flat-rate ticket, she said that while she would try and maintain the cost at R$1.70 (33p), she couldn’t guarantee it. She also refused to be drawn on whether the cost would rise next year.

If you’re hoping that it won’t, don’t hold your breath. I’m not.

Yesterday I reported that Marta had a Comical Paulo moment, when she called the country’s interest rates ‘pornographic’ and that under Lula they were the lowest for a decade. I found it a little odd, since in September 2002 they were 18% and currently they are at 15%. However, I know see her terms of reference were different to mine; she’s remembering when they reached the height of 38%.

Well yes, if you’re going to compare those of your friend’s to that. But the former government did still manage to get it down 20 points before losing office, didn’t they?

Even if she’s a bit shaky with the interest rates, she makes a good point on taxes. She accuses her rivals of all wanting to end the various taxes on rubbish collection and street lighting, but failing to say how it will get paid: ‘If you reject the city’s finances, you have to say where the money will come from. None of them has said where we’ll find R$200m that we’ll need for rubbish this year. I want to know where they’ll find it.’

That’s it: go girl, go!

Unfortunately she then spoils it all by linking it to a failure of the previous national government to provide adequate resources. I reckon you can only play that card for so long.

Rant
As if to reinforce that point, she emphasizes her theme that her main rival, Serra doesn’t have any real proposals to help the city: ‘He is against what I’m doing for this city.’ She then went on to say that a Serra-run city would just result in confrontation between Sao Paulo and the national government.

Of course, a vote for her would mean peace and love, and ‘partnership’ with Lula in Brasilia.

I almost feel like getting my beads and sandals out and strumming on the guitar…

After all this I may well need something like a holiday by the end of it all…

2004-09-16T11:55:00.000+01:00

Labouring for little reward
Paulo Maluf (PP) is really laying it on with a trowel. Even though he maintains there’s no agreement between him and the PT, he’s now going around saying that Marta’s ‘strong personality is important for public life… She has important qualities… she has personality, works hard and is strong-willed.’

Given the likelihood of a straight fight between Jose Serra (PSDB) and Marta Suplicy (PT) in the second round, his comment that ‘I will vote for Maluf in the second round. I’m recognized as the best mayor Sao Paulo has had.’

But oh deary me. After all the hard work Maluf’s been doing for Marta, now a snub. The PT candidate has said that ‘I would invite every one of Maluf’s voters to join me in the second round. But I’m not having Maluf in my team, no.’

Why should we vote for you again?
It was Marta’s turn in the chair to be interviewed by the Folha. She’s the current mayor of Sao Paulo, having been elected in 2000 over Maluf. She’s 59, a vice-president of the PT and a native of Sao Paulo. She studied psychology in both Brazil and America before becoming a TV sexologist in the 1980s. Marta joined the PT in 1983 and was elected to Congress in 1995. A feminist, she helped write the legislation which imposed a 25% minimum quota of female candidates by parties at election time and another which allows civil unions between gays.

Marta claims that during her administration she ‘broke the cycle of poverty when he introduced the CEU [unified educational centres].’ She promised to build 24 more, at a cost of around R$20m each. She also claimed to have dealt with the concerns of the wealthier areas of the city: ‘The main aim of the city must be to tackle exclusion. Everything I did was designed to change it to make it fairer for the poor. I’ve also not abandoned other parts of the city. We sought partners to improve the Ipiranga Museum, for example.’

Following yesterday’s reports that the PT was going to downgrade their proposed health policies, she didn’t mention the programme. But she did talk about what she had done: ‘You need to wait still for tests and consultations, but we are bringing health down to the city level. It’s a huge challenge. We shouldn’t forget HIV are half [what they were]. We had a dengue epidemic when I first started. We reduced child mortality.’ But it’s the minimum salary which she sees as her administration’s biggest social programme, claiming that it’s helped thousands of people.

Comical Paulo moment - from Marta
Marta blames the interest rates set under the previous national government of Fernando Henrique Cardoso, for causing city’s debts to be the way they are today. But oh dear. She seems to have taken a leaf out of Maluf’s book and indulged in a bit of silly Comical Paulo comment, claiming the rates were ‘pornographic’.

Once again visions of smut pumping out of the monetary policy committee reports continue to haunt me…

She then responded to a question that hadn’t Lula also maintained the same high rates, to which she said that no, ‘they are the lowest of the decade.’

Given that the interest rate was 18% in September 2002 , the month before Lula’s election, and is candidacy ‘converges with the priorities of the federal government’, while Serra is only ‘using City Hall as a vehicle for 2006.’ She said that the question of Maluf’s financial dealings had not been discussed by her campaign team, since it was currently in the hands of judges.

In other words, deal? What deal?

Focus group on love
Marta admitted to having conducted research into the effect her separation from her former husband, the senator Eduardo Suplicy, might have on public opinion. She justified it by saying that ‘When you are married to the most loved senator in the state and country, the separation shocks people... At the time we did some research which interested the party. And the impact showed the maturity of people in our city. They said that what she was doing was her problem. What I want to know is what she’s doing for the city.’

Wow. How unpleasant is that, being subjected to a focus group in that manner. It almost makes me wonder whether there’s a focus group in Buckingham Palace, sifting through Prince William’s girlfriends, trying to divine which should become his wife.

For the record, in early 2001 Marta left her husband and the results were never published by the party.

Sour grapes
A couple of weeks ago it was reported that the bidding process to get the city’s contract for rubbish collection was halted following irregularities. But Marta said in her Folha interview that she plans to bring the process to a conclusion by the end of the year and accused the PSDB of playing games. She claimed the same process had been followed in the Espirito Santo state capital, Vitoria, by the PSDB administration there; and it had worked.

Grasping with reality
Following Marta’s efforts to reinforce the referendum-like nature of this election on the current national government, Luiza Erundina (PSB) has weighed in with thoughts of her own. ‘The result of these municipal elections will be a warning to Lula’s government and the petista leadership,’ she said. She was then asked by journalists if she would consider accepting a job in the government. 'I don’t need a political role. If there’s one thing that I don’t need its power.’

That’s just as well then, given that she’s trailing fourth. A good sense of balance with our friend Maluf, when he’s in his Comical Paulo moments, should heed.

Planning by numbers
And while Marta was being interviewed by the Folha, Erundina was getting the same treatment from the Estado group. She said that the problems faced by the city require effective planning through the 39 neighbourhoods, with programme objectives divided into short medium and long-term. Because of Sao Paulo’s national profile she also believes it needs to be involved in economic planning to ensure long-term growth.

Comical Paulo moment - by Erundina
Erundina seems to be trying to keep her options open for the second round, whatever the PT may be doing. She said that she wasn’t seeking an alliance with anyone yet. But oh dear; just when I thought she was becoming realistic about her chances, she’s also gone and had a brief Comical Paulo moment too: ‘I think that 19 or 20 days is sufficient for us to change the situation… We’re intensifying the campaign and I believe we have a chance of getting to the second round.’

Luiza, love, please look at the polls: you have 3-4%.

Grumbles
Erundina used to be a member of the PT and was even a former mayor under their banner. But she thinks the party has changed, and that Marta doesn’t represent its original aims. She believes she represents the right wing of the party and is practicing her own brand of ‘malufismo’. She also criticised her concentrating on road works which benefit the better-off areas and that she’s failed to tackle unemployment and other social problems while raising taxes.

She also claims that she was a popular mayor and that in the last days of her administration she was drawing an 80% approval rating.

Right. So if she was so popular, remind me why the PT failed to win the city again in 1992?

Erundina also said that ‘We left health, education, management and other areas of the city in a better state than you find it today.’

Tricky thing, running for office
Erundina justified the decision to enter into an electoral alliance with the PMDB, saying that if it had only been her and the PSB, they wouldn’t have had sufficient political power to run.

Money matters
On the question of the rubbish collection, Erundina believes the tax system which was introduced by City Hall to be unconstitutional: ‘It wasn’t a tax created to solve an immediate financial problem. It was done to justify a fraudulent auction for an essential R$20bn 40 year service.’ She would renegotiate the city’s debts, ‘including two clauses in the agreement. The 25 year period is reasonable, as is the 6% interest rate per year. But this requirement to pay 20% of the principal amount each year and 13% interest on the servicing of the debt… That’s R$100m per month.’

While she approves of Marta’s flat-rate public transport ticket, Erundina would make some alterations. According to her the subsidy for the ticket to work will result in a deficit as yet uncalculated. ‘It’s unsustainable when you think of the huge debt that the city currently has.’

She also said it would be difficult for people using the ticket to get very far in the two-hour window allowed to users. Erundina believed that this should be addressed as well as its integration into all the public transport systems in the city, including the Metro, bus, train and regional transport.

Down, but not exactly out
Like Maluf, Erundina says this will be her last bid for an executive post. But for those who think the most grandmotherly of the four candidates is about to hang up her boots, she warns us all: ‘But I’m going to die doing politics.’

You have been warned. Expect Erundina at a speaking engagement near you.

Can't trust your own side
The PT’s president, Jose Genoino, said on Wednesday that the party was looking for support from the Erundina camp (PSB and PMDB) in the second round contest. While Erundina may have her grumbles about Marta, she may find it difficult to avoid listening to her PMDB allies, who form part of the governing coalition in City Hall.

More woe for Erundina yesterday: the electoral court decided to take away 64 seconds of her TV airtime for attacking Serra. The day before she was forced to give up some air time to Marta when she accused her of using the mayoral contest as a ‘trampoline’ for a bigger political job.

The left hand doesn't know what the right one is doing
Yesterday we noted that presidential chief-of-staff Jose Dirceu would run up the red flag if Serra reached 37% in the opinion polls. Well, he’s done that, in the Datafolha poll last week. But further analysis of Dirceu’s comments identifies a worry in the petista’s mind: if Serra reaches 39% there’s a chance this election could be over in the first round (and spare readers the prospect of nearly another month of this column). The reasoning is that as Maluf’s and Erundina’s figures fall, Serra will be the chief beneficiary of that support.

Marta was quick to contradict Dirceu: ‘He hasn’t yet seen the Ibope poll.’ It came out on Tuesday and showed that Serra was on 36% and Marta on 34%, effectively implying a tie at this stage given the 2-3% margin of error.

Sounds to me like people are talking out of turn. Could there be panic in the campaign office?

Jostling the vote
A bit of campaign argy-bargy occurred on Wednesday. Serra’s visit to the neighbourhood of Parelheiros had to be cut short when they found 50 campaign workers from the PT working the same area. As Serra met voters, the PT started shouting their support for Marta and blocking his passage. As if to compound the matter, the tucanos are now convinced the PT is following them around, trying to disrupt their campaign.

Nothing quite like some paranoia in the last few days, eh?

2004-09-15T11:38:00.000+01:00

Serra la!
It was Jose Serra’s (PSDB) turn in the Folha chair yesterday, after Erundina last week and Maluf on Monday. Serra is currently leading the polls to be mayor of Sao Paulo, a post which he previously ran for in 1992 and 1996.

This Folha profile shows that he was a student leader in the 1960s; after the military coup in 1964 he went into exile, in Bolivia, Uruguay and Chile before studying in America. He came back to Brazil in 1978 and was the economic and planning secretary in the city during the 1980s. Elected to Congress and the Senate he was made Planning Minister in the Fernando Henrique Cardoso government in 1995. After running for mayor in 1996 he came back to government in 1998 as Health Minister. He was his party’s presidential candidate in 2002, losing to Lula in the second round.

Unplanned
Serra criticised the current mayor Marta Suplicy’s (PT) apparent lack of planning. He used as an example the Fura-Fila light public transport system, which was started under Marta’s predecessor, but which ‘The present administration has spent more [on it] than the previous one.’

It wasn't me guv
His central theme for the election is health care, although Serra argues that he wasn’t responsible for making it the main area of debate: ‘The PT brought up the subject and put it at the centre. In 1996, the Maluf-Pitta [Paulo Maluf, the PP candidate in the current election] campaign made transport the main theme.’

Serra avoided discussing alliances for the second round, saying that ‘We don’t have an understanding with anyone until the second round. We’ll only do this when we reach that point.’ He also avoided saying which of Marta’s projects he would keep if elected: ‘Most of them are good proposals, but all of them aren’t completely sufficient.’

You'll have to take me out in a coffin
When he was pressed further on his future plans – and responding to the criticisms made by both Erundina (PSB) and Maluf this week – Serra said he wouldn’t leave his post as mayor if elected and that he wouldn’t run for president in 2006.

Sure. As any observer of Brazilian politics will know, the numbers of high profile politicians who complete their mandates are few and far between (with one or two notable exceptions). Some are guiltier of this than others though, although I won’t mention any names like Anthony Garotinho…

I like you, I really do
It was also noticed by journalists during the interview that Serra wasn’t attacking Maluf. He said that ‘because this in the judges’ hands I’m not going to make accusations. It’s not been concluded.’

But I suppose it also makes sense to say nothing if most of Maluf’s support would find its way to your campaign in the second round.

Skools and stuff...
On education, one of the areas where Marta appears to be doing better than him, Serra made his criticisms: The CEU [Unified Educational Centre] has 5% of students and uses up 40% of resources. All the other students have to make do with the remaining 40%.’ And on the current model of neighbourhood administration, Serra said he wouldn’t alter them since he believes there would be a political cost. However, he did go on to say appointments would be made to these subunits would be made on technical grounds rather than political ones.

Billy No-Mates
As for his campaign, he didn’t seem keen to discuss why his party colleague and former president FHC wasn’t out campaigning with him. His response was curt: ‘Ask him.’

It’s a good point though. Given the importance of this election, FHC has been strangely silent. Could it be he’s too busy putting together his own campaign for president in 2006?

You've been warned...
The PT campaign appears to be planning to step up its attacks on Serra, which will mean yet more vote-PSDB-and-watch-them-eat-your-babies talk. All good knock-about stuff for newspaper editors I suppose, but unless there’s a very good reason, like a failed policy initiative or statistical evidence, it won’t get covered here.

Sorry, but that’s the way it’s going to be.

Also in this same article it looks like the PT is toning down its health care proposals in what looks like a case of the Havaianas (i.e. flip flops to you and I). Some in the campaign team are worried that trying to talk about a subject that Serra clearly leads in doesn’t help at all. So they’re quietly going to relegate it and focus on their educational and transport policies – which you won’t be surprised to know is where the PT scores more highly.

Political dating
My, hasn't the PT campaign team been busy! They also found time to meet with the PSB’s national leadership to try and persuade their candidate, Erundina, to support Marta in the second round. But while the PSB may be receptive – both leaders and grassroots – Erundina may want some conditions before offering her support. She has been critical of Marta and claimed her administration has been corrupt, suggesting she is going to be quite prickly to deal with.

Even if she finds Marta and the PT anathema, what can Erundina really do? Last week she was grumbling at the PT’s encouragement to PSB party activists and supporters to join them, making her campaign that much harder. And with the PMDB as her financial backers in the electoral coalition, chances are she’s not going to be able to withstand the PT assault much longer.

Still, it must be frustrating to have your friends and allies picking over your bones before the first round has even taken place. And even more so when the electoral court decides to give your rival, Marta a minute of your own TV airtime in retaliation for a comment you made. In Erundina’s case, it was her claim that Marta was using the mayoral election as a trampoline to a bigger job in 2006.

It was him wot did it
An insight into the master of the dark arts today. No, not Harry Potter, but Duda Mendonca, who is running Marta’s re-election campaign. He’s suggesting that Sao Paulo state governor Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB) for raised the temperature of the campaign and forcing the PT into their attacks of him. According to Duda ‘the governor says the only partner for him is Serra. Is that right? He went beyond what was acceptable in that moment.’ And while the PT looks to be downgrading its own health care proposals, Duda said he was about to begin a campaign showing the figures for dengue fever, hepatitis and leprosy when Serra was Health Minister.

New poll
An Ibope poll came out yesterday, showing a tie between Serra and Marta. While Serra has 36%, Marta is on 34%; the margin of error is 2.8%. Since the last poll by the company, on 31 August, Serra increased his share by 2% and Marta by 4%. But in the second round Serra would win, by 54% to 38%.

Maluf and Erundina have each dropped a point, to 12% and 4%.

Don’t know about you, but I can see a Comical Paulo moment around the corner.

The poll will probably send jitters through the PT camp. In a meeting with PFL senators on Monday, the president’s chief of staff, Jose Dirceu, said that the situation would become complicated if Serra reached 37% in the share of the vote.

‘We’d raise the red flag,' he said.

And not necessarily to note the triumph of socialism over th decadent bourgeois scum either.

Chat show Paulo
Our old chum Maluf is getting quite a bit of attention lately. On Monday he was doing the Folha interview; Tuesday he was fielding questions from the Estado group. A lot of it was similar to his comments the other day, including his commitment to be mayor, unlike Serra. In fact there was a lot of criticism of the former Health Minister. How nice it must be for the PT to have their own right-wing attack dog to do their nasty business. Always assuming that he doesn’t go and foul their carpet as well…

He dismissed suggestions that ‘malufismo’ was becoming extinct by saying that he didn’t worry about the polls; if he did he wouldn’t be able to campaign. And would you believe it, but he’s given us a brief Comical Paulo moment when he refused to accept the idea that he wouldn’t make the second round: ‘the advice I give to them [73% voters who will vote Maluf in the first round and for Serra in the second] is to vote Maluf and get him to the second round. That way you won’t need a second choice. I won’t admit that I’m not going to make the second round. You win and lose elections on the day.’

Well, that’s true I suppose; but comments like that do smack a bit of desperation. Then again, maybe that’s what he needs. A cornered dog is far more likely to lash out.

OK, definitely enough canine metaphors for one day.

You couldn't find a gap between us, we're so close...
Wow, we’re in or a treat today kids. Not one, but two Comical Paulo moments. This time he’s taken to comparing himself to Lula, who was beaten in the presidential election three times: ‘If I’m honest, I’m a little like Lula in experience and perseverance because if you don’t enter the field you won’t win votes.’

Cue sound of jaw hitting the floor.

Once I've found the lower part of my skull and fitted it back into place, I feel I can comment. Obviously Lula and Maluf are like two peas in the pod; except for the minor detail that Lula was arrested by the military while Maluf was their mate.

My plans
If – and it’s a very big if – Maluf was to be elected, what would he do? Apparently he would end the taxes on rubbish, street lights and motoboys and concentrate on meeting the conditions set out in the Fiscal Responsibility Law. That’s a bit rich given that much of the city’s debt can be attributed to his time as mayor (1993-96) and that of his successor and protégé, Celso Pitta (1997-2000). Just as well then that he repeated his comments from earlier in the week that the city’s debts are unpayable.

2004-09-14T11:20:00.000+01:00

Dealing with debt? Don't panic!
The Folha, in its apparent quest to steer the agenda over the election, used Monday to challenge the candidates over Sao Paulo city’s debt. It reported that the city has a debt of R$27.6bn – more than double its liquid assets. The city has to reduce this to 1.78 times its assets by the end of next year under the Fiscal Responsibility Law.

The Law is perhaps one of the most important to have passed in recent years and symbolized the growing centralisation in federal-local relations during the 1990s. It was passed in 2000 in a desperate attempt to reign in excessive public spending. For years governors and mayors had used their positions to add numbers to the payroll. This form of patronage was extremely popular in Brazil and offered many people who might otherwise not have found work a sinecure.

The difficulty though is that once on the payroll it’s very hard to get someone off – even when they leave employment. Throughout the 1990s there were frequent examples showing how ghost public officials (those who had retired, pensioned off, disabled and in some cases families drawing on a dead relative’s pensions) were drawing state and municipal funds. Until 2000 the easiest way for a mayor or governor to deal with this was to build up debt, since chances were Brasilia would cover the cost with transfers. Failing that, at some point they would be voted out of office, so it would no longer be their problem.

The Law would curtail these practices, by limiting the amount which could be spent on staffing resources and the size of public debt that a city or state could have. Mayors and governors would also be made financially liable for any costs.

As for the candidates, none seem to think the debt can be reduced in the time envisaged by the law. Erundina (PSB) was reported saying that only a massive renegotiation of the debt could solve the problem. She also thinks the interest rates being paid by the authorities should be reviewed. Sao Paulo started by paying interest at 6% and it’s already risen to 9%.

Erundina’s comments came after Paulo Maluf (PP) spoke on the matter last week. Then he argued that it would be ‘impossible’ to repay the debt and that he would use 13% of the city’s assets to pay it off. The only alternative would be a renegotiation.

As for the current mayor, Marta Suplicy (PT), she said she would continue to pay all money owed by the city but said that a political solution would eventually be needed to meet the requirements laid out in the Fiscal Responsibility Law. She went on to say that ‘In May [2005], the federal Government will have to find a solution for Sao Paul state, Sao Paulo city and all the other states and cities which are not meeting the Law.'

Jose Serra (PSDB) doesn’t think the city debt is the main issue facing the city though. Instead he thinks it’s the budget deficit which will become vital in 2005, anticipating it to pass R$1bn this year.

However, he believes it can be dealt with in the short term by ‘reducing costs, revising the purchase system, stopping jobs for the boys and planning.’ Nevertheless, on the matter of the city debts, he thinks some kind of readjustment will be necessary next year if they are to be tackled. This could be done through a change in the indexing system tied to the debts.

Loyalty test
Even though Serra has regained the lead in the mayoral race, Marta can count on one advantage she has over her rival, slight though it is. Seventy-seven per cent say they will be sticking with the petista and won’t change their minds before October; this compares to 68% for Serra.

Among all voters, 69% say they are decided on their choice, leaving 29% who are not yet committed one way or the other. Of these 29% Serra leads with 29% of voters saying they will plump for him (Or maybe not. We don’t know. Oh don’t ask us yet!) With Marta second on 23% (maybe more, maybe less).

I never wanted to be governor
Hooray! Yesterday was the turn of our chum Maluf – or Comical Paulo, as I’ve been threatening to call him – to face a public discussion sponsored by the Folha de Sao Paulo. newspaper. For a brief profile of the man, the newspaper this: he’s 73 and trained as an engineer. He’s been beaten six times in direct elections since the country’s return to democracy in 1985 and this one will be, he claims, the last election he will fight.

Right. I’ll believe that when I see I don’t see his name on the ballot in two years’ time. And will he really want to remain out of the spotlight? Since he’s currently being investigated by the state and federal prosecutors and the federal police for moving public funds, tax evasion and money laundering, perhaps he might like some positive publicity in the future.

Unfortunately in his opening statement, he rather managed to forget the deal he had agreed with Marta and the PT to go on the attack against Serra. He took up the Erundina line (is there a campaign strategy which requires candidates facing electoral oblivion in the first round to parrot the same lines?) that Serra and Marta were more interested in positions other than being mayor. They weren’t anything like Maluf, who said, ‘I am the mayor who wants to be mayor. I don’t have other dreams. I only allow myself the hope of being reelected. I love this city.’

Aw, how sweet! Clearly being governor of the state (1979-82) and a congressman was just a terrible mistake: one day he was dreaming of being mayor; the next day he wakes up and finds he’s in charge of the entire state.

Vote for me
He then offered a record of achievement, including his own health programme and the public works carried out during his time as mayor (1993-96), including road building, tunnels under the Singapore Project. Never knowingly understated, he helpfully reminded the audience of that legacy: ‘If we could show a model of the city without the work I undertook, this city wouldn’t function.’

On the current campaign, Maluf claimed he would increase the amount of time with which the public could use the single ticket for public transport, from the current two hours to three. He also argued for more investment in the bus service.

Nice idea, but as ever with Maluf, the question must be: where’s the money?

Reds in the bed
It also wasn’t not long in coming before Maluf posted his ‘Comical Paulo’s thought for the day’ (readers will recall Maluf occasionally ascends into flights of verbal fancy which have won him the name, in homage to the talents and fame of the former Iraqi communications chief, Comical Ali). Maluf now thinks he believes he is ‘more communist’ than President Lula.

OK, the comment is less eye-catching than the headline offered by a cheeky sub-editor, but it is nonetheless amusing. The sight of Maluf going to his job each morning to run up the hammer and sickle outside City Hall while intoning the Red Flag before he begins work would be worth the entrance fee alone.

But wait: now I understand what it is about all these offshore bank accounts which don’t actually exist. They aren’t for personal gain but instead a massive collection for the socialist cause to be drawn upon when necessary. Good old Paulo! What a man! Supporting the proletariat cause!

Seriously, there’s a point behind this show of loyalty to the Workers of the World: as Eliane Cantanhede points out, Maluf can’t show overt support for Marta before the first round; so his support is coded through praise of Lula, who as the president, is not directly involved in this election.

I want more power!
Maluf later argued for responsibility of public security to be devolved from states to cities which have a population larger than 200,000. While the idea may be a popular one – not least because of the vigilante-inspired murders of several street people a few weeks ago – the details of how it might work in practice could be much more difficult.

Words of advice
He also criticised the public prosecutors and their investigations into his alleged movement of public funds. With his own creative and imaginative choice of words (he and the US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld are in a class of their own; must be something about conservatives…) he said it was ‘an incestuous marriage between press and prosecutors.’

He then claimed he was ‘less rich than before’ and ‘Whoever thinks they are going to get rich [in public life] shouldn’t enter it.’

On his offshore-bank-accounts-which-don’t-exist-but-if-they-did-they-would-help-my-brothers-the-workers Maluf again said he had none and that his lawyers had not had access to the documents relating to the investigations: ‘I see these [investigative] games aren’t ethical… I’ve never been condemned in court. I would like to have the right to defend myself.’

What's today's special?
Less than three weeks before the first round the PT has entered into talks with Erundina and the PSB over possible support in the second round. Given that Erundina’s campaign is now concentrating all its fire on Serra, they may well be pushing at an open door. However, if I was Erundina, I would also be wary of Marta’s comment that ‘I want the support of all Erundina’s and Maluf’s voters in the second round. We’re going to need a lot of support.’

Given that statement, Erundina may well want to be more forceful about the demands she places on Marta’s campaign team. But then her words at her public forum recently – that she would be prepared to support Marta – may well be taken as a sign that she’s sold the pass anyway.

Up and down

2004-09-13T13:23:00.000+01:00

The deal
Wow. What an unholy alliance, eh? Since I’ve been away for the last few days, the first thing I see on coming back is the rather disturbing news that Marta Suplicy and the PT has agreed a deal whereby the right-wing candidate Paulo Maluf (PP) will attack Jose Serra, the PSDB’s candidate and main rival to Marta.

But you are bound to wonder what Maluf is getting out of the deal. According to the Folha, he won’t have to worry about the congressional inquiry which is looking at the Banestado bank’s dealings. Maluf, as our regular readers will know, has an ‘interesting’ portfolio of offshore bank accounts which seem to get him into trouble on occasion. As Maluf came to realise that his chances of making the second round of the election were becoming more remote, such a deal became more attractive.

It’s all a case of the devil you know, isn’t it?

Over the weekend Maluf appeared to make good on the deal. He stepped up the attack on Serra, claiming that ‘We have a candidate [Serra] who ran in 88 and 96 and received a poor share of the vote. If he had been a good minister, he would have resolved the health problems in the country…’

And Maluf’s response? Bring back the PAS. It’s becoming a rallying cry, as if a return to his mayoral programme in the early to mid-1990s will deliver a land full of milk and honey.

Close but no banana
Marta’s street campaigning took her to the city market on Saturday, accompanied by her campaign manager, Duda Mendonca, and her husband. The Estadao reports that during her visit she heard more praise than criticism of her administration (always nice for the ego, don’t you think?)

Although she didn’t seem too thrilled by the questions from reporters regarding Erundina’s criticism from the previous night and refused to comment. The former mayor alleged there had been corruption in the bids surrounding the management of the rubbish collection service (a story which was covered last week and resulted in the process having to be reopened).

What is Maluf's secret?
Unfortunately this truce of sorts between Maluf and the PT didn’t last long. On Sunday he was criticising his new friends about the city’s finances. His one concession to the deal appeared to be an avoidance of Marta’s name during his comments. His argument revolved around the fact that more money was available to deal with the debt and public works needed: ‘I was mayor [1993-96] with a R$6bn budget and I changed the face of the city. Today’s budget is R$14bn… If there was better management, it wouldn’t be necessary to increase taxes.’

During his campaign visits he promised to install stalls next to all district level city offices, which he said ‘will help producers sell directly to consumers… [They] will offer fresh food, at cheap prices.’

In conversation with the vendors, he picked up a clove of garlic and said that ‘This is the secret for long life.’ He then showed the proprietor some garlic pills he takes around with him.

To all those who wonder how this man can survive the scandals he has, and his uncanny ability to come back from political death: we’re going to have to scratch our heads and go back to the drawing board: that’s one possible explanation written off.

What I want to do
Erundina was the first of the four main candidates to conduct a public discussion about her policies with the Folha newspaper in attendance this week. This Friday piece gives a profile of the former mayor, who looks uncannily like most people’s grandmother. But with red hair.

Born in the Northeast, Erundina was elected to Congress in 1988 and 2002 for the PSB, having joined in 1997 after she broke with her previous party, the PT. She had been a PT city councilor in 1983-87 and a state deputy in 1987-88. In 1988 she was elected mayor of Sao Paulo, after which she became administration minister (which involved shifting paper perhaps?) in the Franco government – the experience which brought about her fracture with the PT.

Although she’s lying fourth in the polls, she appears to be taking a straight-talking approach to her campaign. She refuses to complete any of the public works started by the present administration since she predicts there will be less money in the kitty in the coming years. She’s also criticised Marta’s education policies as expensive.

Last week she changed her campaign by attacking both Marta and Serra to focus solely on the tucano. This happened because according to analysts in her camp, if she can damage Serra, she will benefit.

The Folha has been running with regular updates of Erundina’s comments during her public discussion. In her attacks on Marta, she claims the mayor is ‘not very political’ and believes both she and Serra ‘are using the city as a political trampoline for future political projects.’
Although she wouldn’t stop Marta’s educational policies, she would change them. She doesn’t think the current system is particularly worthwhile, since they only reach 5% of those eligible for them.

However, she at least (unlike our good friend, Maluf) seems to realise that she’s not going to win. And she looks prepared to make a deal with the second round candidates: ‘Eventually [I may] support Marta, is she stops with the fraud taking place in the rubbish collection bid and the compromises she’s been making with the bus companies.’

Wot no PB?
Students of the PT will be aware that one of their best-known achievements is the participatory budget (PB). It’s the kind of project which has best practice and city administrator types wetting themselves, not to mention those on the further margins of the European left who see it as the distinguishing feature between the socialist vision presented by Lula and the old dinosaur approach of East Europe.

Enough of the lesson. What of it in Sao Paulo? Well, Serra has been attacking the model produced by Marta, claiming that the PB is ‘pure marketing. It’s like the Zero Hunger programme [run by the national government]. It doesn’t exist in practice. My budget will be truly democratic and not demagogic as it currently is.’

I know I don’t like to report criticism, especially when it’s not backed up with figures, but I’ll make an exception for this one; PB is a key policy in the ‘PT way of governing’ and hopefully we’ll see the subject returned to in more detail.

And we find we don’t need to wait too long. Marta’s been made the ‘pin-up girl’ for the PT and will appear in the party’s publicity in other campaigns around the country to show voters what the PT can do in government. The material will highlight her educational policies and the single public transport ticket, instead of the ideas used in the 1990s, most notably the participatory budget.

Looks like a case of been there, done that. I wonder how our friends on the left and the academics who have made their living analysing the PB and its role in developing democracy will take to this. Looks like it’s all change.

A true gentleman
Maluf seems quick to have noticed Marta’s new role as a ‘pin-up’. But then he does have a eye for the ladies, doesn’t he? After Marta’s claim that Serra was a chauvinist last week, Maluf has entered into the new understanding he has with the PT by saying that it is important to treat women ‘with more elegance’ and he shows this by always calling her ‘Dona Marta’ as a sign of respect.

Right… Forgive me if I’m mistaken, but wasn’t the reason he called her ‘Dona Marta’ to try and ridicule her over her two husbands (past and present)? Anyone with literary pretensions will know of Jorge Amado’s magical realist novel, Dona Flor and her Two Husbands, set in Salvador in the middle of the last century.

If Maluf is trying to turn a sow’s ear into a purse, he shouldn’t try. We here at this column are fans of his own flowerly use of the Portuguese language and his wit and wisdom (usually over his denial of any foreign bank accounts which he may or may not have).

(Note to PT: does calling Marta a 'pin up' really help when she's criticising others for being 'chauvanist'? Just a thought.)

And naturally, being ever the gentleman, Maluf denies making any deals with the PT.

But of course, dear fellow, of course.

What to do if they still won't vote for you
If the vote-for-the-PSDB-and-watch-them-eat-your-babies strategy doesn’t work, there’s always the carrot to try using. Humberto Costa, the health minister was reported to be saying while on a campaign visit elsewhere in the country that voting for the PT or its allies will help cities access more money. Costa said that ‘Obviously a mayor identified with the Health Department’s programme, the Lula government’s programme…is going to have a better chance to develop partnerships…’ before checking himself by claiming that ‘no-one will be discriminated against…’

We’re going to have to come up with a name for this approach. Perhaps we can call it the Gordon-Gecko-greed-is-good-but-only-if-you-mark-the-ballot-in-the-right-oh-here-let-me-help-you-way.

Or maybe not.

Not doing badly...
Marta’s approval ratings as mayor are good, although they haven’t yet reached the heady heights enjoyed by our chum, Maluf. An analysis by the Datafolha polling company shows that Marta has 42% of the electorate behind her, who thinks she’s doing well. Maluf managed 58% in October 1996, which helped him get his protégé, Celso Pitta, elected (but that’s another story).

...but not well enough either
But Marta’s pleasure will be tempered by a new poll on Sunday which showed that Serra had regained the lead, rising seven points since the last Datafolha poll was done, in the last week in August.

Serra is now on 37%, against Marta on 33% (who dropped one point). Maluf has fallen from 16% to 12% while Erundina has some reason to cheer, seeing her share rise by one point to 4%.

The poll also asked voters who they would vote for spontaneously. This is seen as a better marker of voter loyalty and awareness of a candidate then the considered approach. Serra did well here as well, with a similar rise of seven points to 27%, against 26% for Marta. Datafolha also noticed that Marta’s rejection level, which had been tumbling since June, appeared to have halted: between 29% and 30% would not vote for her. Maluf continues to have the highest rejection level, between 51% and 52%.

Fingers-in-ears-time once again
Naturally, it’s all wrong for Maluf. Datafolha is surely mistaken, with the candidate again questioning the methodology as he did last month: ‘I have no doubt that Datafolha made a mistake… In the street I’ve got between 25% and 30%.’

Now Paulo, you’ve been warned about this before. Anymore of this behaviour and I really will have to start calling you Comical Paulo, in homage of the great Iraqi Minister of Information, who maintained the trouncing that the Americans were receiving from Saddam’s forces during last year’s conflict.

No nail-biter in sight
And with Maluf elsewhere, muttering about the unfairness of it all, we can explore in more detail the implications of the poll. Unfortunately for us, who are trying to provide readers with a nail-biting and exciting finish – this may not happen. In a second round run-off Serra could expect 56% compared to Marta’s 37% - a rise of four points for Serra and a drop of three for Marta.
While Serra can count on 73% of Maluf’s vote in the second round, only 51% of Erundina’s support base would do the same. Expect the PT to continue to exploit its deal with Maluf and negotiate with Erundina over the next few weeks (especially as she’s focusing her guns solely on Serra).

Saying a little too much?
However, there is some concern that the PT campaigning machine may not be up to it. The communications minister and economist, Marcelo Sereno, believes that there will be a ‘million difficulties’ as a result of this year’s campaign. Although the party has a R$45m budget, it has had ‘with one or two exceptions…a poor campaign’ in the street.

Sao Paulo is one of those exceptions, because ‘The cities where the PT is in government are those with the most stable financial situations; they have established a relationship with that part of society which contributes most to campaigns.’

No doubt a good point, but admitting these limitations does strike me as stretching the brief of communications minister.

Fancy some Havaianas?
Marta has been berated in the past for her flip-flop approach to the state government, run by her rivals in the PSDB. When she wants to emphasise her ability to get things done and her ability to work as a partner, she praises the governor, Geraldo Alckmin. When she’s in her apocalyptic vote-PSDB-and-watch-them-east-your-babies mode, she’s invariably saying the opposite. It really should have a label, perhaps the Havaianas strategy; that’s the name of Brazil’s most famous flip-flop and sandals brand – available at all good retailers at an extortionate £20, a mark-up price four time larger than in Brazil. Particularly apt, especially when the communications minister is freely reporting the party’s budget at a heady R$45m (that’s a lot of flip-flops…).

Anyway, it appears Marta’s was doing a Havaianas on Friday, challenging Alckmin over his willingness to implement her single-fare ticket for public transport on the Metro (which the state seems to have responsibility for).

As ever, we will bring more examples of Havaianas – not only from Marta – as they happen.

Changing the tune

2004-09-10T11:11:00.000+01:00

If it's broke...
We’ve not heard much from Erundina (PSB) in the media recently. Probably because she’s seen her poll figures slump from 7% during August to around 3%. As the last of the ‘big four’, she’s rapidly becoming irrelevant to the first round of voting. But her support base will be of interest to the two front runners who make the second round (on current projections the PT’s Marta Suplicy and Jose Serra of the PSDB).

Unfortunately for Serra, Erundina is changing her campaign strategy. Instead of fighting on two fronts, she’s stopping her attacks on Marta and focusing on Serra. The reasoning behind the change – visible on TV and radio since Monday – is explained by the political commentator, James Lewis: ‘There’s an umbilical relationship between Serra and Erundina: if one goes up, the other comes down.’

I do wonder to what extent the decision to shift attention away from Marta is being driven from within the electoral coalition. Along with her street visits yesterday, it was noted in the Folha that Marta had been seeing meeting two members of the PMDB – a city councilor and a congressman – who are members of Erundina’s alliance.

Could there be discussions going on about which way to jump after the first round?

And while Erundina has been putting Serra in her sights, someone seems to have failed to get the message to the PSDB. They appear to be busy trying to win her over for the second round along with Paulo Maluf’s (PP) voters. As one of the campaign organizers, Walter Feldman, says: ‘We’re looking for Erundina’s support and we want the support of Maluf’s voters. The party won’t ask for any formal support from Maluf. But the polls show that the majority of malufistas would vote for Serra in the second round.’

Fight! Fight!
On Thursday there was a squabble between the Marta and Serra camps. Not really much to comment on, since both were throwing their toys out of their prams, with the usual denunciations and threats of the country going to pot if the other side wins. But I’ll limit myself to reporting that Marta called Serra a ‘male chauvinist’, which is relevant given Marta’s high profile and visible role as a leading feminist. You would think that someone like her wouldn’t use terms like that lightly.

Serra’s responded with a quip: ‘Rubbish doesn’t have either sex; it can be said by a man or a woman.’

On the gravy train
Aha, finally an attack between the PT and PSDB which actually appears to have some substance (limited though as it is) behind it. This Folha piece records Eduardo Suplicy (Sao Paulo senator and Marta’s former husband) as saying that the PSDB state government has been aiding and supporting cities run by their party colleagues over others. This follows a Folha article which suggested that the part of the state budget spent on cities in 2002 and 2003 shows that tucano cities received R$293.6m (36%) of the R$796.3m in voluntary transfers for public works and infrastructure development; PT cities received R$104.1m (or 13%).

The figures alone seem stark. But it would perhaps be of more value if we knew how much had been spent per capita in PT and PSDB cities. Anyone?

Negative campaigning? What do you mean negative?!
A consultant to the Estado Group which owns the Estado de Sao Paulo newspaper, Fatima Pacheco Jordao, gave an interview yesterday which suggests that Marta’s vote-PSDB-and-watch-them-eat-your-babies strategy may backfire. According to Fatima Jordao, the problem is that Marta is trying to bring the added dimension of the PT-PSDB conflict at the state and national levels while most people see the Sao Paulo poll as little more than a local contest: ‘Marta is playing chess while the voter is playing checkers.’

The consultant believes that the PT seems almost solely concerned with the Sao Paulo election, but that even though Marta’s strategy may have a negative effect, the PT won’t be beaten in October. The reason for this, she says, is because of the economic recovery in the country: ‘If they start to have a positive and real effect on people’s lives (like the ability to buy things)… they will help a lot.’

But Fatima Jordao thinks that while the economy can help the PT, the PSDB have a great ally in the state governor, Geraldo Alckmin: ‘…the tucano campaign has been selling the idea of a government in partnership, of projects done in partnership. And he only entered [the campaign] at the moment when Marta started to use his name when talking about partnership.’

Can't pay, won't pay
Maluf used Thursday to claim that Sao Paulo city’s debt is ‘unpayable’ and that he would renegotiate it with the authorities if elected. The candidate used his own unmatchable way with words to criticise not Marta, but the former federal government, of which Serra was a member: ‘The fault doesn’t lie with Marta. It’s the result of a perverse economic policy which benefited the banks. The tucanos introduced a policy of pornographic rates since 1995 which broke City Hall and is breaking Brazil.’

Pornographic? That’s an interesting choice of word there which conjures up visions of half-naked fiscal policies, bound and gagged exchange rates and a monetary supply dressed up in a gimp suit…

Sorry, I seemed to let my imagination run away a little there. Back to the job in hand…

Oh dear, I can’t seem to let it go.

Argh! Stop it!

Anyway… Do I detect a subtle bit of electioneering going on here? As the third placed candidate, Maluf would miss the second round. All his votes would go to Serra in that contest at the end of October unless he can somehow reign in wavering Serra votes.

Current estimates of Sao Paulo city debts are around R$28bn (£5.4bn). Maluf said that if he were elected he would use only a maximum of 13% of the budget to repay it.

Notwithstanding his populist take on the debt, you have to admire the chutzpah of the guy. After all, it was partly his administration (1993-96) and that of his protégé, Celso Pitta (1997-2000), who were responsible for the state of the city’s finances. And to turn around and say that he won’t pay it anymore…

That attitude was on show when asked about his decision to contact lawyers to stop investigations into his foreign bank accounts: ‘I’ve never had a conviction against me in 37 years of public life and I don’t admit to using any irregularities because I’m an honest man. I’ve already said I don’t have a foreign bank account.’

In a way I can’t help but admire the guy for the way he carries on. This guy could give master classes in being dodgy to some of the politicians in London. Or maybe we just have a lower threshold here.

What's the line?

2004-09-09T10:35:00.000+01:00

Blogger appeared to be down yesterday, so instead of one round-up today, you’re getting two (yesterday’s follows below this posting).

Health was so yesterday; look at this shiny bus ticket...
Marta Suplicy (PT) took to the TV on Tuesday to try and dictate the agenda. Having been knocked over the last couple of weeks for her lack of health policy, she used her ads to explain the single ticket for public transport – the one project which none of her rivals can challenge. Both Jose Serra (PSDB) and Paulo Maluf (PP) have said they would keep it in place if they were elected.

Getting the message right
As for the campaign as a whole, Marta’s TV spots are making greater us of her being seen next to the president and members of Congress – emphasising the nature of this election as a referendum on Lula’s first two years in office. However, the campaign team already is looking beyond the first round to the second round run-off with Serra. In the contest with him they are aware that they are drifting, with a higher rejection level than the former health minister.

One of the ways they hope to challenge Serra is to highlight the difference between him and his party colleagues in City Hall. Serra has said he will keep Marta’s single ticket for public transport in place if he wins the election. But the PT plans to highlight the fact that the tucano bloc in City Hall voted against the idea when it was first presented. The other plan is to take Marta out onto the streets, starting on Wednesday. She will spend time engaging with the public and holding public events to encourage involvement.

As if to reinforce the nature of this referendum, Marta went back into tucanos want to steal your babies mode again. She claimed her rivals wanted to use Sao Paulo as a means of opposition against the federal government. There then followed a eulogy of all the things Lula and her colleagues in Brasilia have done over the last two years.

Oops!
Someone must have failed to warn the Serra campaign ahead of his visit to a crèche for low-income families in the north of the city. Although it was established by the state government and has places for 1,000 children, a request by its management to increase the numbers by 20 were rejected by the same administration; all rather embarrassing given that the state government is run by the same party as Serra’s.

Long-windedness ahead
Just as the Estadao gears itself up to interview the mayoral candidates, so is the Folha now doing the same. In fact they’ve stolen a march on the other Sao Paulo newspaper, by starting their interviews this Friday, with Erundina (PSB). On Monday it will be Maluf’s turn, followed by Serra the day after and Marta on Wednesday. Members of the public can also attend and ask questions as well. Anyone planning a short trip to Sao Paulo who fancies themselves with the language can email the Folha at candidatosnafolha@folha.com.br if they are really interested.

You've got some change? Here let me spend it for you...
During his term of office as mayor between 1993 and 1996, Maluf produced his own health plan for the city, the PAS. It was scrapped by his successor and protégé, Celso Pitta, when it became too costly to maintain.

Now that he’s said his piece on road improvements (I hope), Maluf has turned his attention to health and used the Wednesday TV ad space to talk about a ‘new PAS’ which he would introduce if elected. According to him it would operate with a card that the user would be able to use at any hospital he or she chose. The card would also entitle the user to free medicines.

‘This will be a real revolution in health,’ he claims, without saying how it will be paid for.

He’s also looking at a new version of his Singapore Plan, which would improve the city’s favelas, including the construction of 40,000 new homes, new crèches, schools and leisure areas.

I’m starting to feel like shouting out the catchphrase of Cuba Gooding Jr’s character in Jerry Maguire (which I incidentally saw this week): Show me the money!

Meanwhile Marta’s TV ad used the Maluf-Pitta era to explain why her own health plans were being proposed on Wednesday: ‘The money that City Hall has to pay each month for debts left by Pitta could provide 10 health CEUs. All would be new and fully equipped and ready for action. The health CEU project is creative and practical and it’s not expensive.’

Which bit didn't you understand?
You’ve got to hand it to Maluf. Not only does he promise the earth with other people’s money, he also really does have a way with words. On Wednesday he was asked by the electoral court to clarify a statement he made in June when he was asked about his foreign bank accounts. The public prosecutor complained at Maluf’s comments that ‘I’m sorry the public prosecutor…has turned itself into one of Serra’s election committees… Now I’m sorry that Serra has become a vampire of sordidness.’

Once again, I’m left speechless.

Independence Day antics

2004-09-08T10:46:00.000+01:00

Rap da vote
It being Independence Day, it’s fun to see how the candidates have been exploiting the occasion. While Jose Serra (PSDB) has been taking a patriotic turn and draping himself in the flag (or as in this case, getting kids to form the flag themselves), Marta Suplicy (PT) has been out campaigning with the rapper Xis (pronounced Shish) in the east of the city.

After Serra’s attempt to get down wiv the kidz, on Independence Day it was Marta’s turn. Apparently she has more street cred, the PT being more closely associated with hip hop. Depressingly for those of us not into urban music (although I’ll make a concession for old skool drum and bass) a new campaign jingle has been cobbled together, using rap as the medium.

Flagging the vote
Even on a national day, the efficiency of some campaign workers is stunning. How else to explain this story in the Folha which suggests the PT has been industriously working he vote around the Independence Day celebrations.

Around 9pm vans with sound systems and campaign leaflets arrived near the centre of the Sao Paulo celebrations. At the end of the march in the Sambodromo they moved to the nearby Jose Tomaseli Square, where they began to leaflet the public. When asked about it, a member of the PT campaign team said that if this had happened, it ‘had not been planned’.

In other words it was about as spontaneous as an arthritic old dog getting up.

Not that the PT’s rivals are likely to complain. The article notes that campaign workers from different parties were all handing out leaflets.

An early Christmas present
After the furore surrounding Marta’s health secretary last week (calling the press in and trying to ‘sell’ the campaign’s health plans; result, slap on the wrist) the electoral court has a present for Gonzalo Vecina. Just don’t call the judge Santa Claus, whatever you do.

Vecina was called Santa Claus by the PTC mayoral candidate, Ciro Moura, in his TV ad. Moura was using the name to criticise the PT’s health plans. Initially Vecina saw the joke and played along in his interview with the press. But Moura overstepped the mark and turned it into what the electoral court considered a personal attack, especially since Vecina has a beard similar to Santa’s. Vecina will now have a one minute right of reply in a PTC TV ad.

I wonder if the PT thinks its Christmases have all come at once.

Bad joke, I know. Sorry.

Spend a penny
The case of who has been spending more on publicity won’t go away. Geraldo Alckmin, the PSDB governor for Sao Paulo state has said that ‘I’ve calculated that… the government spent 80 cents per capita in state publicity and the city R$4.’

Alckmin made the statement after a document from the PT campaign stated that the state government had spent ‘more than R$50m to try and influence the electorate with expensive insertions during the main TV viewing hours’. Marta’s team also claim that the state had not included the amount spent by state-owned companies including CDHU and Sabesp, both of which are responsible for much of the money spent on such publicity.

The question of who is spending more to win votes is becoming quite a hot topic this week. And as one of our Sao Paulo-based readers has so eloquently put it to us, ‘One major issue to arise out of the last presidential election, again present in this local one, is the growing role of marketing and political propaganda consultants in all aspects of the campaigns. The three leading candidates (Paulo Maluf [PP], Marta, and Serra) rely heavily on these tools, and the gloss with which this trend smittens the campaign ... brings a feeling of absurdity as the population watches the always sensual temptress, Populism...’

The man behind the candidate
Our correspondent also points out that Marta’s campaign guru, Duda Mendonca, was once advisor to Maluf, during his successful bid to become Sao Paulo mayor a decade ago. For those who might be interested in reading a little more about Mendonca, this al-Jazeera his limitations.

Sound advice
Finally, in the continuing absence of any Estadao coverage (I suspect they may be saving themselves for their comprehensive one-on-one interviews with each of the candidates next week), here’s a guide from a website, Politica para Politicos (Politics for Politicians) designed to help all Brazilian candidates in the run-up to the election:

‘What to do when you are attacked – Part 1
…As a general rule, the candidate should react to an unfavourable fact in the following way:
1. Ignore it
2. Minimise it
3. Give a documented explanation which stops the questions
4. If none of the first three are possible, leave it at the very least a ‘reasonable doubt’ in the voter’s mind.’

And if you don’t believe that can work, just look at Maluf. Allegations of money laundering through casinos, arrest in Paris, frozen bank accounts in Switzerland and Jersey – and still the man has around a fifth of the vote.

2004-09-07T11:06:00.000+01:00

Doing it for civic duty
7 September is Brazilian National Day, the occasion when Dom Pedro declared his independence from his father and Portugal. While I’m going to be networking at the embassy here in London (and encouraging them to read this blog), in Sao Paulo Marta Suplicy (PT) and the PSDB state governor, Geraldo Alckmin, are going to have to stand side by side for a march at the Sambodromo. Seven thousand marchers are expected to take part and entrance will be free.

Seeking the Lord's favour
Marta is definitely on a roll with the religious vote. A day after receiving the support of 20,000 evangelical leaders, on Monday she was praised by the Catholics. Part of the appeal for the Church come from Marta’s choice of running mate, Rui Falcao worked for five years in the housing movement in Fazenda da Juta, an area in the east of the city. The area has also been named as the first Special Zone of Social Interest (ZEIS) by the city authorities.

But even if the Church expressed their enthusiasm, they curbed it as well. Following a meeting of the National Conference of Brazilian Bishops (CNBB) last week it was made clear that religious leaders couldn’t actively endorse one candidate over another.

Still, a little praise doesn’t go amiss, does it?

As if the religious vote wasn’t enough, Marta also spent the morning with the women’s national football team, which won a silver medal at the Olympic Games.

Did anyone think of the subliminal message present in placing her next to a team which came second?

Delusional?
Paulo Maluf (PP) is more than happy with his showing in the recent Vox Populi poll. It puts him on 21% of the vote, compared to Jose Serra’s (PSDB) 25% - within catching distance of making the second round: ‘We [he and Serra] are tied for second place,’ Maluf said, failing to notice the four-point gap between them and the 3.1% margin of error. In further comments he also mentioned that if elected he wouldn’t try to renegotiate the city’s debt.

I suspect the reason for this statement is to distinguish him from Marta, who got a deal from the federal government to pay its debt back at the end of the month rather than at the beginning. He probably wants to show he’s his own man and doesn’t need favours from contacts in Brasilia.

His campaign visits on Monday included a visit to the Museum of Japanese Immigration and a cosmetics shop. Sorry? Can you run that by me again? A cosmetics shop? Now there’s only so much you can do with a guy like Maluf. Mutton dressed as lamb springs to mind…

Lashings of cash
A Folha report claims that the 377,000 candidates for election this year could spend R$16.3bn (£3.1bn). At least that is the amount which would be spent by the candidates if they spend the entire limit they have registered themselves for doing between now and October.

And surprisingly, Sao Paulo candidates haven’t registered the most amounts; between them they will spend R$50m (£9.7m) if they all reach the upper limits of their proposed budgets. This would work out at R$15m (£2.9m) for Marta, Serra and Erundina with Maluf only spending R$5m (£970,000). Maluf’s party colleague, Nilson Baiano, who is candidate for mayor in the Espirito Santo state capital, Vitoria, has registered himself to spend R$3bn (£580m) while a PDT candidate in the same city has potentially the most expensive city council election budget – R$250m (£48m).

Kidz and skoolz
On the TV spots Marta is now publicising her visits around the city. After space was given to her visit to Sao Paulo’s eastern boroughs, Monday’s ad looked at her activities in the south. She used the time to publicise her administration’s work, including the construction of five bus terminals and public works in sections of 36 favelas. She also plugged the education CEUs again and promised to build nine more if elected. A development program was also muted, which would boost jobs – an important issue, given the loss of nearly 20,000 in the Pinheiros region during the 1990s.

Meanwhile Serra was out saying he was down wiv the kidz, showing max respect to the yoof of Sampa (as locals call their city – I should also mention that he wasn’t rapping; that’s me being facetious). No, instead Serra was less bling, bling and more pol, pol: ‘The mayor has to lead a movement in support of the young.’

Not the most inspiring choice of words it should be said…

As for Maluf? After the Vox Populi poll he’s back to making promises about roads and speaking in his idiosyncratic fashion: ‘the western and northern boroughs are a ten [an illusion to marks out of ten perhaps?] and with me they’ll be an 11’ (11 being his and his party’s election number).

If he carries on at this rate Maluf is going to get the reputation (from me at any rate) of being the Spinal Tap of this election.

Down again...
But trouble could be afoot for Maluf after another poll this week which puts Serra in the lead over Marta. The GPP Institute says Serra has 36% of the vote, with Marta on 32%. After his recent good humour, Maluf may well find himself grumbling and questioning the methodology again, with a share of 15.5%. Erundina (PSB) trails in on 3.5%. And Serra would easily beat Marta in a projected second round, by 55% to 35.5%.

Wot, me benefit?
No news on the Estadao today, so I’ve turned to the country’s main internet provider, Terra, for some election coverage. On Monday it transpires that Serra claimed that the rise in publicity by Sao Paulo’s state government publicity wasn’t benefiting his campaign.

Serra argued that ‘What the state government spends is less than that of the city…’ The subject arose after the PT party president, Jose Genoino, accused Alckmin of using state government publicity to further Serra’s campaign. The claim comes from figures which show the state government increased its spending by 158% compared to the city’s 57%.

Weekend roundup

2004-09-06T11:46:00.000+01:00

Firey lot in the ivory tower
On Friday it was reported Marta cancelled a ‘debate with the academic community’ which would have taken place on Thursday – to avoid a demonstration by employees against the federal government. Although she met the Federal University of Sao Paulo’s president, she refused to stay for the question and answer session, when she might have been challenged by teachers who have been on strike for a month. The protests appear to have been sparked by the growing cost of living faced by academics.

Tangled in red tape?
Although the Folha seems to think that it’s news when Jose Serra (PSDB) talked as if he had already been elected, the details are much more interesting. He was at a meeting of the Sao Paulo’s Engineering Institute where he was listening to the civil construction union president, Joao Claudio Robusti. Robusti argued the city’s bureaucracy needs to be cut back to make investments easier. Serra proposed a working group to be set up on the matter, ‘after the election but before formally taking up the mayoral post.’

Unfortunately this blog will end after the election. But we encourage eagle-eyed readers to keep an eye on this commitment and its recommendations.

Ban revisited
After the electoral court’s decision last week to prevent kids from using the educational CEUs during the election period (for fear of Marta’s team making electoral capital out of them), finally some sense – at least in PT eyes. A judge has partially lifted the ban as long as certain guidelines are followed and justifiable educational requirements are made.

Popularity contest
The polling figures continue to be dissected and analysed. The Datafolha poll from last week shows that among the poorest and most marginalised in Sao Paulo Marta is ahead of Serra, by 42% to 26%. In the richer areas of the city – west and centre – Serra leads by 31% to 30% (Marta’s closer score is testament to her background as being a moderate and upper-middle class member of the PT).

But Serra does well in the middle class and median areas of the city by levels of between 32-33% to Marta’s 26%-31%. Serra’s good showing may be attributed to the growing polarization between him and Marta and the fall in support for Paulo Maluf (PP). ‘This is an anti-Maluf vote. The half that support Maluf, they don’t have a candidate for the right. They’re orphans. And as the results of the projected second round show, these votes would transfer to Serra,’ says Teixeira Mendes, a former Datafolha director.

Of those who would support Maluf in the first round, 69% would vote for Serra in the second round in a contest between him and Marta. Only 18% of former Maluf voters would support the PT candidate.

Even without a presence in the second round, the right and Maluf may well be able to extract a concession or two from Serra.

New polls, same old figures...
Finally a change to the Datafolha poll. Vox Populi’s latest has come out and it shows Marta’s lead over Serra widening – at least in the first round. Since last month (11 August) Marta’s share has grown from 28% to 33% compared to Serra’s 23% to 25%. Maluf has dropped a few points, from 23% to 21%. And Erundina (PSB) seems to be speaking to no-one but herself: her figures are slumping towards the zero mark: 7% in August, 3% in September.

However, in a second round run-off Marta would still lose to Serra: 53% to 37%.

But for Maluf finally some respite. After his bitterness last week that Datafolha’s polling was all wrong, he has said he’s happy with the Vox Populi result.

And even though he’s happy, the people he was meeting weren’t: business people and residents at an event were disappointed when he left a meeting with them without cutting the birthday cake they had brought out for him. Hope he didn’t lose any possible voters there!

Health clean-up
On Friday Serra used the opportunity of a visit to Campo Limpo in the south of the city to ‘rethink the whole issue of public health’ in Sao Paulo. After complaints from local residents about the lack of medicines and health clinics, he said that ‘The priorities of this area are very different to those of other parts of the city, starting with the Campo hospital which is overloaded.’

Another request from locals was that Serra commit to working with the state government to improve the state of the Metro system. Serra also expressed his intention to protect the water springs in the south of the city, which have a key role there. He said it was important to have clean water and suggested the use of the municipal police force [as opposed to the state police] to protect the environment where the springs are located.

Geographically poor
This variation in the vote by income should also influence the city authorities’ social policies. That’s the view of Eduardo Marques, a sociologist at USP and the Centre of Metropolitan Studies at CEBRAP. He’s preparing a book with Haroldo Torres called Sao Paulo: Segregation, Poverty and Social Inequalities.

According to Marques geography can help reproduce poverty over generations and should be one of the criteria used when deciding which social policies to use. The Folha interviewed him at the weekend. One of the things he was asked on was the impact the flat-rate ticket has had on transport in dealing with segregation. He responded by saying that ‘No-one has any idea what the impact is. No-one can determine it yet. Most activity happens based on formal and informal markets. Illegality has a price too: a house in a favela [shanty town] can also be expensive. These values are imbued in transport costs. So when you change transport costs radically with a flat-rate ticket you potentially change the situation of an enormous number of social groups and economic activities, especially those with the lowest income. Low-income workers who use transport will find significant changes: it’s possible economic differences may be reduced…’

Psst, need a ticket mate?
Transport looks set to become the subject of the week. I wonder to what extent this has to do with Folha coverage over the weekend and an agenda in the editorial office?

An article has looked at the fall in use of public transport over the last decade and its rising cost. The present rate of inflation should mean that the cost of a ticket should be 65 cents (12p). But inflation wasn’t used and the result was the cost of a flat-rate ticket of up to two hours' use being R$1.70 (33p). The blame for this is laid in varying degrees with the last three administrations of Maluf, Celso Pitta and Marta.

Naturally representatives of the Maluf and Pitta administrations reject these claims while Marta’s campaign team refused to be interviewed.

But it’s not just Sao Paulo where costs have risen. In the five years between 1998 and 2003 I’ve seen bus fares in Rio rise from around 60 cents to R$1.50 – a pretty hefty whack especially if you’re having to sit a long time on the streets of Copacabana…

Further reporting shows that while the mayoral candidates are all to keen to talk about integrated transport, none of the candidates will say how much Joe Public will have to pay although currently a flat-rate bus ticket costs R$1.70 (33p) for two hours and R$1.90 (36p) for the Metro. A ticket, which provides access to both bus and Metro is R$3.15 (60p).

And that appears to be the way it’s going to stay. As a result the voter tends to assume that the cost of a flat-rate, unified ticket will cost R$1.70. But for that to happen a steep rise in transport subsidy would be needed.

When asked, Serra said that ‘If you ask me what the cost is going to be, it’s difficult to say just now.’ And Marta’s crew were asked whether the cost should be close to R$1.70. They declined to answer and then launched into an attack on the state government for failing to have integrated the various systems until now.

Hallelujah
Marta used the weekend to seek evangelical votes. In a poll early in August Datafolha observed that Marta had a 33% to 23% lead over Serra in the battle for this group’s support. Marta may also benefited from the support the evangelicals gave to other members of the PT in the 2002 elections, including the party president, Jose Genoino and Lula, for their ‘personal characters’. Having a member of the evangelical-friendly Liberal Party as his running mate probably also helped Lula as well, methinks.

Sao Paulo’s evangelical population is 16% compared to the national average of 9%.

Oi mate, don't I know you from somewhere?
Maluf spent the weekend speaking to 350 taxi drivers, cultivating their vote. After a rant against the current administration and the PSDB candidate, Maluf promised to reduce taxes and finds ways of providing greater security for those working at night.

Of course attending a meeting can also be a useful way of earning a buck as well. The Estadao reports that the taxi drivers who sat through the Maluf event received between R$60 and R$100 (£11-19) depending on the company. Of course some argued that Maluf was the taxi-driver’s candidate, regardless of the financial inducement, welcome as it was.

Of course.

A campaign worker's diary (not for the faint-hearted)
Finally, a story about a real person! The Folha ran a story on Sunday about Jose Epaminondas (the name is false and you’ll see why). He’s 23 and carries a flag for the PSDB candidate through the centre of Sao Paulo from 9am to 5pm every day. When he gets home in the north of the city he changes from yellow and blue to red and white and then works for the PT campaign from 10.30pm until 5am. ‘I sleep on the bus and in the time between the two campaigns. At the moment, I sleep around three hours a day.’

For his work Epaminondas earns R$20 (£3.84) per day carrying Serra’s flag. The pay doesn’t include lunch or transport. When he works for Marta he earns R$25 (£4.80) and organises campaign material and does filing. He also gets food, drink and clothes.

And who will he eventually vote for, asks the Folha? ‘I’ll vote for Marta. Not because she pays better [laughs]. Her business is working for the poor. Serra is for the upper classes.’

Several other examples of campaign workers are given in the article, some of whom work eight hours a day. Some are paid while others claim to be doing it for nothing.

Sheds a whole new light on the way campaigning is done, doesn’t it? Makes me wonder whether I could charge for my services…

Just cause

2004-09-04T11:32:00.000+01:00

Guy writes about why we're doing this blog in Brazzil.

Let's work on those comments, OK?

2004-09-03T11:46:00.000+01:00

New policy
OK. This is how it’s going to be: I’m not going to comment on the squabbling going on between the main rivals in this contest, the PT or the PSDB. Not unless they have some substance to their criticisms which moves the debate on.

Why am I taking this policy? Well, there is a whole story in the Folha dedicated to these two parties’ views of the other. How can claiming that the ‘PT is tense and nervous’ and criticises ‘without foundation’ be news?

So that’s the new policy then: we’re sticking to policy developments, publicity campaigns – but no electoral waffle from the candidates and their cronies.

Except for Paulo Maluf (PP), who is gaining a reputation as a comical genius with his utterances.

And another new policy - this time from a candidate
Sadly though, Maluf has decided to park his humour at a half built lay-by (remember, this is the candidate whose grand vision involves plenty of road works if elected) and concentrate on the subjects the voters are far more interested in: health and education.

He’s countering Marta Suplicy’s (PT) health and education CEUs with his own plans: PAS (health) and PAE (education). Although the technical and financial details to the health plan haven’t been worked out yet, its central idea will involve a card which guarantees the user service both in the public and private sectors. The only thing we do know is that it would cost between R$1.3-1.5bn, around 12% of the city’s annual budget.

That’s a lot of money along with the R$2.4bn Maluf pledged last week that he will spend on roads over the next four years.

I’d like to know how much he’s proposing for his education plan, which was presented nearly a month ago and would involve the city spending money to send kids to private schools. But the Estadao reports that And he aims to address that by finding 400,000 places.

But we shouldn’t be hard on the old boy. He’s 73 today. And when asked what he would most like as a present, he replied: ‘To serve Sao Paulo.’

Hmm, I don’t know about you, but it’s just a touch too sycophantic, wouldn’t you say?

Knock, knock
Even though Marta and Jose Serra (PSDB) are scrapping it out for first place, there is one area where Marta is streets ahead. The Datafolha poll from last week shows that 20% of paulistanos have received a visit from the PT, compared to just 2% of those who had had a visit from a toucano. Maluf and Erundina (PSB) have also only reached 1% of the electorate on their doorstep.

With 7.7m voters in Sao Paulo that means around 1.5m have had a knock at the door from Marta’s men. Serra’s lot will have only reached 154,000.

The PT has been prioritizing the poorer areas of the city, especially the east where 24% say the have had a visit. The PSDB has been focusing attention on the north and the areas closer to the centre of the city. According to research from the Centre of Metropolitan Studies at CEBRAP, figures from the last election in 2000 show that the PT did well in the border areas of Sao Paulo while the PSDB was the party of choice in the centre and west.

The Datafolha findings also show that the PT is more likely to visit the poorer and less educated sections of the city; women were also more likely to hear from them too. But unlike most door-stepping that I’ve done, the personal contact didn’t extend to handing over a leaflet or information about the party (63% claimed the campaigners left no publicity material). Rather the point of visiting was to maintain personal contact.

In my recent election I was never allowed out the door without a bundle of papers under each arm…

Banned
Marta’s been banned from allowing kids to use the education CEUs during the election period. The electoral court decided that it could be construed as electioneering. Naturally Marta’s peeved, saying that ‘You’re now saying that the children are banned from attending theatre classes because of the election. Then City Hall should close for two months.’ She’s going to appeal against the decision.

What will you do as mayor?
On Monday, 14 September, the Estadao group will begin a series of interviews with the four main candidates for mayor. Maluf will start, followed by Erundina the next day and then Marta and Serra. The interviews will last two hours and also be available on Radio Eldorado if anyone’s so inclined to listen. This follows a similar project undertaken with the presidential candidates in 2002.

Averting the apocalypse...

2004-09-02T12:53:00.001+01:00

Don't vote for the baby-snatchers!
Sao Paulo’s mayor and re-election candidate, Marta Suplicy (PT) is on the attack again. In TV spots for the council candidates, they highlighted the fact that they have done more for education and transport in the city than the state government (run by their main rivals, the PSDB) has done. The ad also claimed that Marta was best placed to deal with Brasilia: the PT senator, Aloizio Mercadante claimed that ‘Sao Paulo state and city are divided. The only one who can guarantee the necessary resources is the federal government.'

And who runs the government in Brasilia? That’s right; Marta’s party chum, Lula.

You couldn’t be more blunt if you tried. Except for maybe claiming that a vote for PSDB is a vote for the child snatchers…

Oh wait, they have. In a meeting with business people in the south of the city Marta said that ‘It’s always been a game with Sao Paulo; the PSDB has never wanted what’s best for the city,’ arguing that the previous FHC administration had failed to provide sufficient funds during the first two years of her mayoralty, including a loan from the state development bank of R$494m.

The result? Sao Paulo was made to live on ‘bread and water' (not my words I hasten to add).

But with first hers and then Lula’s election two years ago, Sao Paulo has entered the land of milk and honey. And ‘with our re-election, we’re going to continue to do what’s right for Sao Paulo.’

So now you know.

Hello, hello, hello, what have we here?
Marta was also busy on Wednesday, developing the ideas of her health CEUs (that’s clinics to you and me). They won’t be managed to the city directly but rather by not-for-profit bodies. The program will cost an initial R$100m (equal to 5% of the 2005 budget), not counting federal transfers.

Only 10 of the proposed 40 centres will be built from scratch, starting next year, with the first to open in 2006. Other technical details include the organisations in charge of the centres contracting and managing medical staff directly, as well as doing any refurbishments.

Don’t ask me to make any sense of this health care reform and whether it will make much difference. I’ve struggled to understand NHS changes in Britain over the years and given up.

Beyond the details, her health secretary, Gonzalo Vecina Neto, had a rude shock this week as well. Following his decision to call the press into his office on Tuesday to ‘sell’ the health CEU scheme, the public prosecutor has begun an investigation to determine whether he committed an ‘electoral crime’.

For those who are really into this kind of stuff, the prosecutor cited Article 73 of Law 9504 which prevents public individuals from ‘using public goods to benefit a candidate, party or coalition’ and ‘civil servants or individuals employed by an administration are prohibited from offering their services to election campaign committees of a candidate, political party or coalition’.

Somehow I doubt this going very far. But you never know…

Honestly, this election is more exciting than it looks
The Estadao has interviewed the executive director of the polling company Ibope, Marcia Cavallari. As if we didn’t know already she repeats the refrain that the contest has become polarised around Marta and Jose Serra (PSDB). Serra’s rise during August following a July slump she attributes to his having ‘concrete experience in this area [health] and this has maintained the interest of people. Marta is conscious that she hasn’t done much in this area, but she’s asking the public to give her a chance.’

And although polls suggest Serra will beat Marta in a straight fight in the second round, Cavallari is less sure: ‘The second round will be a new election, with new support, new coalitions and new positioning by the candidates.’ Marta could well be helped by the fact that although her rejection level is higher than Serra’s, each poll reduced the number of voters who would never vote for her.

I suppose that's one way of keeping the punters interested.

Paulo's comedy turn
As for the candidates themselves, Paulo Maluf (PP) though, I can’t decide whether it’s a cry of anguish or utter inability to deal with the facts in front of him. He’s claiming the Ibope poll must be wrong and that he hasn’t fallen 4 points to 14%. He’s using past mistakes by Ibope, including the 1998 prediction that the PT’s Christovam Buarque would beat Joaquim Roriz to become Brasilia’s governor, only to eventually lose (at this point may I plug my own research into the matter, which can be found in this book here?). Maluf said that ‘There wasn’t any fraud, but they [Ibope] got it wrong. It’s not possible to take 800 people and reach a result… We have elections to show how wrong they are.’

Really, when you think about it, scandal-ridden as he is and distinctly dodgy in his political views, he is providing the entertainment in this election.

Everyone's home but the lights aren't on
Not content with attacking her over health, Serra decided to criticise Marta over the city's charges for street lighting. Since May 2003 paulistanos have paid between R$3.50 and R$11 per month for lights – lights which don’t seem to work.

And before anyone starts writing in asking how many petistas or tucanos it takes to change a light bulb, don’t bother, OK?

Build the vote
Meanwhile Marta has been visiting Maluf country – or rather, where his vote has usually resided, in the east of the city. On Tuesday she was making promises to the locals and highlighting her achievements. She pointed out the current road works (oh, not her as well) was directed towards getting a foreign company to come into the east of the city where it would help improve its economic prospects. ‘A third of Sao Paulo’s population lives in the east, but there are only 5% of jobs there,’ she said. She went on to say that she would complete road works begun by Maluf while mayor in that area and would build 18 of her health CEUs there, along with the nine educational CEUs which are already there.

Seems to me that Marta has gotten stung by the bug called malufismo. Usually this involves a promise to build a grand projet and see those votes roll in. Whether the project is ever finished is neither here nor there.

President or mayor, he's not fussy

2004-09-01T13:46:00.000+01:00

More (English) reporting of Serra's recent opinion poll lead, if you're interested.

Penalising the small

2004-09-01T10:39:00.000+01:00

On the road again...
Paulo Maluf (PP) is at it again. Having got the road works out of his system, he’s now arguing that charter buses be allowed to use the fast route sections of Sao Paulo’s road system. At the moment only the municipal buses can use them.

It's such a shame he's back on the roads again. He seemed to making progress yesterday by paying attention to health (although not having any apparent policies other than to turn the clock back to his time as mayor may have been a slight problem).

Victimised?
It’s been a bad day for the small left-wing PSTU (Unified Workers Socialist Party). After they were told off by the electoral court for caricaturing Maluf, they’ve again fallen foul of them. But this time the target was Jose Serra’s (PSDB) running mate, Gilberto Kassab (PFL). Last week the PSTU alleged in their TV ad that Kassab was part of a ‘bribe mafia’, which they claimed took place while he worked for the previous mayor, Celso Pitta (1997-2000). Between 1994 and 1998 his personal property increased by 316%.

The electoral court said that the PSDB-PFL coalition will be allowed a one minute right of reply during the PSTU’s TV time. Given that the PSTU only has 70 seconds, that means anyone wanting to catch any controversial utterances from the party will be hard pressed. Still, the lefties had time to comment on the decision, claiming they were the victims of political censorship.

Naturally.

Fangs a lot
It’s a day for small parties it seems. Another one, the PSDC (Christian Social Democrat Party), will announce their new candidate for mayor of Sao Paulo this weekend according to its president, Jose Maria Evmael. You may recall that the previous candidate, Joao Manuel Baptista, was initially excluded from the recent TV debate, but managed to get himself on despite having the party remove their support for him.

I said I would find out why he had been dropped from the party ticket. I had suspected that it might be something juicy, perhaps an affair which came to light or a scandal. Not the sort of thing you would expect your Christian Democrat candidate to indulge himself in.

But imagine my disappointment when the reasons were far more mundane. Apparently it’s because Baptista was attacking Serra on his TV ads in a way which angered his party leadership. His ad initially had a set of vampire teeth attached to an image of a toucan, the PSDB party symbol (and hence the nickname toucanos for members of the PSDB). The authorities banned transmission of that section of the ad and that’s were all the problems kicked off.

Evmael said that ‘it was a total surprise. He [Baptista] had produced the material by himself, hiding it and making nasty attacks which are contrary to the party’s position.’

But the PSDC’s decision to sack their man failed to prevent them from being punished. In another coup for the PSDB-PFL ticket, they’ve managed to win themselves some more time. The electoral courts decided to strip the PSDC of almost nine minutes of publicity on the TV and radio and to give Serra’s group a minute and 45 seconds to reply during the PSDC TV ad.

At this rate we’ll be lucky if there’s anyone but Serra on the box.

Into the distance
Another polling company, Ibope, has confirmed the distance put by both Serra and the current mayor, Marta Suplicy (PT) in the election race. Taken at the weekend, the poll shows Serra in the lead on 34% and Marta in second on 30%. This is an increase of 10% for Serra since the last Ibope poll at the end of July and a rise of 7% for Marta. It is also the first poll since that date which puts Serra in the lead. The next closest challengers to the two front runners, Maluf and Erundina (PSB), have 14% and 5% respectively.

In a second round the poll suggests Serra would beat Marta by 56% to 35%.

Sadly no pearls of wisdom from Maluf about these figures yet. But don’t worry; I’m sure they won’t be long in coming…

Reports may be exaggerated however

2004-09-01T09:21:00.000+01:00

In this article for Brazzil, Daniel Torres suggests that Marta's suggested poll lead may not be all it seems when balanced against the national political picture:

"It seemed that Brazilians rejected the PSDB party platform in favor of the more left-leaning PT party. But if the 2004 municipal elections say anything about Brazil's future it is that the tucanos (toucans, the way PSDB members are called) are trying to make a comeback in the political arena.

The PSDB is showing great potential in several state capital mayor races throughout Brazil. In Teresina (Piauí state), Cuiabá (Mato Grosso), Fortaleza (Ceará), Natal (Rio Grande do Norte), Vitória (Espírito Santo), Curitiba (Paraná) and Florianópolis (Santa Catarina) the PSDB candidate is statistically tied for first place or is in first place.

In São Luís (Maranhão), the PSDB candidate is in second place, in a multi-candidate race. Also in Brazil's largest city, São Paulo, the PSDB candidate José Serra, he who lost the 2002 presidential elections, is tied for first place against Marta Suplicy from the PT.

But in a highly expected run-off race between both candidates it is believed that José Serra will win with recent polls showing a 52-40% victory margin. The PSDB faces its strongest competition from the well organized PT party."

Oh, I can't decide... You choose

2004-08-31T12:53:00.000+01:00

Statistics, damn statistics!
Talk about indecisive! But then, you can forgive the voters of Sao Paulo. What a choice! According to the latest Datafolha poll, 36% admit they could change their vote, while 62% say they’re sticking with the name they gave last week. But according to Mauro Paulino, Datafolha’s director, the extent of ‘attachability’ varies by candidate. So Marta Suplicy’s (PT) supporters are the most loyal, with 69% saying they’ll stick with her. Paulo Maluf (PP) is close behind, with 67% keeping the faith. Jose Serra (PSDB) has the least reliable voters: only 59% are committed, with 39% saying they could change their mind.

But Serra does score well in one respect: 28% of those voters saying they could change state that Serra has the best chance of capturing their vote; Marta only gets 18% and Maluf 14%.

Marta has also other reasons to be cheerful: the polls show that she has swapped places with Maluf as the best prepared to be mayor. Maluf has fallen from first place, with 35% to third, with 24%. Marta has risen from 16% to 28%, just behind Serra, with 30%. Serra leads when it comes to health, but Marta is dominant in two other areas: education and transport.

Serra is also seen as the most honest, with 24% of voters believing so. Marta has also risen in the public estimation, from 10% to 18%. Unfortunately for Maluf, only 4% think that of him. He is stuck with an image associated with corruption: 62% see him as the most corrupt of the candidates. Well, when stories come out about money transfers through casinos from the US, you have to give pause for thought.

But at least Maluf hasn’t lost his sense of humour. Looking for any silver lining, Maluf’s response to all these findings is to say that ‘I’m very happy: 67% of my voters will stick while a lot of the electorate is still inclined to change their vote… I’m going to win these votes and reach the second round.’

Who needs a minister of information like Comical Ali, when you are your own?

Purple phrases
Still at least Maluf has shown a little sense this week. If you can’t beat them you join them. With Datafolha’s poll showing health as the most important issue, it was only a matter of time before Maluf stopped talking about roads. So yesterday he was taking it upon himself to criticise both Marta and Serra for their failure to provide decent health care to Sao Paulo’s residents: ‘Whoever is in need of public health in Brazil better start praying. They’ll go to heaven because, without doubt, they’ll die for the lack of hospital beds.’

Let the blood-letting begin
Monday night also saw the second televised debate on TV Record between eight candidates for mayor. The candidacy terminated by the party. However, he decided to keep running and received permission to sit in the debate. The point was brought home during the debate when he attacked Serra for being involved in a ‘blood mafia scheme’ during his time as health minister. Serra responded by saying Baptista ‘has no moral right to challenge others’ given his party’s attempt to stop him from sitting in the debate.

Note to self: what did Baptista do to get chucked out? For an active fourth estate, the media seem curiously quiet on this one.

There was also a spat between Marta and Paulinho (PDT) over whether the unemployed would be entitled to free public transport. Marta said the federal government was looking into the matter and that benefits reach the right people, the poor.

As for the battle between the big guns of Marta and Serra – the two front runners – the Folha records that the dividing line was education. Marta claimed the schools provided by the PSDB-run state were basic and claimed that ‘I’ve never constructed any ‘”tin” schools. I inherited them all from Pitta [the previous mayor] and they’re all going to be closed. Now, the state, which the PSDB has run for 12 years, has built 215 “tin” schools…’

Serra responded by saying that ‘it’s interesting to watch Marta the candidate: one day she praises Alckmin [the state governor], seeking votes; the next day she thinks it’s good to criticise him in a debate.’

As for the other ‘main’ candidates, Maluf condemned Marta’s and Serra’s ‘incoherence’ and ‘manipulation’: 'After what they haven’t done for health – Serra as health minister, Marta as mayor – they’re now promising they can do in the next four years.’ Erundina (PSB) meanwhile spent her part of the debate going on about the city’s tax system and grumbling about the vast sums being spent by the front runners on their campaigns.

The Folha also reported that the viewing figures – how the company, Ibope comes to this, I don’t know – for the debate were between around 347,000, but rose to 400-450,000 during its most heated moments. Apparently these were similar figures to those at the first debate, at the beginning of August.

Telly watching
As for the TV spots, Marta was back on the box talking about her health plans and linking them with the education centres she has introduced. Serra talked about his activities as health minister, congressman and planning minister which enabled him to carry out campaigns for generic medicines and flu vaccinations. But Maluf was unable to keep to his new found voice as health advocate, reverting to his road plans scheme and Erundina decided to try something new: tourism as a way of tackling unemployment. Her way of getting the message across? Images of the Interlagos race track which brought the Brazilian Formula One GP to Sao Paulo during her time as mayor.

Unlikely to succeed
Meanwhile a bunch of lawyers are proposing to impeach Marta for failing to make certain food payments to current and retired city workers. For the impeachment to succeed there would need to be a quorum of two-thirds in the city hall, or 37 out of the 55 councillors to have the case heard. Since Marta can count on the support of more than 40 councillors, the request is unlikely to proceed.

We are not amused
Finally, some good news for Maluf. He electoral courts have given him a minute to respond to accusations leveled at him by the left-wing PSTU in its TV broadcast last week. The PSTU used a cartoon to caricature Maluf carrying a suitcase of money with ‘Switzerland’ inscribed on it. The court decided the satirical piece of programming was offensive and unfair.

Personally, I always say if the cap fits...