Stalled figures
Yesterday Ibope and Datafolha both published their latest polls. According to Ibope, compared to last week Jose Serra’s (PSDB) figures have fallen from 52% to 51%, but he still maintains a strong lead over the current mayor, Marta Suplicy (PT). Marta saw her share fall from 39% to 37%. In contrast Datafolha shows that while Serra fell one point to 51%, Marta has risen, from 40% to 41%. The Ibope poll is subject to a 3% margin of error while Datafolha has a variable 2% at the edges.
And both candidates are starting to suffer from a war of attrition. Rejection levels have risen, to 45% for Marta and 32% for Serra. Furthermore, 60% of Paulo Maluf (PP) voters won’t vote for Marta, while only 28% will do so. And despite it all, Maluf still went and spent R$21,000 at an event with 500 malufistas yesterday, to lobby on behalf of Marta.
Whether Marta is improving her position or not (and the rejection levels will certainly not help), what seems clear is that Marta isn’t shifting sufficient votes towards her despite the fact that there’s only just over a week to go.
posted by Paulistano Politico @ 22.10.04
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